AGAINST advice and defying all political logic, PTI chairman Imran Khan has pulled the trigger by announcing that the KP and Punjab assemblies will be dissolved on Dec 23. He made the announcement to his party’s supporters, who had gathered for a jalsa at Lahore’s Liberty Chowk on Saturday night, via a televised address that was also broadcast nationwide. The chief ministers of Punjab and KP were by his side as he made his speech, ostensibly to put to rest speculation that they may be having any other thoughts about the decision. Not only will both assemblies be dissolved this coming Friday, PTI MNAs have also been directed to collectively approach the Speaker of the National Assembly in the interim and ensure that their resignations from the Lower House — pending since April — are verified without further ado. The country can, therefore, expect yet another round of feverish uncertainty, scheming and speculation before this turbulent year finally draws to a close.

Due to the risks involved, few believed that Mr Khan’s threat last month would materialise. Dissolving the two assemblies would mean the PTI and PML-Q will lose all access to state machinery during an election year. Perhaps aware of what he may be putting at stake, Mr Khan has described the move as a “sacrifice” his party is making for the country’s future. Yet, despite his assurances that he will be going ahead with what he promised, doubts continue to linger. For example, it is being asked why the former prime minister put off the dissolution of the assemblies for six days later, when he could have done it immediately. Will it not give his opponents time to regroup and either block or delay his move through the legal means at their disposal? Or could it be that he wants to leave a window open for talks? Are backdoor negotiations still being conducted somewhere away from the public eye?

If, however, Mr Khan remains true to his word, and the opposition, for whatever reason, fails to block his move, the country will plunge headfirst into its most serious political crisis since last April. Collectively, about two-thirds of all seats normally contested in a general election will fall vacant as a result of the PTI quitting the assemblies, putting immense pressure on the ECP as well as the federal government. All of these seats will need to be filled within a 90-day period through by-elections. With the economy already in dire straits and the PDM government demonstrating an inability to take decisive measures due to the prevailing uncertainty on the political front, this will greatly worsen the situation and the country will suffer. Mr Khan should have continued to fight for an early election through dialogue and negotiation rather than to upend the chessboard and expect the government to accept defeat.

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022