LAHORE, Dec 27: Latest reports and estimates suggest that the domestic cotton production target of 12.5 million bales has already been achieved and may even exceed the target. However, analysts doubt the estimates’ accuracy and say the target’s achievement will only be possible by stretching established principles for calculating the output.

The latest figure for cotton arrivals stood at 10.2 million bales while arrivals for the same period last year were 11.7 million bales. The maximum possible addition to the produce between now and the last count in end February March is about 1.5 million bales obtained through picking in December and early January and farmers holding on to stocks in the hope of receiving a better price.

Rates for Phutti and lint cotton have not fluctuated much as the former have remained between Rs1, 100 and Rs1, 150 per 40kg while those for lint have been about Rs2,400 per 37.5kg. However, in view of the constantly rising demand of the domestic and international textile sector, better rates are a possibility. Whatever the change in prices, even the most optimistic estimates do not expect a gain of over 12.5 m bales for the just harvested crop.

Nevertheless, not all segments in the cotton sector look at things in the same way. Arshad, a grower and ginner, feels that the ‘target will be achieved by stretching things’ while Hasan Raza a progressive grower feels that the final count would be between ‘12 and 12.22 million bales’.

Speculations in the produce size always accompany the cotton crop but problems this time are the creation of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) that placed the target at12m bales on March 28 but, as reports of a bumper crop for the previous crop poured in, upped the target by 2.5 million bales.

It had hoped that increase in the cultivation area and better water supply position would enable farmers to achieve the target. But as criticism followed its decision, the ministry quickly retracted its target and came up with another target of 12. 5 million bales.

Even that looked difficult at one stage because of unprecedented rains but it now seems that this year’s crop would be between 12.25 to 12.7 m bales.