Oil wilts on US weather forecast

Published December 20, 2005

LONDON, Dec 19: World oil prices wilted on Monday after heavy losses last week, as traders focused on forecasts of warmer weather across the northern hemisphere, particularly in the United States.

New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in January, fell 66 cents to $57.40 per barrel in pit trading, after losing $1.93 on Friday.

In London on Monday, the price of Brent North Sea crude for February delivery shed 79 cents to $56.34 per barrel in electronic trading. It sank $2.27 on Friday.

The price of oil rose had risen slightly in earlier Monday trading “after Friday’s two-dollar slump”, analysts at the Sucden brokerage firm said.

Crude futures had fallen on Friday after long-range forecasts from the US National Weather Service showed above-average temperatures in most of the United States from January to March.

During the first 15 days of December, oil prices had gained eight per cent owing largely to a cold snap in the northeastern United States, a region which accounts for some 80 per cent of the country’s energy demands.

“The market had a lot of support from the potential for a colder than usual winter in the US and Europe, but apart from the recent cold snap that doesn’t look like it’s happening,” Sucden analysts added.

“If other forecasters back up the National Weather Service and call for a warmer than usual winter, only months after predicting a colder than usual winter, then we should see a certain amount of weather premium disappear from the prices and see Brent head back towards $50.”

However, CALYON analyst Mike Wittner cautioned that “it is still early in the winter”.

He said that “the possibility of a sustained period of colder than normal weather will limit any downside” for prices.

US stockpiles of heating fuel, demand for which peaks during the northern hemisphere winter, are 13 per cent higher than at the same stage last year.

Meanwhile, prices would likely settle this week in the run-up to the Christmas and New Year holiday period, dealers said.

“Trading before Christmas is usually very steady,” said Dave Ernsberger, Asia oil director at Platts.—AFP

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