NEW YORK, Dec 8: The cotton trade will focus on demand when the US Department of Agriculture hands out its monthly supply/demand report tomorrow, analysts said on Thursday.

The US cotton crop should rise further when the data are released at 8:30 a.m. But demand will take center stage, particularly any revision in the estimate for imports by China, the top consumer of the fiber in the world.

The fulcrum will be the foreign numbers in the (USDA) report, Keith Brown, president of commodity trading firm Keith Brown and Co. in Moultrie, Georgia, told Reuters by phone.

The market has shifted its focus from supply to demand.

Last month, USDA raised its forecast for Chinese cotton consumption in the 2005/06 marketing year (August/July) to 42.5 million (480-lb) bales from the 41.5 million bales estimated in October.

Chinese cotton imports were upped 500,000 bales to 16 million bales, according to the USDA.

Some adjustments are likely to production in key countries with Chinese economic growth dominating cotton consumption, said a report by Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for First Capitol Group in Atlanta, Georgia.

She said late heavy rains may have dented India’s cotton crop and poor weather may have also affected Pakistan.

USDA forecast India’s cotton imports last month at 800,000 bales which was unchanged from the preceding month, while Pakistan’s cotton imports were pegged at 2.0 million bales, up from an earlier estimate of 1.6 million bales.

The analysts said there will only minor changes to the U.S. cotton crop.

There shouldn’t be a surprise, said John Flanagan of brokers Flanagan Trading Corp.

Brown added: I think the US (crop) will bump up a little bit.

Mike Stevens, an analyst for brokers SFS Futures in Mandeville, Louisiana, predicted USDA would raise its estimate for US cotton production by 150,000 bales to 23.4 million.

He kept his estimate for US cotton exports unchanged at 16.2 million bales.

Johnson said a rise in the crop in Texas, the top growing state in the country, should boost the US cotton harvest to 23.455 million bales.

Last month, USDA forecast US cotton production in 2005/06 at 23.16 million bales, against the preceding month’s projection of 22.72 million bales. —Reuters