LAHORE: Punjab ex­­pec­ts a 12 to 15 per cent in­­crease in cotton acreage this year, whereas the farmers put this figure at around 35pc, especially for early sowing, saying that many positives are working in favour of the crop this season.

Farmers believe that the early sowing gathered brisk pace because the entire acreage cleared by the Mustard crop — a substantial one — has gone to cotton. When it was cleared in February, the maize window was missed and rice sowing time had not arrived — so the whole acreage went to cotton.

Imran Shah, a farmer and a seed seller from South Punjab, says cotton this year started with a very positive perception. Last year, rates — both international and domestic — remained high for the entire season, incentivising farmers for this year. The weather cooperated and the crop was managed with a few sprays and relatively little investment — multiplying farmers’ income.

“This experience provided the conducive context to cotton this year,” Mr Shah says and explains: “Though the early sowing window falls between February and the first week of April, farmers were found securing seed early December this year. This positive economic sheen pushed farmers for early and expanded sowing. How much would it translate into actual yield, only time would tell? But the beginning has been very positive, at least in the south. The only question mark right now is water availability, which is hampering the entire operation. Add extreme loadshedding during the last three weeks and diesel availability to it, which kept tube wells silent, and one worries on this account.”

The Punjab government, which conducts growers’ opinion surveys before every crucial crop, expects a 12 to 15pc overall increase this year, over last year’s 3.16 million acres. It, however, concedes this is a mere survey and the actual picture would emerge in its actual acreage survey in June — when the process gets completed. In the core cotton belt, where over 90pc crop is sown, the expansion may be around 10pc. However, in the upper part of the province, the increase may be more than 100pc but its impact on the final figure may be marginal, explains one of the government officials.

Abad Khan, another cotton grower from south Punjab, thinks that though cotton acreage is enhancing in his area farmers’ reluctance to go for it whole hog is also visible. The farmers had a good season last year and want to go for it. “But, their confidence in the crop is not fully restored yet. Yes, if get another good (current) year, next year may see cotton fully restored to its position as the biggest kharif crop.

Their reluctance is also generated by the chaotic seed sector. Most of the seeds available in the market are of unknown parentage and performance. The early germination issues only added to their fears. Weather, which made last year’s high performance possible, is turning nastier by the day — adding to the farmers’ reluctance. Water is yet another problem, making sowing operation difficult and so is continued diesel supply and pricing yet another source of confusion for farmers.

Though the government is maintaining the price of diesel, it is also found telling people daily how difficult it is for it to keep the price at the current level. The amount of increase that it says it was subsidising is nightmarish for farmers. If it goes up by says another Rs100 per litre, as the official explanation suggests, the farmers and farming would be facing a doomsday scenario. All these factors are still holding farmers back, Mr Khan observes.

Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2022