THE critical domains of the economy and foreign affairs have taken a back seat as the political leadership has been left to scramble for continuing in power. This seems to be rather dicey in a world that is trying to deal with fragile energy markets and food security in its Covid-battered existence, and global peace in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In addition to tales of human sufferings, the war has disturbed global commodity markets, disrupted supply chains, hiked freight charges and posed challenges to the global financial system after the West slapped harsh sanctions on Russia and excluded it from the SWIFT system of money transfers. Experts and economists have predicted slower growth and an increase in inflation worldwide.

Instead of strategising to deal with the evolving global challenges, Islamabad appears to be too busy to care. Global experts have included Pakistan amongst the more vulnerable nations where the impact of the fallout of war is expected to be severe owing to the resource-deficient country’s dependence on oil, gas and edible imports.

It’s time to lie low as there is no chance of any clarity till the no-confidence move is over

Just as the masses are doing, businesses are also watching closely the events unfolding at a bewildering pace under the full glare of the media spotlight. With the final outcome not quite certain, the whole saga is keeping business houses unnerved.

The common man is desperately waiting for the debilitating economic stress to ease off to the extent that it possibly can, while the business class is dreading a hostile reaction of the West to the hard stance of the government towards the US and Europe. The handshake images of Prime Minister Imran Khan and President Putin in Moscow on the day Russia launched its attack on Ukraine has already placed the country in an awkward position.

Some like to project the current situation in Pakistan as the expected manifestation of civil unrest over inflation and job losses, while others link it to be the outcome of deeper structural imbalance. And then there are those who see the struggle rooted in efforts to uphold the supremacy of civilian leadership.

Argumentative Pakistanis can debate the politics, but they all agree that the economy and its challenges have taken a back seat for now and things will be difficult irrespective of the final outcome of the no-confidence motion in parliament.

The leading lights of business class, when approached for a comment, were evasive. Afraid to land on the wrong side of the current or the future set of rulers, they shared their disappointment with the political class privately, saying it was frustrating to watch the politicians “stoop too low whenever tested”.

A senior business leader commented” “Prime Minister Imran Khan and his confidants are inciting violence much like Trump did in the US. How can they not understand the consequences? If politicians fail to resist the temptation to take their conflict out of parliament it can make the country drift towards anarchy. Yes, we are worried for our businesses, but we are more concerned about the safety and security of our family and the future of this country.”

Musadaq Zulqarnain, of Interloop fame, believed that “irrespective of the outcome of the vote in parliament or the movement on the streets, the economy is not in a good shape. It will get worse because of political turbulence which will be followed by popular measures to please the masses without fundamental corrections.

“Pakistan needs a sustained growth of 7-8 per cent for several years, powered by an increase in exports if it wants to come out of its economic troubles. The only solution is a consensus document — the Charter of Economy — which must be vigorously followed irrespective of the party in power,” he said.

Nasser Hayat Magoon, former president of the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), said the troubles had aggravated in the last couple of years. The budget, he thought, has failed to spark much interest among the legislators. In his opinion, it is influenced by “a select group of businessmen that encircles the leadership”.

Sources in the Ministry of Finance told Dawn that the budget exercise initiated in January has been in progress at the routine pace.

Pulling out his wish-list, Mr Magnoon said: “The FPCCI suggested simplification of taxation, which was promised but was resisted by the tax bureaucracy. We do not expect a business-friendly budget. The timing of the budget will be contingent on how the present chaotic political situation settles.”

He said the private sector needs to communicate with political parties and sensitise them to the variety of problems that are being faced by businesses. He warned that street agitation in the current charged environment may have serious consequences.

Mian Anjum Nisar, another business leader, lamented the lack of clarity in politics, while Majyd Aziz was critical of mismatched priorities of successive governments.

Regardless of the concerns voiced by the business community, everybody realises that at least in the short term, there is no chance of any clarity till the no-confidence move is over.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 21st, 2022