ISLAMABAD, Nov 13: A three-member panel of international experts has concluded that a flow of 8.6 million acre feet (MAF) of water per annum downstream Kotri was required to contain sea intrusion, environmental degradation and related irrigation losses.

Informed sources told Dawn on Sunday that the panel had submitted its final decision to the inter-provincial steering committee led by I. B. Sheikh, the chief engineering adviser.

The committee is expected to refer the verdict to the ministry of water and power on Monday or Tuesday for implementation.

The decision is final and binding, notwithstanding some minor reservations from Sindh and Punjab, since it was appointed through consensus in November last year and requires immediate implementation. The appointment was made from amongst five experts recommended by the World Bank.

The panel comprising South African Dr S.M. Basson on water resources, Frendo J. Donszy of Mexico on irrigation and Mr Schultz of the Netherlands on environment remained in Pakistan for about 10 days recently and analyzed three different studies commissioned by the federal government on the overall irrigation impact of water releases downstream Kotri.

The panel reached the conclusion that at least 5,000 cusecs of water should flow every time throughout the year below downstream Kotri. Total flow of water requirement downstream Kotri at this rate is estimated at 3.6 MAF.

Another five MAF of water, the panel said, should be released downstream Kotri during the monsoon season - making a total annual flow requirement of 8.6 MAF.

These sources said this requirement of 8.6 MAF water escaping downstream Kotri has to be met out of the joint water pool of the four provinces. However, Sindh’s assessment of water requirement is on the lower side while Punjab says it is on the higher side. But these reservations would make little difference since there is no need for further consultations as the verdict is binding, a senior official said.

On the question of environmental impact of water requirement downstream Kotri on the country, as a whole, the panel of experts has given some recommendations which are not binding. It suggested an allocation of 1,000 cusecs of water throughout the year to meet environmental needs of dry areas of land in Sutlej, Ravi areas besides similar land in Sindh.

The verdict of the panel of international experts is expected to put to rest a longstanding dispute among the provinces, particularly between Sindh and Punjab over the question of water leakages downstream Kotri, as agreed to under the 1991 water accord.

Last year, three consultants were appointed to conduct different studies on the overall water requirement downstream Kotri. To monitor these studies and issue a verdict, the three-member panel of experts was appointed in collaboration with the World Bank to ensure transparency and impartial arbitration.

The studies by the consultants had proposed a requirement of at least 20 MAF (million acre feet) of river flows downstream Kotri to counter looming ecological disaster and up to seven MAF to counter sea intrusion.

The Punjab government and Wapda have estimated about 10 MAF of water requirement downstream Kotri as against Sindh’s estimates of about 20-MAF to avoid sea intrusion-related losses.

The study-I on water requirement downstream Kotri to counter sea intrusion has found that more than seven MAF of water was required specifically to stop sea intrusion up to Shirazi Bund in the wet season.

In dry season, the water requirement was estimated at three MAF per year, while in average flows a minimum of five MAF of water flow downstream Kotri was recommended as inevitable by consultants.

The study-II conducted by a four-member joint venture had recommended a total of 20 MAF of water downstream Kotri, including 15 MAF for mangrove forests, 0.25 MAF for agriculture, 0.301 MAF for fisheries, 0.14 MAF for environmental protection and 0.36 MAF for drinking and household water requirements.

The study-II had estimated that the reduction in river flows caused severe damage to the delta, eliminated about 43 per cent of mangrove forests and 15 MAF of water was required to avoid further loss.

It said about 7,317 hectares of agricultural land had been intruded by sea and another 740 hectares of land was being claimed by sea every year.

It further said about 30 per cent of forests had been damaged over the past 30 years and the annual ratio of forest loss increased manifold in the last five years. A number of species of trees had vanished in the areas downstream Kotri.

It also observed that reduction in water flows downstream Kotri had completely wiped out a number of fish species and the famous Palla fish was close to extinction.