WHEN I first came across John Donne’s poetry as a teenager, I never realised that there would come a time in my life when his words would be a reminder of what we have ignored at a human level: that a global crisis would affect us all irrespective of where we are situated in the world, and that our wealth, our technology or our hubris would not protect us in the short run. These lines are a stark reminder of our interconnectivity and our helplessness when it comes to our common fate:

“No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main…”

Covid-19 has been one of the greatest equalisers of this century, as rich or poor, young or old, advanced or backward, north or south, however we define the contradictions that beset modern societies, are equally at risk. Countries like Pakistan are walking a tight rope when it comes to addressing the pandemic, something Prime Minister Imran Khan has alluded to in his recent speeches. The country’s already overburdened healthcare system and declining economy will not be able to sustain the burden of massive contagion or the economic ramifications of an extensive lockdown. Furthermore, 38 per cent of the population that lives below the poverty line relies on vulnerable sources of income and lacks the economic wherewithal to sustain itself in times of crisis.

Low-income households will be the hardest hit by the crisis.

Continuing with a full lockdown is an effective strategy in terms of reducing contagion and flattening the Covid-19 curve; however, it also places an undue burden on low-income families given their economic vulnerability. At the same time, if the lockdown is discontinued, the very same households will suffer the most if infected by the virus, while women will face the greatest repercussions as they will take on the burden of caregivers.

Not only that, an extensive lockdown can also lead to domestic violence increasing within households. Truth be told, the notion of social distancing itself is a luxury when viewed in the light of overpopulated low-income communities, where on average 3.3 people live in one room. The stark reality is that if nothing is done or if the lockdown is not effective, over a 100 million people will be infected by the virus in Pakistan.

The situation on the ground is dire, as a recent telephonic survey conducted with 1,000 low-income families highlighted that 91pc of such households don’t have regular sources of income post lockdown. A majority of such households are struggling to feed themselves, and lack the cash to purchase food, which is their top priority. Undoubtedly, poverty levels amongst individuals in informal employment are twice as high as that of individuals in formal employment since most lack social safety nets, and will therefore be the hardest hit by the pandemic.

Undoubtedly, Pakistanis have responded to the crisis by demonstrating their generosity and distributing food packages, while the government has also initiated a relief programme to address immediate concerns. The question then arises — how long can this continue, and what happens when short-term relief has been provided to some but not all? Feeding the multitudes in these times would be a feat as the overall outlay to ensure food security would be over Rs400 billion/Rs450bn, according to one estimate, while the economy may contract at 10pc to 15pc post pandemic.

From the perspective of low-income households, there can be no doubt that a multipronged economic rehabilitation programme is required. The most immediate need of such households is managing their day-to-day cash flows, so social security nets and government-led cash payouts would need to be continued and properly targeted post Covid-19. However, these would be inadequate if not supported by more effective and medium-term approaches, including access to finance through specialised lending programmes, which should enable low-income entrepreneurs to kick-start their businesses.

Many microfinance providers are facing existential challenges as, post lockdown, business has come to a halt since financial services are provided at the doorstep of customers. There is a need for the State Bank to establish a risk mitigation fund in collaboration with other stakeholders that can stem the current liquidity crisis being faced by the microfinance industry. This should essentially have a two-track approach, at one level to bolster and sustain microfinance providers through the liquidity crisis and at the second level to help low-income households restart their livelihoods post crisis. There is no doubt that the economic rehabilitation of low-income households is going to be a Herculean task, and will require joint efforts by the government and the development sector.

The writer is founder and managing director of Kashf Foundation.

Published in Dawn, April 26th, 2020