JERUSALEM: Israel has begun evacuating Jewish settlers from Gaza and a bit of the West Bank under Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to “disengage” from conflict with the Palestinians.
The pullout is due to take four weeks.
Following is an outline of key issues arising from the first removal of settlements on land Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and Palestinians want for a state.
WILL GAZA BE PEACEFUL AFTER WITHDRAWAL?
Egyptian security officers are training a special 5,000-man Palestinian force to enforce order and prevent looting in emptied settlements and army bases. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has begun revamping a Palestinian security apparatus plagued by corruption, a lack of clear lines of authority, poor motivation and factional gangs. But reforms face stiff internal resistance. Islamist militants have gained de facto power in wide areas of Gaza. Lawlessness may continue to afflict Gaza at least in the short term.
CAN GAZA’S ECONOMY GET OFF THE GROUND?
Not unless Israel eases its grip on land, sea and air approaches to Gaza. The Jewish state says such steps could happen, but wants better security assurances.
Palestinians say isolation has caused economic meltdown and bred violence in Gaza. Israel wants to remove forces from Gaza’s border with Egypt, its only outlet to the Arab world, but wants Cairo to show it can stop gun-running to militants. There are talks on a road or rail corridor between Gaza and the West Bank. Israel says Gaza can plan a seaport. But it balks at allowing Gaza to reopen its only airport.
WILL PULLOUT LEAD TO ‘ROAD MAP’ PEACEMAKING?
Unlikely in the near term. Israel rules out US-sponsored “road map” talks on Palestinian statehood without dissolution of militant groups. Palestinian officials agree bloodshed should stop, but not to disarmament without assurances of a viable state through talks. They fear such prospects are fading as Israel keeps expanding larger West Bank settlements. Diplomatic deadlock after the pullout could rekindle Palestinian revolt. Sharon may count on isolating fresh conflict by keeping Palestinians inside Gaza and behind a barrier being built in the West Bank. Tough US intervention may produce compromise on a basis for talks, but a final peace deal looks far off.
WILL PULLOUT STRENGTHEN SHARON?
He will be in the driver’s seat for re-election if Gaza ceases to be a source of serious attacks, West Bank militants remain largely quiet and chances for peacemaking rise. If, as rightist pullout foes predict, Israel gets hit hard anew by militants hoping violence will bring more withdrawals, Sharon could be ousted by Likud foe Benjamin Netanyahu in a party primary, with an early election by spring 2006.
WILL PULLOUT BOOST ABBAS?
Abbas, seen as a moderate, will gain leverage over militants if the pullout pacifies Palestinian areas, gives Gaza access to the outside world to develop its economy and spurs the “road map” process. —Reuters
