THE country’s business community is shocked and nervous over the court verdict in retired Gen Musharraf’s treason case. It is hard to say if it is fear, shock or sadness that dominates their reaction. The majority, however, predicts a neutral impact on businesses as the dust settles down in a few weeks.

Bankers, barons and brokers fondly recalled the “golden times” (from 2002 to 2006) when they were facilitated to multiply their wealth exponentially in speculative markets and the economy grew at rates rarely achieved before and never after.

In 2005, Pakistan hit the annual growth rate of 7.6 per cent, more than double as compared to 3.6pc in 1999 when Musharraf toppled the Nawaz Sharif government and self-appointed himself as the chief executive of the country.

It is another story that the growth rate proved to be too fragile and crashed to a mere 1.7pc in 2008, the year Musharraf was forced to resign. It took Pakistan 10 long years under successive PPP and PML rules to scale up the growth rate to 5.4pc in the 2018-19 fiscal year before it slipped back once again under Prime Minister Imran Khan’s tenure.

Background interviews with businessmen confirm that gainers of the period remember Pervez Musharraf and own him even after the special court declared him a traitor

Optimists in the government project a growth rate of 3.4pc during the ongoing fiscal year, but most assessments place it under 3pc.

The growth spurt during the Musharraf–Shaukat Aziz rule is generally attributed to a dollar windfall in the wake of 9/11 after Musharraf capitulated to a US ultimatum and sided with the West on the ‘war on terror’.

However, critics point to mismanagement of generous dollar inflows in that period. The country witnessed bubbles in the capital and property markets instead of strengthening of infrastructure and basic industry. However, the undeniable fact remains: the country’s growth did spike in Musharraf’s time.

Background interviews with businessmen confirm that gainers of the period remember their benefactor and own him even after the court declared him a traitor. The level of support in the corporate circles for a retired military general who hung his boots over a decade back was astonishing. Many leaders shared fond memories of their personal interactions with the Musharraf–Shaukat Aziz duo.

Thinking heads in the corporate Pakistan were seriously worried, as they did not see the decision as a one-off expression of judicial activism. They reckon that the special court’s decision could be potentially disruptive. They found it to be reflective of changes of tectonic proportions, bringing their basic understanding of the power structure in the country in question.

“This is new, but I am not sure if it’s in a good way,” a perplexed executive said. “Businesses grow and succeed in a predictable environment. This court decision can throw the entire system out of balance and open a Pandora’s box of complicated issues. We have no clue of chain reactions that might follow. If nothing else, it will again drag the government’s attention to politics at a time when the economy needs undivided focus to recuperate.”

The corporate class of Pakistan might have softened their stance towards politicians and democratically elected governments, but their reaction to the court decision against a former military dictator indicated that their love affair with the army is not over. They miss direct rule that afforded them a free hand to play the market to their advantage. No rule-based civilian system where all stakeholders enjoy some rights and participation can ever afford to offer perfect impunity to anyone including businessmen.

The elements who do not agree with the dominant narrative in the corporate circles were too scared to air their opinion. The president of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) was an exception. Despite assurance of anonymity, many businessmen cut short the conversation on the subject over the phone and promised to share their views in person later on.

There are reasons to believe that a few top patriarchs of dominant business families of Punjab partially funded the anti-Musharraf movement that ousted him, but even they preferred to keep a low profile, particularly after an official pronouncement by the Inter-Services Public Relations. They did not respond to multiple calls. A leader when pressed said that he has paid and is still paying a heavy price for speaking his mind in the past and can’t afford to step on anyone’s toes anymore.

The stock market that opened the week on a positive note lost it momentum as the news of Musharraf’s conviction trickled out. It lost almost all of the gains when the detailed verdict was announced on Thursday, nosediving by nearly 950 points. As a result, the market that opened on 40,916.59 points on Monday closed the week at 40,832.99.

FPCCI President Daru Khan Achakzai had no sympathy for retired Gen Musharraf and insisted that it was a law and order matter that has been decided by a competent authority. “I don’t see any fallout of the special court decision on the economy or the business in the country,” he spelled out clearly.

When reached over the phone in Lahore, Pakistan Business Council Chairman Syed Yawar Ali declined to offer any comments. Through his staff, he messaged: “This is not our subject and there is no comment from the PBC.” Mr Ali heads five firms including Nestle Pakistan and sits on the boards of two dozen companies.

M. Abdul Aleem, CEO and Secretary General of the Overseas Chamber of Commerce and Industry, was concerned about the fallouts. He emailed the following response, “The Pakistan’s economy after a very challenging 2019 had only recently started to show sign of stability and growth. The country was getting attention of various key stakeholders including some international investors.

“Unfortunately, we have noticed a few recent events, some planned and some unplanned, which have unnecessarily dented this environment of confidence building. In order to promote investments including FDI (foreign direct investment), the economy needs stability, and such events, without going into legality of the action, create instability which is very unhealthy.”

Majyd Aziz, president of the Employers’ Association of Pakistan, did not mince words and strongly supported the deposed president and now the convicted general. He believed the news would hurt the country’s interests exponentially. Besides routine arguments of targeting one of the many and an unfair trial, he said the high growth achieved under Musharraf absolved him of deviations from rules, if any. He talked about his multiple interactions and how the most powerful person at the time listened and attended to issues of the private sector.

Gohar Ejaz, a former president of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, held up the safest bet: waving the card of patriotism and equating loyalty to the country to its martial force. He spoke highly of Musharraf. “I am saddened. It’s an emotional issue. The country needs headlines on achievements,” he said. However, he did not see how the verdict can affect the economy unless there is an institutional showdown.

Zubair Tufail, a former president of the FPCCI, without commenting on the merits of the decision, saw it as a sign of changing times. He was not too worried and expected the situation to settle down soon.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 23rd, 2019