Whether coming from Lahore or Islamabad, the election situation on G.T. Road changes completely upon entry into Gujar Khan tehsil of Rawalpindi district.

Almost all the buildings and every electricity pole is decked with party flags. It is one of the few places where rallies are under way in full swing – motorcycles, rickshaws and cars with speakers blaring party songs. The processions get in each others’ way but there is no tension.

Gujar Khan is one of the least developed areas of Rawapindi district. The Syeds are more bull-headed than the Rajputs (Bhattis) and Gujjars (Chaudhrys) living here. This is why around 800 army and air force personnel have been deputed for election duties in areas falling under PP-9, with Darkali Syedan leading the race of sensitive polling stations in the area, along with Daultala, where several killings occurred during the 2013 elections. Yet, even security personnel acknowledge that there is no party-based tension over Gujar Khan tehsil’s three seats.

The situation seems to have turned in favour of Raja Pervaiz Ashraf

“There is one National Assembly and two provincial assembly seats in Gujar Khan and everybody acknowledges that [former prime minister] Raja Pervaiz Ashraf is the rightful candidate from NA-58,” says an official of the Special Branch posted here. Similar views are not only expressed by an official of the Intelligence Bureau, but also the supporters of Chaudhry Mohammad Riaz, PML-N candidate for PP-8.

As supporters gather at the residence of Chaudhry Riaz to take out a rally, the hot topic is sympathy with Hanif Abbasi over his conviction and comparisons with Raja Pervaiz Ashraf. The latter, PPP candidate for the National Assembly seat, was elected MNA from the area in the 2002 and 2008 elections, bagging 81,761 and 80,247 votes respectively. However, he lost in 2013: Raja Javed Ikhlas of the PML-N won, getting 121,067 votes, whereas Raja Pervaiz Ashraf got 67,146 votes.

The situation now seems to have changed. “People respect me more than ever as I was close to them even when I was out of system,” says Raja Pervaiz. “Besides, the development work initiated by me has significantly helped uplift the area.”

But his confidence level could primarily be due to PML-N infighting; his chief strategist in the campaign is Raja Irfan Aziz, cousin of PML-N candidate Raja Javed Ikhlas (Raja Irfan Aziz was also the PML-N’s chairman in UC Noori, the native village of Raja Javed Ikhlas).

Many houses in the Noori area have hoisted PPP flags. Meanwhile, Iftikhar Warsi, a PML-N MPA in the last assemblies, and Shaukat Bhatti, another former PML-N MPA, are both openly opposing Raja Javed Ikhlas.

“Others, too, are hunting the tiger,” says Raja Shoab, supporter of Shaukat Bhatti (whose younger brother Raja Faisal Aziz Bhatti is contesting as an independent candidate). These groups, including the Tehreek-i-Labaik Pakistan, Tehreek-i-Labaik Islam and the Muttahida Majils-i-Amal, will dent the PML-N vote bank.

The main contest is expected between the PML-N and the PPP candidate while Chaudhry Azeem of the PTI, who is also the brother-in-law of Sir Anwar Pervaiz (UK), is banking mainly on young voters. His native area is close to Azad Kashmir, away from the mainstream. At the provincial assembly level, the situation is in favour of both the PTI candidates, Javed Kausar at PP-8 and Chaudhry Sajid at PP-9.

“The favourable situation for Raja Pervaiz Ashraf is not due to the PPP but because of his personality and efforts for the uplift of the area,” says Riaz Mughal a local PML-N activist. Former PML-N MPA from PP-8, Iftikhar Warsi, is supporting PTI candidate Javed Kausar against PML-N candidate Chaudhry Riaz, creating a dent in the overall party votes. Meanwhile the PML-N is divided in PP-9 too, due to differences with Raja Javed Ikhlas.

Published in Dawn, July 24th, 2018