ISLAMABAD: For the first time in its history Tarbela dam will hit dead level during the height of the monsoon season, due to low rainfall and diminished snow melt - Indus River System Authority (IRSA) said on Saturday.

Irsa is bracing for Tarbela dam to reach its dead level of 1,386 feet on Sunday as current water level at Indus River at Tarbela Dam was 1,387.82 feet that is merely above the dead level. July and August are always months of peak inflows in the dam situated on the main stem of the Indus River.

Meanwhile, a senior official of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) says such events are visible signs of climate change, which has also resulted in disrupting traditional weather patterns.

“Traditionally May and June are the driest months of the year but the cloudless sky and high heat led to melting of glaciers and snow in Western Himalayas,” the official said adding, “As the temperature rose to 30 degrees Celsius and above in Gilgit-Baltistan mainly around Skardu area snow melting results in inflow of water in Tarbela – but it did not happen this year.”

The official added that rainfall in almost all of GB area had been low during winter months of 2017-18 which added to reduced water storage in Tarbela dam.

The figures released by IRSA show that inflow of River Indus at Tarbela was 133,100 cubic feet per second (cusec) and outflows were 145,200 cusecs, due to kharif demand for cotton crops, sugar cane and paddy sowing.

As a result the irrigation requirements of Punjab and Sindh will be suffer from a shortfall in the next 3-4 days.

However, Irsa spokesman Khalid Rana said that the authority has increased outflows from Mangla dam from 25,000 cusec to 45,000 cusec.

The water level in the Jhelum River at Mangla Dam was 1,123.70 feet, which was 83.70 feet higher than its dead level of 1,040 feet whereas the inflow and outflow of water was recorded as 46,500 cusec and 30,800 cusec respectively.

Other rivers have recorded comfortable inflow, with inflows in Chenab at Marala at 43,400 cusecs and outflows at 13,500 cusecs.

Currently the only river at low flood level was Kabul at Nowshera with inflow of 49,800 cusec and the outflows too was 49,800 cusec.

The release of water at Kalabagh, Taunsa and Sukkur was recorded at 183,100, 183,300 and 35,100 cusec respectively.

The met office has predicted that a weather system carrying good rainfall will approach next week by Tuesday and Wednesday that is likely to bring increase inflows in all major rivers.

However the official added that there was a need for an extended study to determine the new timings for cropping patterns and even water usage by the agriculture sector.

Mainly in view of changing weather conditions the met office has established a National Agromet Centre (NAMC) to relate meteorological services to the agriculture sector of the country, as well as promote awareness related to water and weather status to the farming community.

The recent advisory released by the NAMC is about crop management practices related to the irrigation practices. It has advised that the cotton and sugarcane farmers should take adoptive measure accordingly and the irrigation should apply according to weather conditions and crop requirement.

The advisory is aimed to conserve water by suggesting that irrigation water should be used only when required.

Meanwhile, in Karachi, caretaker Minister for Agriculture of Sindh Khair Mohammad Junejo has said there is an acute shortage of water in Sindh and the water level in the Tarbela dam is at the dead level surface.

The harvesting season of cotton crop is in progress and water present in the canals would exhaust within 10-15 days which would badly hit the cotton crop thereby affecting its production, he said while addressing the curtain-raising ceremony of Pakistan Horticulture Vision (PHV-2030) organised in the Federation House on Saturday.

Federation of Pakistan Cham­bers and Commerce Industry (FPCCI) Vice-President Waheed Ahmed warned the food security of the country is now at risk.

The agriculture sector is confronted with serious issues of global warming, climatic changes, water shortage, lack of research and development and unawareness to the latest trends in the sector, he said.

Published in Dawn, July 8th, 2018