Sir, Did you ask your Chinese hosts why Srilanka and Myanmar are being arm twisted to hand over their startegic ports and land to China ?. Same fate awaits Pakistan because there is no way we will be able to repay Chinese debt.

Being economist, you should know that cheap Chinese exports thru CPEC will destroy Pakistani industries so annual rise in 2% GDP is just a wishful thinking.

Pakistani's workers are unskilled if compared to the workers of other countries.Complete lack of technical education has left them by the wayside as other countries march on.China is right.They are not here to invest their money and at the same time provide elms to this illiterate, unskilled boorish population whose numbers should be reduced for the benefit of Pakistan.

A security problem for the Chinese working on the CPEC and other projects was predicted in Pakistan. The Chinese did not see the threat. Now they are aware of the physical danger.

Pls note china is not making investments , they are giving loan to pakistan to set up projects. The manpower , the machinery , the material is all from china. Its creating demand of all sorts but to be fed by china from china.I dont understand what benefits the ports and roads will give to pakistan if its not directly benefiting the economy. Pls make a detailed analysis of financing , control , and operation of projects and share it with public to remove any apprehension. PAKISTAN NEEDS INVESTMENTS NOT LOANS.

What do you think about technology and expertise needed in constructing good road and infrastructure? How many Chinese experts needed to make such construction project a success? May be project management and finance and controlling 5 to 100 people? Why there are so many expat needed for road construction project?

Loans provided on concessions..... author need to ask what % and then compare with other world institutions.... before concluding on its positives

"The goodwill that Pakistan enjoys among the Chinese is perhaps unparalleled"

Ask a common man to try getting a visa to China and (if they manage to get one) travel to China, they will soon understand that no goodwill exists. China is doing business and they see a 200mil market which is now exclusively their's. What a deal China has got - buy a country and all its people for just 46 Bil !!

Every project has got two sides and one is positive and one is negative. Sir, you have only presented positive side of the project without highlighting its negative impact and how to counter about it. Naturally Chinese will be surprised at the criticism because their huge investment of billions of dollars is at stake in case of negativity. China simply wanted two things i suppose - 1. Access to the pakistani and other CAR, Europe and Africa. 2. For economical one, it has to pass through roads and pakistan has the important connecting point. But Pakistan lacks infrastructure. So, chinese are building infrastructure for their use and also in order to take Pakistan along, they have sweetened the deal with other power projects. No issue upto here. But, as leaked by Dawn, the chinese are viewing CPEC as more that of using pakistani lands for agriculture (as only 17% of whole of China is cultivable) and wants to access pakistani markets also to dump their obsolete and outdated tech.

CPEC is good if we also have Leaders who speak for Pakistan and want this CPEC to be good for both the nations. That is the mentality to do business mutual benefit. Yes China is going to get benefits from it and so do Pakistan but Pakistan do need a good highly educated Cabinet of ministers, may be like what President Musharraf selected. We have the capability to turn around Pakistan but like South Korea but good leadership is need so badly and Judiciary has to do the job, it's their turn, they already showed by outing Nawaz they mean business and will uphold Pakistani Law and no one is above the law. Now they should continue to do clean our looters for the sake of Pakistani innocent people who need education more than anything.

We do love China and yes most educated people in China know about Pakistan and their friendship, they still remember the earthquake assistance Pakistan gave to China. Though most Chinese don't know about Pakistan.

SinoPak Iron Brothers 4 Life!

@Baloch Sir, do not worry about loan, debt and interest. The IMF will bail us out as we are a nuclear power and too big to fail

Not sure why China is concerned with people of Pakistan discussing about pros and cons of CPEC. Healthy discussing is part of any democracy, something China probably doesn't know about.

Pakistan has missed its boat where as India surfed it out and established a software industry that earns them billions of dollar yearly. We are still stuck in bad governance , feudalism, terrorism , corruption and lawlessness. Pakistan should consider the CPEC as a blessing because that the only bridge that will take them to the next century. CPEC may not offer immediate opportunities for Pakistani businesses that haven't really contributed much to Pakistan 70 years of history.... However CPEC will create opportunities for a common man in near future. Sometimes opportunities are not earned they are created.

An excellent article, the world is starving for investment. Surely the one that are focused on the negative side are the pessimist ones.

This is how the game is played yesterday their was an article critical of Chinese and today eulogizing Chinese.So job done.

The following conclusion of the former Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan must be seriously considered by the relevant authorities:

"These perceptions may be right or misplaced but we have to investigate and take measures to resolve some of the genuine problems faced by our Chinese partners. "

Well done Mr Hussain . Uninformed criticism .conspiracy theories and the dreaded Red Tape need to be addressed . Will the political turmoil spare any energy and time to do some needed corrective action ?

Thank you for writing article on this topic. Whether right or wrong but your views raise questioning ideas and a starting point to debate. I hope other scholars will positively add on to this.

If there was transparency in all dealings by the government in Pakistan in CPEC related negotiations, there would have been no negative thinking on the subject.

Chinese developed Hambantota Airport in Sri Lanka in 2013. The traffic here is 3000 flights a year and around 50k passengers a year. Surprisingly the airport registering loses of around $18 million per year. However Sri Lanka government is paying $17 million interest on loan from China every year. So ultimately who was the beneficiary of this great work by China? Definitely not Sri Lanka, perhaps Chinese got their airbases in strategic Indian ocean region. Hope we Pakistanis do not end up in any kind of mess due to CPEC.

Dr Ishrat has written an article for readers with a wider perspective. The critics appear to be narrow minded and lack any perspective. Past 60 years no one has invested in Pakistan and we are surviving on foreign aid, which dictates our misplaced foreign policy

Now Chinese have decided to invest and we are putting road blocks and greviences

It reminds me of kids that start fighting as soon as you give them toys.

Such bad behavior.

@Ravi chauhan - When loans are defaulted, the assets turn into investments for the lender.

Very true, we much listen to their concerns and resolve them. We are very thankful to them for this huge investment they created in times when no other even NRP are not willing to invest in Pakistan.

We hope that relations between Pakistan and China will further flourish and strengthen and both will avail the benefits of CPEC.

Don't worry Pakistan will stand up in technology innovation. Government is okay to pay billions of $$$ to innovations and setting up jvs fake Chinese BMWs, AUDI, TESLA, APPLE and lot many innovative brands for great Pakistani skills. Soon we will be exporting 50% of trade share to rest of the world under brand Pakistan, even to Israel, India & USA.

At this time we have borrowed 46 billion from the Chinese to buy their goods worth 46 billion. First step winner : Chinese They get an economic boost of 46 billion In a few years down the road we have to start paying it back. If we can't then we have to lose something in return. What is that I don't know but surely Chinese will ask for things worth in billions. Agricultural land ? Infrastructure? Ports? Second step winner: China How much technology can we expect to be transferred? They have a billion + population. Surely no shortage of manpower. Maybe some obsolete , polluting production will come to us as they are now viewing themselves as a developed country. Third step winner : China Any winners in Pakistan?

Please make sure business generated by Chinese "investment" generates jobs and infra demand for Pakistanis, not Chinese. Otherwise, they are simply indebting us to provide work to their people, their companies.

Sir, Chinese are right about their concerns, but much like everything else we have to blame our own Govt. Many things are not in favor of Pakistan and only Chinese are taking benefits. e.g Jobs, pollution, import subsidy, taxation, visa relaxation etc. They are importing everything (Literally everything) and taking their money back and even labor is from china. I am working on one of the CPEC project & can tell you that there is no one to protect the interest of employees. We are like second-class citizens in our own country. Based on my experience let me tell you, it is rightly called a "New East India Company".

This is one more attempt to sale CPEC to people. Basic question is about transparency of the project terms & conditions which is unknown so speculations, apprehension are bound to take place.

Pakistan should never forget its self interest in making any moves towards China. But must also not forget that China is the only real friend we have in the region and flexibility and careful handling is most important.

The govt may think buddying with China, can help bully India. But it is the question of time before it back fires. Like termite, they are going to penetrate. It will be late to fix, by then.

Once again a very thoughtful and genuine writeup. We need to open our eyes and sieze the opportunity. Pakistan can consider itself fortunate that CPEC happened in 2015 and not 2035 (thanks to George Bush and Trump whose fateful decisions made China a superpower 20 years earlier)

CPEC is doing everything for China and nothing for Pakistan. Pakistan had zero input into it's planning. It is producing zero employment in Pakistan. All the money is going right back to China. The only thing Chinese want Pakistan to do is provide them security. One wonders if our leadership and bureaucracy is more corrupt or more inept. Was it so hard to ask for Pakistani labor to be employed. Nobody is asking for Alms ( someone said elms? Ah illiterate! ). This is a country of hard working people and no one has the right to come from abroad and reduce their numbers for being poor or uneducated.

You are very right. The problem is on our side, we just want to sit back, relax and leave everything to CHINA. There is greater need to streamline our processes and systems to create ease of doing business. We have to invest on our human resources and if we don't do it than the fears of CPEC becoming an other East India company would materialize.

Said the wolf to red riding hood.

CPEC is a great benefit for both China and Pakistan and we all hope without any problem the CPEC project will be complete soon. It's not only Chinese desire to complete the project but Pakistani's are also working hard to complete. CPEC is no doubt a helpful for the entire region. To get more knowledge and updates about CPEC projects visit: CPECBulletin .

It is amusing to see whenever there is something related to CPEC in news; some hostile elements (from across the border too) jump in with their own concluding remarks. Most of the people who have commented are forgetting that Author is trying to raise the same point here.

My dear sir,

Did you tell the Chinese that they are destroying the Pakistan's ecological system by not working on the green standards, although, it is really prudent that IPPs' did came but, the load shedding during this Ramazan was experienced even by the regular bill payers as well nevertheless they did came and at that time too I remember the environmentalists shouting about the ecological damage.

@Farzana that is all very fine for the uppish people like you to say, privileged to get the best education that is available to you but, one thing you are forgetting even non-educated people may be trained to perform any work best example is Gadani work force so, you have no right look down on the people inferior to you where education is concerned because, these locals are as good a human being as you. Miss. upstart

@Maqsood: This is what India said too, but for obvious reasons no one in Pakistan took it seriously. For a change (galti se bhi sai), why can't Pakistan look at India on dealing with foreign investments. China has invested much more in India. Massive Chinese investments are in the pipeline (eg. The Wanda Group, China's biggest conglomerate) is finalising plans in Haryana). The terms of engagement is pure business. No loan nonsense. We do not shout from the rooftop. While, Japan has agreed to give a loan of INR 88,000 crores to India on Bullet Train project at 0.1% interest to be paid over 50 years with first lot of payment after 15 years. And most importantly, Modi's insistence of skill transfer & Make in India is commendable. The bullet train project will give 5000 direct and 15000 indirect employment...all Indians. The multiplier effect on ancillary units is huge.

Japan is providing $ 19 billion, 85% of project cost for constructing Bullet Train corridor from Ahemedabad to Mumbai as soft loan at 0.01% interest payable over 50 years.

"Come to my embrace and I promise you peace forever - said the scorpion to its prey..." Hats off to the Chinese, what a masterstroke this article is!!

frankly speaking, as an Indian I should be least concerned about financial stability of Pakistan or any neighbouring country and should be concerned about problems faced by India, which are more than enough.

but the problem is that in a connected world , problems of neighbours often have spillover affect in the long run

and so I sincerely wish for a prosperous Pakistan

I will summarise in two points

first of all most of my Pakistani friends do not seem to differentiate between loan and investment. returns on investments are subject to profit and CPEC funds are loans which will have to be repaid respective of profit or loss

so please have no illusions

secondly, please always negotiate for the lowest interest rate and liberal repayment plan

and the best example is Japanese funding for bullet train project in India

yes we have lots of issues and are still a third world country with a lot of issues, but we are commited to end this

and I wish the Same for Pakistan

Timely article by a respected expert.

China-Pak destined to be joint superpowers - world will see.

Being sceptical is not a bad thing. We have to think from every perspective. There is a difference between west and China specially in "Human Rights", "Transparency" and "Law".

Chinese needed infrastructure for their own use. So they gave the loans to Pakistan to build them. Now the loan is paid to Chinese to build them too ! Is that how it is ?

No other option with the world abandoning the country, they have accept if China want to build road, -ok. if they want to build port -ok. If they want to build airbase -ok. If they want Gilgit baltistan - ok...If they want anything - ok ok ok.

@Asad "It reminds me of kids that start fighting as soon as you give them toys."

In Pakistan's case these 'toys' are to be repaid. It is not free. If China was to really help Pakistan, they should have said: let us invest in Pakistan and build a highway and we will collect from the tolls. In this way, Pakistan would not have been burdened with payments and interest.

Great article. It will help clear doubts of those who are skeptical. The author has taken pains to justify that it will bring only benefits.

CPEC for prosperity & security. Thanks Iron Brother; Long live the friendship.

The insistence by Indians that CPEC is bad for Pakistan has convinced me like no other argument that it must be good for Pakistan.

Good article Sir... Study should be made and clear information should be provided in this regard

The dearth of developed Pakistani entities could be true because many industries had to shut down their plants due to incursion of additional operational costs or had to shut down permanently or relocate to countries like Bangladesh where they also faced problems operating the plants. However, there is a certain lobby in Pakistan (business and politicians) who are raising doubts about Chinese investment, failing to provide a conducive environment of cooperation. Perhaps Chinese are pointing towards that business class that has reservations about Chinese investment, the solution lies in their own hands, revive Pakistani industry, don't blame Chinese, increase your exports, currently there is not much to boast about in Pakistan, hence seeing Chinese exports in market (but there are other countries like turkey, iran etc too which are exporting here) bcz our own exports declined, so it is strictly Pakistani own created problem

I see unreasonable fears being spread by so " well known" Pakistanis, they are creating fears about a future that they haven't seen yet. When the elite complained about Governments' lack of interest in reviving industry, they forgot that there are many examples around the world where people took care of their interests and innovated themselves, that is not seen in Pakistani people, they complain a lot and expect a magical government to resolve their problems with a magic wand, same expectations from CPEC now, CPEC is a long term project, it won't reap harvest before it is due, try being cooperative rather than obtuse and irrational

@Mohsin. I totally agree with you. The need of the time is to reduce corruption at the top level (eliminating it in its entirety is a fairly tale) and uphold law & order. Definitely CPEC has a significant cost attached to it & is not favor of Pakistan in many forms, but its the need of the hour. The infrastructure that will be built is going to benefit the country in the long term.

@Asad If you think external policy is flowed one , then correct it first.

China is right about no one else interested in investing in Pakistan. But if terrorism was dealt with strongly, there would have been other countries as well. There would also have been competition. India has got a dirt cheap loan from Japan for bullet train

Very well said. We must start training our young people who will be able to respond to the technical needs of CPEC. We have the great advantage that we are able to speak English.

Glossing over real concerns. Chinese cannot take electricity with them, agreed. But they will be charging higher tariff and nothing can be done about that. Dearth of talent in Pakistan is there, agreed. but Chinese are known to bring their own people even for elementary jobs. Chinese are shrewd, they sense the vulnerability and are simply biding their time. Soon, the entire coast of Pakistan may be handed over to Chinese, who knows!!!

Sir, the author has been very candid and open in conveying the views of Chinese investors about the lack of local qualified managers, technically sound work force and lack of single window to deal with officials to promote the forward movement of a project. The Pakistan people must remember the way way the Chinese arm twisted Sri Lankan and Myanmar govts to get their ports and other assets for their failure in their payment schedules. Indeed an eye opener for every Pakistani.

@Farzana Do not loose faith. Pakistanis are smart, not boorish. The biggest asset Pakistan has is it collective brain power. Use it wisely.

@alba Yes. This is a problem that we must fix.

CPEC is the blessing from God,and gift from china to our nation and generation.this is greatness of Chinese govt,people to our peopled and reward of real friendship.Due to CPEC ,our generation can learn skilled,high technology in science,principal of governing and progressing in all field of life.the nation which is dreaming to have train in space on 4000 km/hour without polluting environment should be ideal for Pakistani generation.China is great country planning to get helium from moon for civil energy,we should collaborate in all field of life with china to learn and then applied in that knowledge in Pakistan to make Pakistan great country for our generation.we i love china and Chinese people,proud on china friendship.

@Wahab well I also hope your prediction comes true. The roads are long and narrow filled with dangers and many more miles to go. We will falter but we will also get up and continue on. Economic growth is way forward. Somewhere the journey has to start. CPEC will drive us forward.

What is Pakistani elite so worried about, whether there is CPEC or not they hardly pay any taxes or pay which is very much less than the justified tax figure they should be paying? the rest of the nation will pay back Chinese, for which they haven't attached any specific time. Another reason for opposing CPEC and the energy projects came from some guy who says that Chinese will destroy ecological environment of Pakistan, get a reality check mate, CPEC hasn't fully started yet. Pakistan had long given up cleaning its rivers, doing anything about checking pollution levels, has no effective plans to get rid of industrial waste, so people could only have a sound stance in a case if their own hands are clean. Why are people so worried about the disasters which await us, if there was no CPEC, would they be still worried, I don't think they would be

What is Pakistani elite so worried about, whether there is CPEC or not they hardly pay any taxes or pay which is very much less than the justified tax figure they should be paying? the rest of the nation will pay back Chinese, for which they haven't attached any specific time. Another reason for opposing CPEC and the energy projects came from some guy who says that Chinese will destroy ecological environment of Pakistan, get a reality check mate, CPEC hasn't fully started yet. Pakistan had long given up cleaning its rivers, doing anything about checking pollution levels, has no effective plans to get rid of industrial waste, so people could only have a sound stance in a case if their own hands are clean. Why are people so worried about the disasters which await us, if there was no CPEC, would they be still worried, I don't think they would be

"They request that a focal point in the government be established and empowered to secure all approvals and decisions." This is the core point of this article and obviously very genuine.

" Chinese analysts and participants are concerned about what they see as the misrepresentation of facts by many Pakistanis." The Pakistani elite is not ready to digest the change in economical order. The west needed a large very rich elite in every country as their products are intended for rich people only, because they produce high end products in small quantity. They don't care about 70% living in poverty as 30% of consumer is enough. Chinese need huge number of decently living population. That number cannot be achieved with 10% extremely rich people. The elite will have to leave the way for global development. They will no more masters of the system. That is what is worrying them. The propaganda against the CPEC is the manifestation of their worry.

@BAXAR elite in Pakistan already ate up the country, finished it, without developing any feasible plan about the future, the younger generation will inherit a system that is intricately messed up from top to bottom. They can not overcome these problems if the country is to survive without outsiders' help

@mkb "Japan is providing $ 19 billion, 85% of project cost for constructing Bullet Train corridor from Ahemedabad to Mumbai as soft loan at 0.01% interest payable over 50 years." Smart move by the Japanese. They invest a little amount to keep a potential future competitor away from developing it's own technology. This is why they don't like Chinese. Indians are more forthcoming. Japanese are known for their arm twisting tactics!!!!

interesting views from our Chinese friends, though the concern about China being another east india company I have to say is a view from people who haven't actually bothered to read the history of the East India company. The analogy is quite frankly absurd.

It is good that such views are being brought to Pakistan's attention and through dialogue they should be dealt with. I have little doubt they will be dealt with as its in the interests of both parties.

@Pakistani Please do not jump to conclusions.Governments may have vested interests but most of the individuals are well meaning and they are pointing towards facts. At least read various comments and then make a better informed decision/comment.

@Farzana its your perception ,Pakistan labour is highly qualified and skilled labour.

@Anand I do love to feel the angst in indian voices like yours when something positive happens in Pakistan.

You don't need to worry about Pakistan's economic issues, we will deal with them. Regardless we will remain independent and are growing in strength, Politically, Economically and Militarily.

Sir the blame goes to our government as the nation has been largely kept guessing about the grand deal reached with Chinese and its political and economic fall outcomes.

Chinese are doing no different from what Americans do in emerging countries and what India does in Africa. Give out cheap loans dressed up as investment, create jobs for their own people while creating influence over the country. It is a win win win situation for the powerful and the rich.

China sees CPEC from 'North Pole', Pakistan sees it from the 'South pole'.

Being an economist the author should have provided some detail as to how 2% year on year GDP rise would be achieved. Since the power tariffs are 30% higher in Pakistan when compared to other countries like India, Bangladesh, Srilanka etc; I am not sure how the additional power will help the growth in Pakistani exports as anything produced by the power in Pakistan would be 30% costlier than its competitors.

Very basic things is to know what is the objective of One Belt One Road Project for China. Is it for betterment of world poor nations/ neighbors or to exploit market , natural resources and to increase their political empire. China is not like USA & Saudi Arabia who can help poor nations like charity. The trade balance with China even for India & USA is very unbalance & favoring China so what will be position with Pakistan. What they have done in Sri Lanka & Myamar for recovering their debt is a matter of study & to get future course of action if Pakistan could not honor their debt liabilities.

@Baloch Being a banker author should also worry about resultant NPA from Pakistan's small & medium industries , which can give big jolt to banking system.

@M. Emad It is not a matter of seeing, it's a matter of doing, what are Pakistanis prepared to do if there is no CPEC? or even if there is? Not much, I presume. I think people might have had enough of these "imaginary theories and predictions about Pakistan" if you have a strong case, prove it on action, not on caricatures

If Indians are so much against it, there must be something good in CPEC for Pakistan.

@Shalone How about making other friends in the region and the world?

Dr Ishrat Hussain should be made Finance Minister of pakistan for 5 years with the agreement of all political parties and should be given a free hand to sort out the financial mess. I know it is a dream and a wish and will be opposed by PPP and PMLN as it will stop all the big corruption. We have brilliant people like him ready to serve the country but political mafia is looting the country left right and centre by appointing dishonest and incompetent people to important positions. No need to give any example.

A genuinely good perspective of the other side which was mostly missing in our description of CPEC. Thanks Dr Ishrat Hussain, you are always a notch above.

@Keen Reader I agree, but I do not understand the model where China give 50 billions in loans which we will have to pay back with i terests so we can develop thwir tradelinks which will earn them billions of dollars. This is not the way to attract FDI.

@jatinder "most of the individuals are well meaning and they are pointing towards facts." The road to hell is paved with good intention. And the road to heaven is not a popular one. Secondly, can you point out "facts"? What you call facts, are in fact hearsay.

I don't understand why the Chinese are complaining about the Pakistani Media and CPEC? Thanks to Pakistani Media for emphasizing the Transparency,the creation of jobs for local labour,safeguarding Agriculture and local Industries.Even the Chief of the Armed Forces said that every aspect of the CPEC should be minutely analyzed. The fact is Pakistan has to back in 30 years $90Bln with 17% Interest to China. We should never forget this.

How can investment of mere $46 billion do all those things that you want? Out of 46, 15 will be lost in bribes, 12 will be profit for Chinese only $19 billion will be invested. How can anything meaningful happen? Beats me. Too much rhetoric and too few deeds.

I have been working with Chinese companies as a translator since 2014. We government should safeguard the national interest regarding local companies and labor rights. Our government should do check and balance without any hesitation.

@Dr.khizar Hayat Sargana try applying for Chinese visa my friend.

Pakistanis do not doubt the strength of friendship between the two countries. The Pakistani official are sometime not forthcoming about details of various aspects of CPEC. People's perception is that Pakistani officials will line their pockets with inflow of cash and the people will be stuck holding the pan. People do not know if the investment is based on profit sharing or fixed interest rate and how much. Many details are not shared.

Those who think that it is like East India company forget that Pakistan is over populated is a small area and is of no interest to China.

I think it is important to have dialogue on this issue with the segments of Pakistani society who are showing concerns. It is also very important to have people from local communities involved (but only those ones who are know to be trustworthy and are not corrupt).

@Reality_check In industries like steel, cement, metals etc. power costs are almost 60-65% of operational costs. If power is 30% more expensive then such industries will never be competitive. Moreover, costs of projects will always be higher than rest of the world. If you have to grow at the rate of 2%, then the overall growth rate that Pakistan needs to aim will be in the region of 15-16% which practically looks impossible

@925guy Yes there will be lot of jobs generated and those will be 90% providing security to Chinese people, their business establishments, their ports, trucks and vehicles when they pass through the highway.

There is a severe lacking in sharing the details of CPEC with the business community openly, hence, they listen to every hearsay not knowing what to believe. The govt is known to have been lying in the past so a high level group with good reputable people at the top level appointed by govt is required to interact with the business community at every level thru chamber and associations and impart details and prospects of this potential growth candidly and openly to counter the trust deficit and to encourage better coordination and understanding of the whole prospect which can potentially take Pakistan out of the present state and bring wellbeing to the citizens of this country.

Very rightly pointed out.

@Baloch I would also argue why they are called as loans and not investments. To me it looks like a hybrid between the two. Our money, our machinery, our man power. (If) we increase your GDP growth by 2%, will help you to pay back OUR loan. but conditions apply; no guarantee, and maintenance cost for OUR man power, OUR machinery and OUR interest must be paid before your GDP kicks in.

Hence Indians conclude, welcome to another satellite city of China

"Had it involved extraction of natural resources from Pakistan for the benefit of the Chinese, this criticism would have been justifiable. On the contrary, the benefits of this investment would be exclusively appropriated by Pakistan’s industries and households that would no longer face load-shedding while the country would record a 2pc annual rise in GDP growth. "

1) China is deploying its idle funds in projects that have sovereign Pakistan government guarantees for returns of 17-34% in dollar terms. .

2) the whole circular debt problem is due to high cost of electricity. The high cost of electricity which is unaffordable to people is also the reason for a degree of load shedding which is quite inconsistent with the actual productive capacity. Any project that guarantees such high rates of return is not going to be affordable for most people or deliver the 2% incremental growth rate

Can you rule out that China will try to grab Gwadar port the way it has happened in Sri Lanka

Chinese are expert In bulldozing their way through being communist nation.They along with their press are not used to democratic way where some section of population are bound to express opposite views.It is therefore unrealistic to have long term business deal with China.

@Mahen. Yes, indeed, the apartheid Bharatis are most successful in USA, at criminal activities, frauds, scams, hacking USA Databases to steal personal info for use in scam-games, stealing industrial & government secrets, espionage, convenience-stores frsuds, hidden bookkeeping, hotels frauds, bankruptcy frauds, fire & insurance claims frauds, gambling frauds, banks frauds, stock markets frauds, food scams, medical claims fraud, prostitution, etc, the list of Bharati-Indians criminal activities is too long! These apartheid Bharatis are out to fleece America & the world.

@Yusuf Well said. Good analysis. But no leader or economist in your country is forecasting the danger in this projects. They are passing the burden of repaying the heavy loan on every head of next generation. Very sad.

@Mohd Azhar Ali : Chinese can not be held responsible for poor foreign traffic, however the positive side of this deal is Sri Lanka has gained a new airport. Its old airport was in a dilapidated condition.

@Farzana Pakistani workers develop skill by enrolling into the technical schools in Pakistan, who is stopping them.

After dwelling a great deal on your familiarity with everything Chinese, you have just restated the popular stereotypes about CPEC and mostly selling Chinese interest.

Partly the fault of the Pakistani government in addressing concerns including: lack of information on CPEC projects, time line, opportunities , its impact on local businesses, workers - and methodologies to counter that.

As much as I ma against increasing responsibilities and thereby, the role of govt, given govt leading the COEC and its labor force illiterate, unskilled - govt must need to spend in disseminating more information and be transparent.

second, the processing times, the red tape, the various agencies involved are a standard. Pakistan govt departments and bureaucracy must make itself efficient BUT not purely for CPEC work. Institution building is important so we should not fall into this person-specific/project specific facilitations as that's a slippery slope.

business is the game of taking risks, jolts, jumps and ups and downs. Its not an easy deal. Be careful; many around the world are perturbed.

I have no interest in CPEC whatsoever but can't help reading it i Dawn all the time with various opinions. I have however not read anyone voice their opinion about training Pakistani citizens in all aspects of this massive construction that could crate thousands of jobs for decades and beyond, if and when, the people involved, mainly Chinese decide to employ Pakistanis at least 90% of the force instead favoring the Chinese labour and establish their foothold and cheap imports. Just saying...

Very sensible and logical approach towards Pakistan's national interests.

In a real world, both parties would look after their national interests. It's the foresight and the art of negotiation that counts. While Pakistan must safeguard its national interests, it must provide a level of comfort to its trading partners also. Playing a victim is not a good policy.

@Baloch Wow, i thought all Pakistanis believe that China won't treat Pakistan as Sri Lanka.

Pakistanis were awed by the offer of 52 billion dollars investment given by the Chinese, when no one else wanted to invest in Pakistan. So they were so grateful that they did not look at the fine print. Now they are finding out that the investment is really a loan at above market rate and most of the benefits go to Chinese.

The question is, who is raising these doubts in the media and who is paying them to do so. Better U der standing and transparency is needed to explain to the public.

If the Chinese are so honest they should force Paksitan government to make public the terms and conditions of cpec. This is the height if duplicity. You manage to bring in a massive 45 billion into a country showing them as investments without anyone getting to know the real terms.

@Pakistani no no it is Bad. Please listen.

I wonder why Indians are more worry about CPEC loans as if they are going to pay China .

Mr.Ishrat Husain was the former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan and I am sure he knows his economics well.

If he cares to look into You Tube videos about Chinese investments in Africa and the resentment it sometimes engendered, he might care to look deeper into Pakistan's deals with China,

Good luck with that extra 2% GDP growth with CPEC!:)

comments and analysis from across the border makes me laugh.

everyone is analyst of some sort.

keep on argueing. its fun to read how people from across the border thinks and suggest.

All such massive projects have pros and cons. The CPEC holds out both promises and perceived threats to Pakistan, at many levels; and the Pakistani and Chinese governments must work closely together to create proper public awareness by addressing all public concerns. There should be detailed sittings with Pakistani stakeholders and also, some sort of basic nationwide educational/awareness program. Also, a joint Pak-China public complaint forum must remain in place for ongoing resolution of all and any issues .

China will convert pakistan into next singapore insallah. We should hand over full control of cpec to them , corrupt politicians can do nothing. So best thing is take rent with china each year for cpec

@KUNAL MAJUMDAR, GURGAON As you go along in introducing these trains teach your public the benefits of basic hygiene; not defecate in the open or make these super clean trains filty that will look truly Indian in few years..Your numbers look good on paper but you are still importing and will continue to import technology from Japan .They are not going to give this technology which Japan and China has monopoly on a silver platter. And why India has not developed this technology on its own as China did with the largest track in the world?

In a nutshell India would never have accepted any deal with China or any other country on the terms and conditions China imposed on Pakistan for CPEC Pakistan has already gifted Aksai Chin to China; if Pakistan defaults on the loans what will it gift to China this time? Gilgit and or Baltistan?

Red tape in the bureaucracy will not only affecting CPEC related projects but also our local industry to flourish. Second you cannot ban or stop social media. You have to tolerate opposite views and if you need to respond, you have the choice.

What are percentages being offered to Pakistan in overall perspective?

@Jyoti "Out of 46, 15 will be lost in bribes" Is it a coincidence that these investment are coming at a time when there is the first crackdown on money laundering at top level, in the history of the country? This is why CPEC is not popular among the elite. They understand that this massive investment come with a price. That price is that their cut will be going back to China as interest, instead of their own pocket. What has Pakistan to loose if the interest rate is high?

@PAK-OZ "comments and analysis from across the border makes me laugh."Enjoy a lot reading them as well. Thanks Dawn for providing such entertainment, almost on daily basis.

@ROHIT PANDEY "If he cares to look into You Tube videos about Chinese investments in Africa" Yes the best economist have mastered their subject by watching YouTube. Unfortunately Dr. Ishrat is completely illiterate in this regard.

@m.j. "I wonder why Indians are more worry about CPEC loans as if they are going to pay China." In a way, that is not entirely untrue. If CPEC goes ahead as planned, the development promised to India by the west may not succeed. That plan can only work if the Chinese doesn't. In order to stop Chinese plan Pakistan is needed to be on Indian side. In order to convince Pakistan, India will have to share the dividends with Pakistan. Pakistan will ask a an enormous price to part ways with China. After paying that price, India will not develop as dreamed today. If India doesn't develop after paying the price to Pakistan, China will be the beneficiary. India may end up paying to China, you are wondering rightly.

@BAXAR, "Yes the best economist have mastered their subject by watching YouTube. Unfortunately Dr. Ishrat is completely illiterate in this regard."

What's wrong with YouTube? All big news agencies, organizations and educational institutes use YouTube - check it out for yourself. Do you mean to say one guy who wrote all non-factual article knows more than all these institutes out there on YouTube? And yes, for your information, you can master almost any subject watching YouTube videos.

@Harish " Do you mean to say one guy who wrote all non-factual article" Can you elaborate the non-factual part of the article?

@Harish "And yes, for your information, you can master almost any subject watching YouTube videos." Yes, now we can see in these comments, how Indians have mastered the subject of China Pakistan Economic Corridor. YouTube, of course!!!!

India's bullet train is being funded to the extent of 80 percent by Japan at 0.1 percent interest rate with a 50 year payback. In contrast the CPEC guarantees a 17 percent return on Equity (not the full investment, only the equity) and interest rates of 1.6 percent on the loans. Pakistan needs to be wary of the terms.

I have a shop and I give my neighbor loan to build his house. He is currently living in a hut and is looking very much forward to have his own house built. I give him loan at 5%. In addition, for all requirements for his new home, he has to buy from my shop only. If he needs bricks, he has to buy from me. For sand, cement, iron, wood, tiles ..... he has to buy all from my shop. Even workers to build his house will be kids from my home! I make a profit of 20% on all these supplies + the 5% on loan. I am a happy man!!

Does this have any similarity as to how Chinese are doing CPEC for Pakistan? Time to think!!

@Akram "analogy with the East India Company or Pakistan becoming a satellite of China, are very unnerving:"

yes, unnerving - because they know that people have started seeing through their nefarious designs

@Pakistani a really wise conclusion!

The CPEC is a no-colonialism policy. It is challenge economy of Pakistan.

@Farzana one child policy like China can be implemented in Pakistan

Things may not be all that rosy as the author says. Even Dawn newspaper had an editorial questioning the commercial terms of Chinese on CPEC project. Considering the long term implications of your country, all stakeholders must be engaged in a transparent manner & the agreements must be settled. Emotions have no place. If things don't suit your country, you should be bold to say "No" to China. It may better to do so now rather than later and make the next generations to suffer. There will be no free lunch from any country. China is no exception. It's a business deal. Hence, unless it is "win-win" Pakistan should not proceed.

In the same breath, also say whose interests are you looking after?

Ishrat Husain, may be experienced in banking but he tends to have an opinion on everything. When will we have real scholars/thinkers in Pakistan ?

we are used to spoon feeding, in the earlier period on America and then on God sent opportunities in 1979 and again after 9/11. China is providing infrastructure, we should see that price of electric power produced is well within competitive limits of our exports. We should enhance technical capacity of our labour through education at all levels for industries to be set up in industrial zones. We should request China to set up some of its sophisticated industries in Pakistan employing Pakistani technicians and labour. Our engineering industry base is very poor, we are dependent on foreign imports of even textile machinery and food processing plants. All will go waste if we fail to provide law and order without the help of army and rangers.

Our Govt should have disclosed the CPEC details transparently keeping the nation in loop with its progress which unfortunately didn't happen. So there are 2 sides of the coin, right and wrong has to be clearly distinguished and that is only possible if there is utmost transparency in this project which is made public and all reservations are addressed in a timely manner.

CPEC does bring some questions. India today signed an agreement with Japan for Bullet Train at a 0.1% loan for 50 years. The first phase of the project includes a training institution to train current and new Indian Railway employees. Majority of components for the train shall be manufactured by Joint Ventures between Japanese and Indian private companies. In future, both countries intend to take the developed technology and jointly market it to other countries. DO we see any similarities with CPEC?

@tariq "When will we have real scholars/thinkers in Pakistan ?" You seem to be one, go ahead make our day.

The fact that those raising these non issues are a minority & their known links with foreign entities & colonialists give them away & should be enough to satisfy the Chinese who are quite aware of the tricks played by the Imperialists & the colonialists.

@Iqbal M Ali "CPEC does bring some questions. India today signed an agreement with Japan for Bullet Train at a 0.1% loan for 50 years." Back in the 60s, Japan developed it's bullet train without any foreign loan or technical help, that became the best in the world till the late 80s. From then on, Japan is one of the most advance country of the world. You don't become super power with outside financial or technical help. India is better place toady than Japan in 60s, but it has chosen to make it quickly by opting for help. It's a pity, it could have gathered it's resources for a longer but steady path of it's own.

We should appreciate Chinese efforts to establish new projects in Pakistan. However, I disagree with one point conveyed by the writer that skilled workers and professionals are not available in Pakistan and thats why Chinese companies are bringing their own manpower'from Chian. May be in some specific requirements it is true, otherwise in Pakistan skilled and hard working people are available. Just give an advertisement and see the response. Due to joblessness a lot of Pakistanis are working in middle east and other countries of the world. In fact bring work force and all type of material from China for the CPEC projects is in China's interest and this policy has to e reviewed to make a win - win situation. May be it will not happen as beggars and not choosers.

@Iqbal M Ali "CPEC does bring some questions" CPEC is not about financial help to develop Pakistan, but Chinese investment to develop a trade route. That trade route can develop China and Pakistan industries once in place. China intends to develop it's north western region and has a framework. Pakistani "industrialist" don't have a clue how to take benefit from this route. It is not China's responsibility to teach them that, nor it is part of the deal. Now our "leaders" are trying to force China to give them a share from their benefit, or to face hurdles in the implementation of the project. My guess is that this blackmailing tactics will not work. They have to work hard to get their benefit, for which they are not used to, or face extinction. China and Pakistan don't need a powerful elite in Pakistan, contrary to the west. They have to understand simple paradigm shift.

@KUL DEEP Spot on! Anyone who thinks of humanity and not false nationalism knows that thirld world countries have populations which are largely wretched. Tthe fact that Indian population on average is better off economically and education/skills wise is true, but India is still way down on the HDI index, and only slightly higher than Pakistan. It should NOT be Pakistan v India. It should be Right v Wrong. Every HUMAN BEING has the right to security, access to information and education, and the opportunity to have a decent standard of living.

Chinese concern about open discourse in democratic Pakistan about CPEC is very typical of Chinese regime that deter dialogue with dissenting voices. This is part of package for working with China and democratic countries should not yield to such authoriterian ideology.

Why so much secrecy in CPEC projects/funding. Public has the right to know what are the conditions attached to loans/grants being given by CPEC. What is the exact route. Where would be the industrial zone. Majority funds are allocated for energy products; at what rate it would be available to people?

There should have been and should be discussions by renowned economists of Pakistan and if necessary foreign impartial economists regarding whether Pakistan will benefit from CPEC investment and at what cost. What are threats and advantages. So far government hasn't made public many areas/agreements that are supposed to be made public for complete understanding of the investment and long term benefits and risks. There should be discussions from all corners of the society. But till that happens there are questions and there will be some serious questions on it.....

China is doing good however Pakistan is lacking good personal to properly negotiate favorable terms for loans for us and it is not a lost cause because Chinese goods passing through this infrastructure should be charged tolls going and coming so the project can finance itself. However our problem is with our govt when our govt allowed NATO containers to destroy our roads and allowed them free transit to Afghanistan and then begging them for assistance that gets turned down every year..NS and AAZ has the best people running their personal businesses but corrupt Hijazis and QZ Chaudhrys to assist them in running govt offices. As IH said China has valid concerns and that happens in every society. China is a high tech resourceful c it could have asked Pakistan to send workers to train in China or in Pakistan as most engineers do when new projects like steel mills were started and it still not lost cause...it is cop out to say Pak has no good workers...if u r not looking u cant find.

@BAXAR "CPEC is not about financial help to develop Pakistan, but Chinese investment to develop a trade route"

Except when you have guaranteed returns, it is not an investment but a loan. When the guaranteed returns on projects are between 17-34% and that too in dollar terms, then this is an usurious loan. Pakistani awaam has a right to ask the questions it is asking. China cannot steam roll Pakistanis who have a free media like Dawn and excellent investigative journalists like Khurram Hussein.

In this article Mr. Ishrat Husain has narrated the Chinese point of view as more of a reporter and less as an economist. First fact is that Pakistan is a democracy with free press unlike China, so it is understood that Pakistanis will express their opinion freely, therefore it should not be a surprise to the Chinese. Second fact is that almost all projects are being funded by the Chinese commercial banks at higher than commercial interest rates. The question is if Pakistan can support the payment schedule which will come due soon? I would submit that Pakistani economy does not have the substance to support the pay back schedule which shall be devastating

Can the citizens of Pakistan given access to information about MoUs signed between China and Pakistan about CPEC to simply describe who will get what at which price ... how much loan will it incur @ what %age mark up and by when Pakistan will have to pay ... and most importantly, what if Pakistan could not pay in time, what will be financial and legal liabilities (if the basis of feasibility (2%GDP growth) does not materialize.

There is no dearth or financial analysts, engineering economists and honest Pakistanis (here and abroad) who could not do the Risk Analysis of "Investment vs Cost" ....

A fact based campaign will help Chinese and Pakistani governments to snub any uniformed criticism.

CPEC is a great initiative. However, one item overlooked by the author is the way the Chinese and Japanese build infrastructure projects in other countries. All the projects are package deals that cover planning, engineering, construction, and operation. This is different from Western countries that include transfer of technology and contracts with government have mandates for minimum participation percentage and localization of the project.

I worked in Korea for a US multinational organization to design and build nuclear power plants in 1980s. The contract required localization of projects in terms of percentage. Initially localization was only 10 percent and the percentage kept increasing with each nuclear power plant. My company was forced to train local personnel. In addition, I had to do market survey and had to revise American specifications to meet local conditions and ability of unskilled vendors. Korea now manufacture's and built 100 percent of the power plants.

@some facts This is a excellent point. Guaranteed returns of 17%-34% is like a loan. It is better than a loan because who would give guaranteed returns.

@Wahab this precisely is the problem . No water ,no food,no education, no law and order but no one can take away our self declaration of super powerdom.

Respected Sir,

Where these Chineses analysts were when Srilanka failed to generate as much revenue as estimated through Chinese investment in its port, this estimate was also proposed by China. In addition, why the CPEC related documents have been kept in darkness for long period of time and now the most CPEC records are gutted in Islamabad. These all facts are showing that government is just beating around the bush and is not serious about prosperous future of Pakistan. In a short sentence, China want to become next superpower as everyone know hence it is fruitful to have leased or owned territory in every Asian countries as mush as possible.

@Baloch if China get a market of 200 mln people Pakistan will likewise have a market of over a billion people. So a win win situation for Pak

Dr. Sb, 1- Pak Army is providing max security to chines personnel, 2-Your point that Pak lacks skilled manpower and experts, that is totally wrong, rather Pak is abundant in expert manpower, CPEC projects are employing chines only, few Pakistanis for petty jobs Only, 3- The Cost of projects is almost than double the rationalized cost of project. 4- The power tariff set by these companies is also more than double compared to regional plants of same kind. 5- The projects are also not efficient you can study the case of Nandipur power Plant. 5- Coal Fired power plants pollutes the environment and spread diseases amongst locals. 6- Huge commissions(corruption) are also involved in these projects(Yabaite case). 7- These are basically loans at a very high interest rate which state will have to pay. The things should be crystal clear, in case of CPEC most of the clauses are not that clear.

Wait, so a country which is giving out loans to you doesn't even want you to speak about it? That's some "investment".

@some facts "Except when you have guaranteed returns, it is not an investment but a loan." You are confusing CPEC project as a whole with the loan to implement some aspects. Pakistan has to do it's part to implement the project on it's own. For that, Pakistan asked loans from China which may not be in favorable terms for Pakistan. If so, CPEC or China are not responsible for that. China is not stopping Pakistan to get loans from other sources with a favorable term. If you think China is cheating with Pakistan, try to get 10% of that from anyone else without "guaranteed" return. Don't blame China for our leaders' inability to manage the country's needs. China claims to be a brother, not the mother. Even the most loving mother stops feeding after some time.

@hk "Why so much secrecy in CPEC projects/funding." There is no secrecy. Every single person from across the border knows each and every detail about the project. Can't you read all the comments here? They know more about this project than the Chinese government itself.

Sir, Indeed China is a good friend who is so generous to lend us world's most expensive loan - Apart from this, China also concerns about how miserable our lives are without electricity, thus obsolete and polluted coal power plants have been brought to generate electricity for us, which China can no more use because of being overcast with worst smog in the world. How kind of them to sale their dirty, useless and polluted tech on high prices to their good friend Pakistan! Not only this but they are well wisher to the extent that they bring their own manpower to implement projects since Pakistanis have no skills and are not able to do jobs in their projects!

Whereas Japan is so mean by providing $ 19 B loan on 0.01% interest payable for 50 years, for construction of Bullet Train Corridor from Ahmedabad to Mumbai.

We are blessed to have such a friend. Long Live China-Pakistan FRIENDSHIP!

@Shahbaz "if China get a market of 200 mln people Pakistan will likewise have a market of over a billion people." You are correct, but our "businessmen" are not even capable of getting hold of their own 200m market without government's help (against their cut), how would they reach Chinese market? For that they have to work, for which they are not used to.