New York cotton futures higher

Published January 6, 2002

NEW YORK, Jan 5: NY cotton futures finished firmer on Friday when a dearth of selling and small speculators on the prowl for topside stops powered prices to higher ground.

Key March settled up 0.48 cent at 36.62 cents a lb after trading 35.60 to 38.07 cents. May climbed 0.51 to 38.09 cents and back months added 0.51-0.81 cent.

It was just a lack of selling, said Jobe Moss of brokers and merchant MCM Inc. in Lubbock, Texas, adding locals got caught too short at the lows.

Cotton gapped down to its lows, with some of the negative sentiment stemming from the low sales reported in the USDA weekly export sales data where net upland cotton sales slid to a marketing year trough of 38,400 (480-lb) bales, floor sources said.

But the pressure dissipated and locals started running the market in the other direction, hoping to suck in fund accounts which stayed for the most part on the sidelines of the market, they said.

The locals were really looking for stops and tried to push it, but the trade sold it off and knocked it down from its highs, one floor analyst stated.

Cotton marketing analyst O.A. Cleveland said the key March cotton contract remains locked in a narrow 35 to 38 range and should stay there for the meantime.

The longer-term fundamentals suggest higher prices for both old crop and new crop, he said in his weekly commentary. Additionally, market lows are edging higher and higher, a clear sign of the beginnings of an uptrending market.

But, he cautioned, The potential for New York (cotton) futures reaching 60 cents is very low until late winter of the coming season.

Looking to the release of the monthly USDA production report next Friday, Cleveland said the government should continue lowering its estimate of domestic consumption and the US will likely consume only 7.3-7.4 million (480-lb) bales of cotton.

In its December production data, USDA forecast US cotton consumption at 7.9 million bales.

Technically, brokers said they believe support in the March cotton contract would be at 35.50 cents while resistance would be at 38 cents.

Estimated final volume reached 19,000 lots from the previous 4,078 lots.—Reuters

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