Europe’s eyes are on Brexit negotiations and on Germany’s election next month. Sometime after that race, attention will begin to turn to the selection of Draghi’s successor as the central bank’s president.

Rightly so, given that the ECB and the 19 countries sharing the euro are such a vital part of the global economy.

If, as widely expected, Chancellor Angela Merkel wins re-election in Germany, a slew of top European Union positions will come increasingly into play, culminating in the presidency of the ECB.

Draghi, an Italian, is not eligible to serve again after his eight-year term, which ends in late 2019.

The ECB president is nominally selected by a vote of the European Council, the group of EU leaders. In practice, it’s by a majority of the subgroup that uses the euro. How they get to that point is a little murky. Ducks are lined up in advance through a mix of consensus and horse trading of top EU jobs.

The front-runners are seen to be Jens Weidmann, president of the German Bundesbank, and Francois Villeroy de Galhau of the Bank of France. France and Germany are the two biggest economies in the region, so that should be easy, right?

Far from it. Germany’s partners have traditionally been squeamish about giving it too much influence, especially because the central bank is already headquartered in Frankfurt and was developed to resemble the Bundesbank. That counts against Weidmann. But France had its turn recently; Draghi’s predecessor was Jean-Claude Trichet. That will count against Villeroy.

Weidmann’s undeclared candidacy becomes even more complicated when you look at his and the Bundesbank’s positions on policy. The Bundesbank, founded on the idea of avoiding the type of hyperinflation that ravaged the country in the 1920s, has long been sceptical of relaxing policy too far. Quantitative easing and zero interest rates have long been anathema.

Weidmann isn’t bombastic in expressing his views and has a cheerful professionalism and easy manner. He isn’t a hard-money caricature. And with the ECB inching toward the QE exit, the central bank’s policy thrust is moving in his direction.

Germans already serve in some European economic jobs, though none them are top-tier. Werner Hoyer was just re-appointed president of the European Investment Bank, which lends in support of European integration.

Klaus Regling runs the European Stability Mechanism, which lends to aid euro zone nations and banks. And Elke Koenig heads the Single Resolution Board, in charge of winding down the bloc’s insolvent banks. Koenig’s term ends this year.

The ECB’s vice presidency is vacant next year. If a smaller country gets the nod, which might be a sign that a bigger one is preparing a path to Draghi’s job. Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos says his country is underrepresented, and he appears to be courting support for the vice presidency.

Another leadership role could come open soon: the helm of the Euro group, the college of euro region finance ministers. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem could be forced to relinquish that role after his party collapsed in elections earlier this year.

If Germany were to again forfeit the ECB presidency in the interest of regional balance, who to turn to if not France or Italy?

To narrow the question further, who to turn to while still satisfying German domestic political concerns that a decadent or indebted small country will get its hands on the levers and go wild?

One intriguing possibility involves Finland. On the geographic periphery of the euro zone, for sure, but also a founding member of the currency bloc. Present at the creation. Seen as nonthreatening, good Europeans.

Bank of Finland Governor Erkki Liikanen, dean of the region’s central banking club, is widely respected and completes his second term in July. Finland also has Olli Rehn, former European monetary affairs commissioner and now a board member at the Bank of Finland. Rehn is a strong contender to succeed Liikanen.

If Germany again misses out simply because it is Germany, that would be a pity. The country has, appropriately, invested much in European integration. Modern Europe owes much to Germany.

— Bloomberg/The Washington Post Service

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 28th, 2017