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WELL, at least it was fun. After weeks — months — of pontificating, braying, moralising and squealing by the anti-democrats, it was a change alright to see a democrat-ish type get his licks in.
And how he roared.
Good for him, good for Nawaz. The tree of democracy must be refreshed from time to time with a jalsa or two. Too late for Nawaz to save his job, but at least something different to the dire, soulless stuff that had come before.
Sadly, now that it’s over, the serious business resumes. What does it all mean?
Let’s not kid ourselves: nobody knows. The problem with judicial ousters is that no matter how political the verdict, there’s never an indication of what comes next.
Because judges don’t rule, they only arbitrate.
By definition a reactive institution — the judiciary can only rule on a dispute that is brought to it, even in the world of political suo motu — and by convention a slow-moving one, the judiciary can’t match the raw pace of politics.
Nawaz’s ouster was a judicial grenade lobbed into the political arena, presumably with the hope that when the dust settles, some kind of desirable new configuration emerges.
But Nawaz reacted unpredictably and GT Road has reacted even more unpredictably.
Nawaz has roared, but what’s his plan? The judiciary has spoken, but how much more are they willing to wreak? The boys have kept silent, but for how long?
Angered possibly more by the targeting of Maryam, and so the disruption of his succession plans, than the ouster of himself, Nawaz went back into campaign mode.
And whoever convinced him to abandon his beloved Motorway for GT Road deserves a Tamgha-i-Jamhooriat. Or at the very least, a lifetime supply of mithai.
Even a fool can now see that Nawaz is still vastly popular and, more importantly for Nawaz, he is the PML-N. Fantasises of breakaway factions or rival branches in the family trying to grab power have receded.
(In the rapacious world of Punjab politics, someone will surely attempt wresting the crown anyway. But the cost has been significantly increased — perhaps impossibly so.)
As for the GT Road turnout, neither friend nor enemy will admit the surprise — nor shock or fear, depending on which camp they’re in.
Because at the heart of Pakistani electoral politics is a mystery and uncertainty that no one involved in the game wants to admit to. The standard assumption is that everyone knows how people will generally vote.
This part of the country to that party, that part of the country to this party. This much of a baseline support, that much of a maximum. Everyone reacting logically and in a predictable manner.
But 2008 and 2013 actually demonstrated something quite different: nobody actually knows. 2008 was supposed to be a BB wave, 2013 another coalition government — and neither happened.
For two reasons. The profile of the electorate has changed significantly and, for historical reasons, no one has ever been able to test what happens if you allow successive, or triple, on-schedule, un-interfered-with elections.
Basically, every assumption about the democratic process, and who votes for whom, in Pakistan is rooted in assumptions that are loose and anecdotal, and created in times that the current era of historic electoral continuity is the opposite of.
So, GT Road has been a shock to the system. Don’t for a second believe that it hasn’t shocked the PML-N as much as it has its enemies — you can see it in the elation of one side and the anxiety of the other.
But there’s no reason to get carried away. Democracy has hardly been saved nor is it the core of Nawaz’s purpose.
Looking in from the outside, there’s three players and each has played their hand in this first round.
The court, in its abomination of a judgement, has revealed its determination to not just oust Nawaz, but its interest in shutting him out of the system forever.
The boys, via the slashing JIT report, have revealed a willingness to see the back of Nawaz, even if they don’t want to be seen directly disrupting the democratic process.
And Nawaz, via the significant political capital harvested along GT Road, has demonstrated that he’s not willing to disappear into the sunset.
The problem is obvious: the current configuration is not sustainable.
Nawaz has roared, but what’s his plan? The judiciary has spoken, but how much more are they willing to wreak? The boys have kept silent, but for how long?
From the outside, the best-case scenario is that the self-interested choices of the three main players creates some kind of beneficial, ancillary effect for the democratic project.
Some may wish that’s the court forcing a quick accountability judgement. But that’s easier said than done — a bizarre SC judgement an indication of how hard it is to assemble proof.
Others may wish that the boys just step in and wrap up this farce. But the boys’ silence speaks of an institution unprepared, and unwilling, as yet for that ultimate step.
And yet others may hope that it does not lead to the end of the democratic road, that Nawaz somehow finds the grace and magnanimity to let the democratic order continue without him. But the GT Road show has suggested otherwise.
So now one side or the other or the third will have to make the first next move. Either the court, the boys or Nawaz.
The heart says, may Nawaz do the right thing. The mind says, the court won’t tolerate this for long. And the gut says, the boys have had enough.
God bless. Happy Independence Day. Pakistan zindabad.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2017
Comments (40) Closed
Let's put everyone s ego on one side Time will prove that just like jumping into Afghan war or war on terror it will become a big mistake of establishment to disturb at least an acceptable democratic government
"The heart says, may Nawaz do the right thing. The mind says, the court won’t tolerate this for long. And the gut says, the boys have had enough" and the people suffer
Dawn leaks was one of the milestone in his journey if you remember
Circus lion roaring back.
He would not have been on the GT road , had he the capacity of doing the right thing, the boys have had enough, but as rightly said ' the court won’t tolerate this for long'.
Nawaz wants all of you to pay his taxes for him. A man who has been elected three times as prime minister, and his family, should be exempt from paying taxes.
I hope he sees the realities the day after the fever of "rally" calms down and comes down. The realities of the aftermath of disqualification are surely coming fast to his foot steps despite his trying hard to deny them. Hope this rally brings to a closure the depression of disqualification he is feeling and brings him closer to facing the real facts and possibly change the course of his political life in a better direction.
Pakistan Zindabad. Long Live My Country.
Superb article Cyril.
Excellent..... Excellent write up....
Perfect analysis.Let's pray like the heart says "may Nawaz do the right thing".(ameen)If that happens and should happen than the rest shall be history.
Yes hope sense prevails. Last thing we need is another Bhutto and Benazir in the making
Well written & analyzed Article as per the current situation.
The heart, the mind and the gut say the RETURN of Nawaz to the throne, if not impossible, is very difficult for at least next five years.
too good . commentary satire analysis all in one, long live Cyril !
Please don't try to make these characterless and soulless so called politicians into some heros. They are anything but. Nawaz Sharif motorcade crushed a young boy to death and these despicable people did not even bother to stop. Their paid police was blaring their sirens to shoo people away to make way for the deposed King's motorcade instead of tending to the little boy.
The Civilians have shown that they draw their legitimacy from the masses.
They don't need props like a PCO or the Doctrine of Necessity.
The next civilian will prune and hack the pretenders.
Watch out for the next civilian rising.
just loved it.the last para even makes more sense and it,s very true that boys will bridge the gape which is entirely undesirable but what can one do?!!
It was Not a roar but a cry of bereavement in front of the masses driven there by the MPAs.MNAs and the Councilors.Some were collected from the roads others herded from the villages.Most were not interested to what he cried about . They were there to please their masters.A few with the knowledge laughed at the ignorance of speaker as to why was dethroned.All the world knows except the speaker.He declared in parliament and in front of nation that all the record of property was available.When SC asked only Qatari letter was produced.His cry also is to avoid the jail term that is evident.I am sure Nothing can save him.
Cyril you are amazing,My vocabulary is so limited to narrate your excellence. Keep it up Bro.
What an excellent article on current status of Pakistan polity,and how well it is summed up. Bravo!!
A well articulated article that culminates on giving sucess to house of shariffs. But in reality u have kept your eyes closed on many aspects of this GT riad debacle.
The question still arises : are the ducks still in the row?
brilliant analysis of the situation....may not agree in totem but anyways an incisive attempt to understand the current political imbroglio
well articulated..GT road have always played key role in power politics
It was a cry , not roar by any standard .. and even the favourite news papers of mian sahib today reported that there were never more 25 thousand people in lahore even .. and dunya news reported the numbers via police , ib and reporters ..
It is very strange every media person has some thing to say against an elected PM who was thrown out unceremoniously despite having a majority mandate! Why NS should not show his strength which he gets directly from the masses! His outset on the ground that he had a job in his son's company is absurd.in last ten years top three party bosses have been rediculef and practically outset undemocratically!! All three leaders would win hands down in their area of influence and only way for the boys to remove them from the system is by undemocratic means and media plays to their wishes!!
To the point article. Lots of questions and the answers will be revealed in the near future.
The reason the judiciary has to ouster the PM in Pakistan is because our PM had no shame any other country the PM would have resigned as soon as the Panama papers were released.
Finally the free will of people will prevail on all other ODDS.
@afsina You mean, mandate was given to do corruption? money laudering that he has been doing for years. No wonder why he spends on metro and not education so that people can vote for him for pulao and biryani. Lol
Brilliant analysis. The gut wrenching rebelious journey will set the heart pumping, as the caravan mindlessly enters a deep political gorge.
GOOD ONE.... Cyril Almeida
@Shyam but the people themselves chose Nawaz and therefore have no one else to blame...
Good analysis of our democracy, SC verdict and NS?s political downfall or may be interruption in his PM's plan. Public are the people who put someone in the office and other institutions see that elected representatives stay honest and justify their pay and status in democracy. We are free in words but economic conditions have kept almost 97% of us slave to the British Raj that still exist. Majority of us have subservient mentality passed by our parents and forefathers. Currently we are slave to the main parties, PML-N and PPP. Parties like PTI are trying to bust this slavish mentality among mass population. Hopefully, if not the whole but if 3 quarter of the people change their mind to vote for the candidates at their own will then we can say that democracy is taking its roots now. But how and who is going to ensure a free and fair election is a big question also. NS has has weaken our institutions to his benefits. We have to break this family monopoly now or never.
We learn from history that we do not learn from history .
@Dr. Nisar A. Kayani : Let us wait, only time will tell what is the destinity and direction of the boat of democracy. Many things and events happened in this country which no one has ever thought of.
Well if you are trying to point that the decision of the court was wrong. It was much anticipated response from the writer as he has repeatedly shown biases toward the party that has ruled Punjab for a long time.
G.T road show was state supported and state sponsored and does not prove or disprove anything
Be it those with hammer, gun or vote vote all three stand as losers in this media hyped simulated game of character assassination. Having removed NS from the scene now face the mammoth challenges ahead.