ISLAMABAD: The government has set the GDP growth rate target at 6 per cent for fiscal year 2017-18, with contributions from agricultural, industrial and service sectors.

AGRICULTURE: Under the Annual Plan 2017-18 released on Friday, the agriculture sector is targeted to grow by 3.5pc on the basis of expected contributions of important crops (2pc), other crops (3.2pc), cotton ginning (6.5pc), livestock (3.8pc), fishery (1.7pc), and forestry (10pc).

The production targets for important crops are expected to be attained, given that the quality and quantity of agriculture inputs is ensured. This includes consistent availability of water, certified seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and agriculture credit facilities and better water availability.

The plan says that prospects for cotton crop in 2017-18 are encouraging as a rise in global cotton prices has spurred the domestic market. Resultantly, area under cotton cultivation is expected to increase due to the expectations of lucrative profit margins. This may reduce area under spring and autumn crops, such as maize.

INDUSTRY: The industrial sector is targeted to grow by 7.3pc during 2017-18. The manufacturing sector is targeted to grow by 6.4pc with large-scale manufacturing (LSM) growth rate of 6.3pc, small-scale and household manufacturing 8.2pc, construction 12.1pc and electricity generation and gas distribution by 12.5pc. Mining and quarrying sector is projected to grow by 3.5pc.

National savings rate as percentage of GDP is targeted at 14.6pc. The investment target is achievable given affordable energy supply, reduced political uncertainty and prospects of higher profit

The industry is expected to show vigorous performance in 2017-18 as its various sub-sectors — such as cement, iron ore and steel, electronics, food and beverages and automobiles — showed encouraging performance in 2016-17.

EXPORTS: A stimulus package of Rs180 billion is envisaged for exporters of textiles, carpets, sports goods, leather and surgical instruments to boost production and export earnings. This package is targeted to increase the profitability in the selected sectors by giving them incentive of tax rebate to increase their export proceedings by 10pc.

Therefore, it is expected that improved energy availability, better law and order situation and lower interest rate will contribute towards achieving the target of industrial sector growth for 2017-18.

SERVICES: The growth target for services sector is kept at 6.4pc for 2017-18 based on performance during the outgoing fiscal year. Accordingly, the targets of major contributors of services sector area set at 5.1pc in transport, storage and communication, 7.2pc in wholesale and retail trade, 9.5pc in finance and insurance, 3.9pc in housing services, 7pc in general government services and 6.7pc in other private services sector. The growth of all these sub-sectors depends on the performance of commodity producing sectors.

INVESTMENT: Invest­ment target for the year 2017-18 is kept at 17.2pc of GDP in order to achieve sustained and inclusive growth. Fixed investment is expected to grow to 15.6pc of GDP in 2017-18.

National savings as a percentage of GDP are targeted at 14.6pc. The investment target is achievable given improvement in ease of doing business, affordable energy supply, reduced political uncertainty, prospects of higher profit and enhanced capacity utilisation.

The investment under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is expected to improve the overall investment climate. The spillover effect from public investment under CPEC is expected to catalyse private sector and foster public private partnership.

Moreover, the lagged impact of current investments, including CPEC investments by the government, private and foreign investors, coupled with prudent monetary and fiscal policy is expected to bolster the economy.

Published in Dawn, May 27th, 2017