SINGAPORE: The United States and North Korea’s neighbours are to meet the communist government, but the tortuous road to talks may be less winding than the laborious path to ending Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
Pyongyang notified Seoul on Friday that it had accepted six-way talks involving the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia and likely to be held in Beijing.
The road to negotiations was made more difficult by a bout of name-calling when top US arms negotiator John Bolton used a Thursday speech in Seoul to describe North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as one of the world’s “tyrannical rogue state leaders”.
Such rhetoric, reminiscent of US President George W. Bush’s description of the reclusive Kim as a “pygmy” and his decision to include North Korea on the “axis of evil” list with Iraq and Iran, is almost certain to spark renewed venom from Pyongyang.
“This is Bush’s line, his moralistic line of good and evil...”, said Gavan McCormack, professor of Asian History at the Australian National University in Canberra.
“In South Korea it doesn’t wash at all,” he said, adding that such remarks on South Korean soil would embarrass Bolton’s hosts, who live in the line of fire from the North’s artillery and missiles.
Seoul wants a resolution to a crisis that erupted last October when Pyongyang admitted to US suspicions that it was developing highly enriched uranium — an ingredient for nuclear weapons.
But due to momentum for negotiations driven by China and Russia, the vitriol may not halt progress towards the multilateral talks that Washington insists upon in the face of Pyongyang’s demand for bilateral meetings.
HORSETRADING: “There will be a lot of horsetrading,” said McCormack, adding that one crucial hurdle at any talks would be the form of a US guarantee to North Korea that it will not attack since it has become clear Congress will not agree to passage of a treaty.
“But this is not the major problem,” he said.
Far more complicated will be how the North meets demands from the United States, and almost certainly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for a verifiable inspection process to ensure Pyongyang is dismantling its nuclear programme.
“It is clear that any agreement to ensure the end of North Korea’s nuclear potential will require an unparalleled level of transparency and verification,” arms control experts Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute and Jon Wolfsthal of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington wrote in a recent report.
Most weapons experts and North Korea analysts agree that verification may be impossible in any circumstances — and particularly given secretive Pyongyang’s goal of regime survival.
Kim Jong-il’s nervousness has multiplied after watching the fate of Iraq after it last let in weapons inspectors, they say.
“To ensure the survival of his regime, he appears to have chosen to build an A-bomb as a powerful deterrent against the perceived US nuclear threat,” said North Korea expert Alexandre Mansourov of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii in a recent report.
“Kim Jong-il is a quick learner, tough negotiator, and survivor,” he wrote. “He will continue to hedge any bargain he may be able to strike with the international community as long as he stays in power.”
ROLE FOR SOUTH KOREA?: As McCormack said, given the progress made by Pyongyang towards nuclear power status since the crisis erupted in October, its greater commitment to following the nuclear path and distrust of the United States, it may be necessary for South Korea to play a greater role in verification.
“The only way I can see around this problem is for South Korea to play a more upfront role. If South Korea could take the brunt of responsibility for inspections it may be easier for North Korea to have teams of South Koreans,” he said.
But Pyongyang has wanted to deal with the issue only with the United States, seeing a threat to its survival as deriving from Washington and trying to cut Seoul out of the process.
China’s role as broker has been crucial, ensuring the breakthrough to three-way talks last April and pushing for a new round of negotiations as soon as possible. At that inconclusive round, the North told the US it had nuclear weapons and was seeking to make more.—Reuters
Dear visitor, the comments section is undergoing an overhaul and will return soon.