EVERY new year brings with it a fresh dose of hope on Afghanistan — perhaps finally the Afghans themselves and the outside powers so invested in the country will find a way to stabilise Afghanistan and put it firmly on the path to peace and security. Soon enough, however, and especially once the annual Afghan Taliban spring offensive gets under way, hope dissipates and in its place a familiar gloom takes hold. But now, as a new US administration prepares to take power and the Afghan state continues to struggle to contain the Taliban insurgency, hope may already be slipping away for Afghanistan. Part of the problem is certainly the administration of US President Barack Obama. Afghanistan was one of the two wars that Mr Obama inherited that he had publicly pledged to end before the conclusion of his presidency. But Mr Obama has never had a clear strategy on Afghanistan and his policy has come to represent, in the White House’s own characterisation, ‘Afghanistan good enough’. With foreign troop and funding commitments in Afghanistan now extending till 2020, President Obama is effectively transferring the Afghanistan problem to his successor, president-elect Donald Trump.

And therein lies possibly the next great missed opportunity. As the next president of the US, Mr Trump could attempt a policy reset on Afghanistan. A new, purposeful Afghan policy would have a threefold approach: improving political stability and governance; shoring up counter-insurgency efforts; and restarting a peace and reconciliation process. Sixteen years since the start of the UN-mandated, US-led war in Afghanistan, it is obvious that even the most sensible of policies on Afghanistan will not immediately and necessarily produce the intended outcomes. However, there is reason to fear that the incoming US administration may not seek a policy reset on Afghanistan and may in fact double down on the long-standing US approach of externalising blame for the deep malaise in Afghanistan and putting pressure on Pakistan to do more.

Certainly, Pakistan has contributed to the quagmire in Afghanistan because of a policy muddle over the years. However, in recent years, Pakistan has done a great deal to correct its approach towards Afghanistan. From emphasising better border management to nudging the Taliban towards talks with the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan has arguably done a great deal of what was demanded of it for many years. But between an impatient Afghan government and a desultory US administration that has not really seemed invested in the peace process, Pakistan’s efforts have largely gone unacknowledged and unappreciated. The elimination of Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansour in a US drone strike last year and the scuttling of an incipient Murree peace process the year before were acts that greatly set back the possibility of talks — and were carried out ostensibly over the objections of Pakistan. The incoming US administration ought to study the recent past of Afghanistan and recognise that merely demanding that Pakistan ‘do more’ will not help deliver a stable, peaceful Afghanistan.

Published in Dawn, January 15th, 2017