BERLIN: Germany expects up to 300,000 asylum seekers to arrive this year, less than one-third of the total during 2015’s record influx, the Federal Office for Migrants and Refugees (BAMF) said on Sunday.

BAMF chief Frank-Juergen Weise told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper that Germany’s healthy economy and improvements to refugee services over the last year meant that the country was well-placed to absorb new arrivals, particularly as their numbers have dropped off.

“We are preparing for between 250,000 and 300,000 refugees this year,” he said.

“We can ensure optimal services for up to 300,000. Should more people arrive, it would put us under pressure, then we would go into so-called crisis mode. But even then we would not have conditions like last year.”

Nearly 1.1 million asylum seekers arrived in Germany, Europe’s top economic power, last year, putting enormous strain on the country’s bureaucracy to process claims and testing confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s right-left coalition government.

The closure of the so-called Balkan migrant trail and a controversial European Union deal with Turkey to keep migrants from reaching Greece — a main entry point into the bloc — has driven down arrivals from the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Weise said his agency had made major strides in working through a large backlog in asylum claims but that it would not manage to clear the remaining 530,000 cases by the end of the year.

He said integrating those allowed to stay in Germany into the labour market would be a “lengthy and costly” process.

Weise was nevertheless upbeat about the long-term prospects. “We can do it,” he said, echoing Merkel’s rallying cry during the crisis.

“A lot of what was going badly in the beginning [one year ago] we’ve eventually managed to do pretty well. And the economy in Germany is so good, thank god, that we can afford it.”

Public sentiment is nevertheless sharply divided when it comes to Merkel, who has not yet said whether she will stand for a fourth term in a general election expected next September or October.

Half of Germans against Merkel serving 4th term

Merkel’s domestic popularity has declined, a poll showed on Sunday, with 50 per cent of Germans against her serving a fourth term in office after a federal election next year.

Support for Merkel has weakened after a string of violent attacks on civilians in July, three of which were carried out by asylum seekers. Of those, two were claimed by the militant Islamic State group.

This has raised opposition to Merkel’s open-door migrant policy, which allowed hundreds of thousands from the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere into Germany last year.

Half of the 501 people questioned in the Emnid poll for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper were against Merkel staying in office beyond the 2017 election, with 42 per cent wanting her to remain.

In November, the last time Bild am Sonntag commissioned a survey on the issue, 45 per cent had been in favour of Merkel serving a fourth term, with 48 per cent against.

When asked about her plans for the 2017 election in an interview with public broadcaster ARD on Sunday, Merkel said she would comment on this “in due course”, but did not elaborate.

Germany’s political parties are gearing up for next year’s election. Asked in the ARD interview when Germans would get tax relief given that Germany has a budget surplus, Merkel said that would come “in the next legislative period”.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has previously said that people should not expect much tax relief.

Merkel’s Social Democrat coalition partners have promised voters increased spending on infrastructure, education and research.

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2016