THE business of government naturally tends to become subdued during Ramazan across Pakistan, including the federal capital, as daily work slows down during the fasting season.

But beyond the choices of the rozadaraan [those who fast], this year’s mood across Islamabad’s power corridors has been additionally downbeat amid mounting anxieties over the government’s future. In spite of news of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif recuperating in London from his recent ailment, rumours over his future remain as strong as ever.

Questions such as ‘has the prime minister gone on a one-way ticket’, ‘is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif about to name a successor’ or ‘is the government about to collapse’ continue to make the noise, notably during Islamabad’s otherwise sumptuous Iftar gatherings.

Senior bureaucrats accustomed to taking the cue from the mightiest of their lot — Fawad Hasan Fawad, Sharif’s principal secretary — have good reason to be confused. News of his departure for overseas sometime ago triggered a baffling question. Given that Fawad is widely known as the man behind the throne and dubbed by some as the de facto PM, his absence has set the tone for added uncertainty during Sharif’s absence.

While the army and its chief General Raheel Sharif have made it repeatedly known through different channels that GHQ has no plans to intervene, the disquiet surrounding civil-military ties refuses to settle down. Perhaps it is an outcome of past crises in Pakistan’s chequered and sorry political history which continues to have an unnerving effect.

The prophets of doom and gloom in a country where the political culture is so accustomed to one behind-the-scenes conspiracy after another, refuse to relax. And much of that gloom is squarely owed to events surrounding Prime Minister Sharif. Even before May 30, when he went under the surgeon’s scalpel at a well-endowed UK hospital, Sharif’s political future was thrown in question following a chance discovery of the massive overseas wealth belonging to his three children.

Though most Pakistanis may have a hard time spotting Panama on the map, let alone the Panama canal or indeed being familiar with the fall from grace of the once powerful and CIA connected General Manuel Noriega, the phrase ‘Panama leaks’ has become practically common knowledge.

Meanwhile, the unending political deadlock among a group of government-opposition politicians over a set of ToR or Terms of Reference for further investigation into the matter, has fuelled the discord.

Knowledgeable analysts believe that Sharif’s likely response to the challenges at hand will be in sync with an established trend dating back to his 2013 victory; ad hocism has simply remained the norm. With the prime minister off the scene and institutions surrounded by growing dysfunctionality, the discomfort over the future is bound to deepen.

“Today in Pakistan, the system of governance is non-functional. The major manifestations of paralysis are there, and there is no coherence in government policy all across,” believes Hasan Askari Rizvi, the Lahore-based professor and long-term observer of trends related to security and politics. Dr Rizvi notes the pattern of far too few cabinet meetings held either in Islamabad or the Punjab — Sharif’s political stronghold — for key policy decisions as evidence of centralised authority around the far too few.

Meanwhile on the streets, the Ramazan-related inflation in food prices stands out among the most convincing bits of evidence of a disconnect between the rulers and the ruled. Still, for the accountant-turned-Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, inflation continues to head southwards in Sharif’s ruled Pakistan and there is ‘sub achha’ [all is well].

The minister was, however, left embarrassed when a group of MNAs from the treasury benches quietly walked out of the National Assembly as he rose to list the so-called economic successes. Najaf Abbas Sial, an MNA from Jhang, was quoted as telling Dawn that 60 or 70 of his colleagues in the ruling party chose to protest the “mistreatment at the hands of their own government”.

Sial, representing a rural constituency must be feeling the political heat on his home turf, as Pakistan faces the consequence of one of the worst contractions in agriculture during the past year. For any macro observer, there is a powerful irony in the way Pakistan has economically evolved during Sharif’s watch.

Increasingly, cash-strapped farmers bearing the brunt of a crash in commodity prices have stood in sharp contrast to the billions of rupees devoted to fanciful projects carried out in the name of development – metro buses, fancy fast speed trains and the lot.

And, meanwhile, the number of direct income taxpayers has slightly shrunk. So much for the government’s resolve to fix the black economy.

Sharif’s eventual return to Pakistan will hardly make a difference to the way the country is run, notwithstanding instant video coverage and press statements at the leader’s return home. Questions over the disconnect between Islamabad’s power corridors and the grass roots will refuse to go away.

And you can be certain that even if the business of government perks up when Ramazan ends, any relief for the public will be temporary. The bottom line is a tragic one; going by trends of the past year, Pakistan will likely remain unchanged under its present-day rulers.

Published in Dawn, June 26th, 2016