THE latest annual report from the Pentagon on China’s security and military developments contains a few observations that are worth pausing on. Previous annual reports have noted only that Pakistan is “China’s primary customer for conventional weapons”, in addition to listing the various joint exercises the militaries of the two countries have participated in during the year under review. To that extent, the relationship between the two neighbours, as described in the report, could be seen as cooperative. But the latest report has added a new element: “China most likely will seek to establish additional naval logistics hubs in countries with which it has a long-standing friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan, and a precedent for hosting foreign militaries.” With this possibility, the relationship goes far beyond cooperation towards a deeper strategic engagement, built on the history that Pakistan has written for itself as a launching pad for the regional aspirations of great powers. In its denunciation of the report’s contents, China has mentioned only the South China seas and said nothing about the intentions imputed to it. It is necessary for the government, and particularly the army which is in the driver’s seat of the relationship with China, to clarify whether or not Pakistan is indeed moving towards hosting Chinese naval forces, and how much of the CPEC relationship is actually military in nature.

Pakistan’s search for a big partner is undoubtedly driven by India’s massive arms build-up — the largest in the world — with the test of an anti-missile system coming as the latest provocative act in a dangerous game. It is not possible to view this arms build-up across the border without deep concern. Caught between the mutually reinforcing logic of regional control that is unfolding between China and India, Pakistan is left with no option but to seek whatever means its smaller economy allows it to beef up its own defences. Deepening the relationship with China beyond military cooperation and economic investment towards actually hosting Chinese forces and providing logistic support for their presence in our oceans is naturally a part of this search. But the gambit carries its own risks, especially given how the history of Great Power engagement in our region has worked out in the past. The Pentagon’s insinuation that Gwadar is really being built as a naval logistics hub needs to be responded to.

Published in Dawn, May 18th, 2016