A MONTH since the change at the top of the political leadership in Balochistan, there are disturbing signs that the security situation in the province may be worsening yet again.

Newly installed Chief Minister Sanaullah Zehri had pledged to continue the policies of his predecessor and suggested that political reconciliation with Baloch separatists would be a priority, but the spike in violence — admittedly by all sides — appears to be the only change discernible so far.

Since Mr Zehri took over, there have been several fatal attacks on policemen and FC personnel. Some of those attacks are likely the work of Baloch separatists, but the attack on a polio centre suggests that Islamist militants are once again flexing their muscles.

The response of the state has been predictable, especially against Baloch separatists. Encounters, killings and deaths have marked the new year so far and both political leaders and security officials have been using the tough language that usually accompanies a fresh crackdown.

Clearly, Mr Zehri is not entirely in control of or responsible for the actions of the state security apparatus. But his first month in office has made for a grim contrast with his diplomacy in London last year, when Mr Zehri tried to woo the Khan of Kalat back to Balochistan.

A new chief minister is not the only notable change in the ranks of those handling Balochistan policy. A new military commander in Quetta with his predecessor installed as national security adviser in Islamabad created expectations in some quarters that a different Balochistan policy may be in the offing — or that at least some tweaks to the existing hardline policy were being contemplated.

Unhappily, a fresh crackdown has materialised and several Baloch separatists have been killed in recent days. The low-level insurgency and counter-insurgency that has gripped the province for over a decade shows no signs of abating. Chief Minister Zehri cannot afford to be a bystander.

Old as the cycle of violence in Balochistan has become, there is always a risk of events spiralling out of control. An early catastrophe in the second half of Balochistan’s coalition government can be avoided if Mr Zehri becomes more assertive on two fronts.

One, the chief minister will have to convince the security establishment to end the spike in killings of separatists. Two, the chief minister will have to redouble his efforts to reach out to disaffected Baloch and their leaders, at home and abroad.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2016