Every year when the budget is presented, a number of generic themes are rolled out in its aftermath to help drive the conversation. Some decry the targets set as ‘too ambitious’, other call the budget ‘business-friendly’ or ‘pro-rich’. Many look for ‘relief measures’ in it while others focus on ‘incentives’.

The narratives collide in the public discourse and the result is confusion all around. This year promises to be no different. No sooner had the budget speech concluded in parliament than the narratives began.

The opposition charged that this was a pro-rich budget that had nothing in it for the poor.

Other commentary said that it was overly ambitious or overly cautious, that it was out of touch with the realities of life or that it leaned too far to please the rich.

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The details — as they appear once the voluminous amount of information that is needed to understand a federal budget is digested — show a very cautious approach in drawing up targets, except perhaps for the development budget.

Current expenditures have been increased very marginally. Development spending is up somewhat significantly — Rs158bn from the revised figures of the ongoing fiscal year — but considering it was cut last year, this is also a nominal increase.

The new taxation measures announced are somewhat aggressive, particularly those requiring banks and financial institutions to share account-holder information with the tax authorities when asked, and the net revenue impact of Rs253bn being touted by the finance ministry is considerable.

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To add to that, more than half of this impact comes from income taxes, which are direct and progressive.

So what’s the problem? On Monday the debate on the finance bill opens up in the National Assembly, and the first to speak will be Khursheed Shah from the opposition PPP. He has already made clear what his line of attack will be. He will decry this budget as pro-rich and anti-poor.

One can only hope that he comes armed with a sound understanding of the details, because his own government used to defend its pro-poor credentials largely on the back of the Benazir Income Support Programme and the hike in wheat procurement prices.

The former is still around and growing every year, and the latter had a debatable impact as a pro-poor measure. The budget is too important a document to be reduced to glib debating points and general rhetoric.

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Let us hope the debate in parliament will consider the detailed picture of the economy painted by the government in the Economic Survey and the priorities laid out in the budget, and that we will have a debate that goes well beyond simple rhetoric and fiery speeches.

The last thing the country needs at this point is more confusion as an unbalanced growth cycle is set into motion.

Published in Dawn, June 7th, 2015

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