There's something ominous about the location of Sunday night's horrific suicide attack in Wagah.

The tragedy may portend a geographic shift in South Asian militancy – one that lurches eastward from the Afghanistan/Pakistan border regions to the Pakistan-India frontier, and into India.

With foreign troops leaving Afghanistan, numerous militants fighting foreign forces in that country – such as Lashkar-e-Taiba – will be in search of a new target. Redirecting their attention to India is a logical next step.

Also read: Wagah blast: An attack that was waiting to happen

Additionally, this year has marked the reemergence of various anti-India militant leaders – figures that had been relatively quiet in recent years.

Take Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed, whose voice was heard in a recording broadcast at an anti-India rally earlier this year. His sudden reappearance points to the possibility that he and his like-minded extremists could be preparing for a new campaign.

Also read: The return of Masood Azhar

More recently, al Qaeda announced a new South Asia affiliate. It claims it wants to establish a presence throughout the broader region, including Bangladesh and Burma.

But let's face it: India is likely the biggest target.

The new affiliate's leader, Asim Umar, has long been an al Qaeda propagandist (he also had an affiliation with the Pakistani Taliban), and his diatribes often fixate on India. Umar has often invited Indian Muslims to mobilise for jihad.

"How can you remain in your slumber when the Muslims of the world are awakening?" he has demanded of them.

It's doubtful al Qaeda Central launched this new faction as a response to the Islamic State's outreach in the region (South Asia, with its various al Qaeda-aligned militants, is an unlikely spot for Islamic State to gain major ground).

Instead, al Qaeda – which reportedly has sought this new affiliate for several years, before Islamic State had become what it is today – simply wants to strengthen its presence in a part of the world where it believes it has lost influence in recent years. And with Asim Umar at the helm, this means that India will figure prominently in this plan.

To be sure, militancy will not be leaving Afghanistan anytime soon. The withdrawal of foreign troops will create security vacuums that strengthen jihadists there.

Additionally, if the pronouncements of their leaders and spokespersons are to be believed, various Pakistani militant groups – from Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to Pakistani Taliban factions – claim they will be marching into Afghanistan to join in the Afghan Taliban's fight.

And of course, to state the obvious, militancy will certainly not be leaving Pakistan anytime soon.

Also read: Questions about breach at Wagah abound

The country's security situation had been deceptively calm in recent months since the military launched its offensive in North Waziristan.

Still, so long as ties with all militant groups are not severed, militancy will not end. It's as simple as that. It's telling that, as of this writing, most, if not all, of the groups claiming responsibility for the Wagah attack have staged or attempted attacks in Pakistan during the relatively quiet last few months.

Additionally, arguably the sole target of the North Waziristan offensive, the Pakistani Taliban, is rapidly fracturing – thereby setting the stage for new and possibly more ferocious sources of anti-state terror.

The upshot?

Extremist violence will continue unabated on both sides of the Durand Line. Yet, it could soon enjoy a new renaissance on both sides of the Line of Control as well.

And unfortunately, it's the innocents who will suffer the most, such as those Pakistanis in Wagah on Sunday night.