ARAB participation in US-led air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria will be symbolically important in diluting the impression of another American war in the Middle East and showcasing the role being played by the Sunni world in combating a vicious perversion of Muslim values and an alarming threat to the status quo.
Military capability is not a problem: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar together have hundreds of fighter aircraft, though the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has next to no experience of coordination. Politically, however, fighting with the US would require greater determination than they have yet shown to tackle the jihadis who have sent shockwaves across the region.
Offers of help — most likely from the Emiratis and Saudis — attest to the gravity of the situation. Washington may be cautious given that the Iraqi military has extensive experience of working with the US but none with the Gulf states.
The UAE is the most assertive country in the GCC and recently sent jets to Egypt to bomb Islamist targets in Libya. But the more reluctant royals in Riyadh may prefer to be told they can make a more useful contribution in counter-extremism messaging, bankrolling Iraqi tribes or training Syrian rebels.
Both will be worried about whether they can trust Barack Obama to follow through after high tension over his policy on Iran and his inconsistent approach to the Syrian war, culminating with his failure to act when his own “red line” was crossed last year with Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons.
Both also fear that crushing the Islamic State will bolster Iran and its allies or proxies in Baghdad and Damascus and trigger a Sunni backlash. They will heed the influential Qatar-based Egyptian preacher Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who is often seen as a mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood and who criticised Washington’s role in the campaign against Isis as purely “self-interested”.
The US has made clear that Iran’s participation in the coalition would not be appropriate because of its staunch support for Assad. But Iran is helping the Iraqi government fight the Islamic State, using Shia militias it has long backed.
Signs of difficulties are already emerging. Turkey’s refusal to allow its bases to be used for air strikes is one. And in Egypt over the weekend, the president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, made clear he wanted to see an effort against other extremists, including Ansar Bet al-Maqdis, a jihadi-type group active in the Sinai peninsula. Sisi’s friends and backers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia also back action against hardline Islamist fighters in Libya — some of them backed by their Gulf rival Qatar.
Gulf officials have been talking up a new era of cooperation. “But there are still many unknowns,” said Theodore Karasik of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai.
“Specifically, one misstep by the United States in leading the coalition against the Islamic State will quickly erase the goodwill witnessed over the past week.”
Other commentators highlight the difficulties of forging an effective alliance. “The Arab and Turkish allies being herded into the coalition do not inspire a great deal of enthusiasm,” wrote Rami Khouri in the Beirut Daily Star.
And defeating Isis would not end the troubles of the Arab world, noted Stratfor, a strategic consultancy. “It is unlikely the regional players will simply move forward and seamlessly establish a new regional order to contain the sectarian conflict.”
By arrangement with the Guardian
Published in Dawn, September 16th , 2014
