WITH Narendra Modi’s rise as a hugely mandated leader, India’s political pendulum, not for the first time, has swung firmly towards the western state of Gujarat. Before him, Gandhi, Sardar Patel and Jinnah were Gujarati leaders who played a towering role in the freedom movement. Morarji Desai was the first elected prime minister from the state in 1977. Strangely enough, Gen Zia liked him and gave him Pakistan’s highest civilian award.

If Gujarati is the lingua franca of India’s bourses today, the reasons are not far to seek. Gujarat’s mercantile capitalists came from diverse religious backgrounds though this may have also impacted on the state’s evolution as a communal cauldron. Hindu, Muslim and Parsi traders exploited the tribespeople and occasionally faced their wrath. The militant Devi movement against alcohol vendors was an example of this conflict. The mercantile classes were traditional allies of the Indian state from the pre-Mughal days through colonialism till today.

While the state’s forces invariably aligned themselves with the traders, the rulers almost always found themselves on the wrong side of the peasantry’s interests. When Maratha warrior chief Shivaji raided the merchants of Surat, including Hindu and Muslim traders alike, Mughal emperor Aurangzeb sent his army to their rescue. The Mughal state’s contradiction with the Sikhs in Punjab, who too were of the peasant stock, can be explained to an extent in the trader-peasant tussle.

Nehru, the intellectual Brahmin that he was, displayed a marked aversion of the mercantile classes though Gandhi saw them — and he was one of them — as the trustees of free India. It may not be without irony that Modi’s first day in office on Tuesday coincides with Nehru’s 50th death anniversary.

Much focus has been on the businessmen supporting Modi.

It cannot be said with certainty where the trigger for Gujarat’s communal forays was precisely located. However, the fact that the British enlisted the services of the Pathans from the northwest in a failed effort to crush the Gujarat farmers’ uprising led by Patel has lingered in public memory. The tug of war over the Muslim-ruled state of Junagarh between India and Pakistan also seems to have left bitter memories.

An insightful essay by a Gujarati author in the latest Outlook suggests the state’s evolution as an abstemious entity that subscribes to a simple lifestyle that comes from its Baniya ethos rather than from its feudal past. “An illustration is whilst Modi has just three people working for him at his residence in Gandhinagar, [the prime minister’s house at] Race Course Road has 50, which again suggests the idea of efficiency in Gujarat.”

Terrorism, according to the Outlook piece, “is another issue which the Gujarati feels strongly about. So much so that even during Navaratri (a non-political platform), people dance to specially written couplets mocking terrorism and Pakistan.”

There are far too many Gujaratis, of course, who defy the stereotype that Modi identifies with. Dancer and political activists Mallika Sarabhai leads the field. Yet, the focus during much of the election has been on Modi’s business supporters, and they were tycoons from Gujarat. They own newspapers and TV channels that played a major role in advancing his campaign and in building his image as the man the country needs.

As far as Pakistan’s interest in Modi goes, his backers are the same businessmen who own an oil refinery and a major thermal power facility coming up in Gujarat. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit at Modi’s inaugural may not be as sudden as it seems.

As far as the world of sport is concerned, notice how one Gujarati after another wants to be the head of the country’s cricket administration. Of course, notice also that a large part of the betting network that has threatened the sport can be located in Gujarat, or among Gujarati business communities.

Historian David Hardiman in his study of the usurers of 18th- and 19th-century western India, has observed how speculative trade could easily turn into outright gambling. Indira Gandhi was aware of this tendency when she decreed that meteorological data pertaining to monsoon predictions be kept secret in order to pre-empt predatory moves against unsuspecting farmers.

“In Marwar, it was common for Baniyas to take bets on the rainfall. Plates and vessels were left on the roof, and adjudicators determined the extent to which it had rained by counting the number of drops on a plate or weighing the water in the vessel. Bets could be placed on the number of drops or the weight of the water. This form of betting was so common in Bikaner state in the 19th century that there was a tax on it.”

Mercantile classes across the world are leading purveyors of superstition. It is not surprising that an inordinately large number of TV channels in India cater to self-styled boon givers who may get your son or daughter married or find you promotion in a government job. A woman devotee told a clean-shaven Nirmal Baba with tears gushing that with his blessings she was able to buy a plane ticket to come for his darshan.

Hardiman quotes a story narrated by the 17th century-chronicler Muhmot Nainsi. In this story the Baniyas in Kutch suffered because of four successive years of good rain and bumper crops. They, therefore, approached a person skilled in powers of black magic who agreed to lock up the rain and cause a famine in the land.

Modi has vowed to usher happy days for India. Place your bets.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

Published in Dawn, May 27th, 2014