Ending the stalemate

AN unfortunate aspect of the post-earthquake scenario is the discord between the government and the opposition on the modalities of aid utilization. At a time when the task of reconstruction has not even begun and relief operations are still under way, the people expect mature behaviour from both sides. Instead, what the nation is witnessing is an unforgivable failure to present a united front in the face of a humanitarian disaster of such proportions. This has disappointed the people who feel their spontaneous response to the Oct 8 calamity has not been matched by the country’s political leadership. The opposition did not immediately agree to be part of the parliamentary committee set up to supervise relief and rehabilitation operations. It finally attended its meeting, but differences over the terms of reference have paralyzed the committee. The opposition also boycotted the international donors’ conference held in Islamabad on Nov 19. Now, mercifully, things seem to be moving in the right direction going by what the opposition decided at its Thursday’s meeting in Islamabad. Talking to reporters, Senator Raza Rabbani said opposition parties had agreed on the “broad principles” of the terms of reference for the parliamentary committee. The agreement on the terms is within the opposition itself, and much will depend on how the government responds to it.

At present, ignoring the good work being done by Pakistani and foreign volunteers and agencies, the relief operations are being carried out entirely by the army. For this it enjoys certain advantages because of discipline and chain of command and the civil engineers it has within its ranks. But the long-term rehabilitation is something that the army cannot do alone. The opposition demands civilian control over the relief and rehabilitation work. One wishes the opposition had been a little more specific about it. Obviously, the army will have to rely on the civilian bureaucracy and the different utility corporations for the massive task of planning and implementing the devastated areas’ reconstruction. But that is not what the opposition wants, and rightly. At issue is the supremacy of the parliament in all national affairs.

The man overall in charge of relief and reconstruction is a general, who obviously is answerable to the military high command alone. This in effect means the army chief, who also happens to be the president. This leaves the parliament out and strengthens the opposition’s charge that the government wants to go it alone. To make the civilian control over reconstruction meaningful, the Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation Authority should be made answerable to the parliamentary committee. Let us hope that the two sides will agree on the terms of reference, but that is not the main issue, for what matters is the welfare of the 3.5 million people affected by the earthquake. It would be a pity if the proceedings of the parliamentary committee were to fall victim to political bickering and procedural wrangling. To avoid a stalemate they must show flexibility and mutual understanding. The reconstruction of the devastated areas is a national task, and nothing should be allowed to distract from the primacy of that task. Continued squabbles will also send wrong signals to the donors, who could have second thoughts about actually paying the money they have pledged to donate.

Before it gets out of hand

MUCH to the relief of countries on the periphery of Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors decided on Thursday not to refer Iran’s case to the UN Security Council at the moment. If this had been done the world would have had another crisis of great magnitude. Instead, the board has called on Tehran to resume its dialogue with the EU-3 which is seeking to broaden the base of the talks by taking up a Russian proposal floated recently. This has two advantages. First, the Russian proposal has a good chance of being accepted by Iran — at least it has not been rejected so far. Second, it would involve the Russians in the negotiations and thus act as a counterweight to the American hardline stance on the nuclear issue that provokes Tehran.

The plan which is now under consideration would allow Iran to convert uranium ore into gas and then pass it on to Russia to be enriched for use as fuel in its reactors. Given its good ties with Moscow, Tehran should feel confident about an uninterrupted supply of enriched uranium, which is its major concern. The western powers, which fear that Iran is trying to master sensitive enrichment technology, should feel assured that the Russian proposal would introduce a significant gap in the nuclear fuel cycle, thus preempting the manufacture of weapons. Since Iran has repeatedly affirmed that it has no plans to manufacture nuclear weapons, it should give positive consideration to this proposal. Its relations with Russia have been good and there is no reason why it should not have confidence in Moscow for its nuclear fuel cycle. This would require Iran to mothball its enrichment plant in Nathanz. It is also important that Iran does not try to test the EU-3’s patience by venturing to enrich uranium during the course of the talks that are to resume next month. These are significant issues which should be addressed now and resolved. Brushing them aside would be unwise. Ignoring the Iran question at this stage, when much can be done to resolve it peacefully, would amount to waiting for the crisis to go out of hand.

Inzamam’s record

INZAMAMUL Haq just seems to be getting better and better with the passage of time. Among the most consistent and solid batsmen of his generation, the Pakistan cricket captain has now bettered the record for most centuries in tests by a Pakistani, surpassing Javed Miandad’s 23 when he scored an unbeaten century in the second innings of the drawn Faisalabad test. With his 24 centuries, Inzamam now stands along side batting legends Vivian Richards, Greg Chappell and current Australian batsman Matthew Hayden. In fact, given that in the last couple of years, after taking on the responsibility of national captain, his batting average has steadily climbed — to almost 52 now after his Faisalabad innings — it is quite possible that Inzamam may surpass Miandad’s national record for most runs in test matches.

Inzamam’s strength seems to come from a combination of a calm and often seemingly self-absorbed exterior under which lies immense perseverance and toughness. His other advantage, especially over other subcontinental batting greats, is that he is perhaps one of the finest players of fast bowling. In addition to this, he is a proven match-winner and always seems to deliver when the team and the country expects it the most. The best example of this was perhaps the Faisalabad test where his masterful and resilient batting in the second innings not only prevented England from bowling out Pakistan cheaply but actually set the home team up for what could have been a series-clinching win. He is also exceptional in that the pressure of captaincy has in fact only improved his batting, something that even a batsman like Sachin Tendulkar was not able to do when made the Indian skipper some years ago. He is generally considered to be a cricketer of few words and even less emotion, but he leads from the front like a champion and, like a thorough professional, let’s his bat do the talking.

Challenge and response: Disaster management plan — II

IN identifying and assessing hazards, an important step is to carry out a vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability is the ability of a system (or element) to withstand, avoid, neutralize or absorb the impacts of hazardous natural events.

A vulnerability analysis takes into account not just the degree of potential loss or harm to human beings, but also to material and natural assets, animals, cattle, industry and business. This is a complex exercise and it requires very scientific inputs.

There can be no effective disaster management without availability of data and maps showing demographic distribution, villages, houses, buildings, hospitals, schools, playgrounds, forests, parks, shelters, power houses, fuel and gas installations, community centres, water resources, fire stations, ammunition dumps, cultural resources, access roads, evacuation routes and other important elements of infrastructure in each town and community. Perhaps the greatest handicap in launching a rescue and relief effort during the recent earthquake was the absence of this information.

Vulnerability, too, can be rated either on a numerical scale or on a descriptive one.

Risk analysis is a combination of the two analytical stages, hazard analysis and vulnerability analysis, together with analysis of self-protection capabilities. It involves estimating damage, loss and consequences arising out of one or more disaster scenarios. It attempts to estimate the probability and magnitude of damage caused by extreme natural events. Its results are conventionally presented in risk maps.

Mitigation is a “before disaster” activity and the next step after hazards have been identified and risks assessed. Mitigation is intended to reduce or eliminate the long-term impacts and risks associated with disasters. Measures are generally taken well in advance of a potential disaster situation. Mitigation can involve mapping of hazards, reinforcing or upgrading infrastructure, making embankments, flood walls, dams and floodways, forecasting disaster, implementing building safety codes, etc.

Effective mitigation efforts are possible only if they are well planned and well coordinated with all members of the disaster management system. This means that each disaster management organization should involve all concerned departments for planning, implementing and monitoring mitigation activities.

Planning and preparedness is dependent on the accuracy and adequacy of data, information, hazard maps, vulnerability analysis and risk assessment. Based on this information, plans are made to respond to each type of disaster in each city, town and community. Plans must be kept current and should incorporate the latest information on hazards, vulnerability, and resources. They should clearly describe the task sequence, responsibility, resources, control structure, role of each organization, time frame, communication requirements and performance criteria for managing each disaster management activity. Some examples of issues that would require planning and preparation are given below.

— Plan and train for obtaining rapid need and damage assessment reports.

— Maintain properly staffed and equipped fire stations and fire fighting equipment. Monitor response time from initial call to arrival and pursue a response time goal of five minutes from the nearest station to all parts of the city.

— Plan and hold emergency stocks for food, medicine, power generators, respirators, chemical and radiation detection equipment, mobile search and rescue equipment, emergency protective clothing, fire fighting equipment, ambulances, relief supplies and equipment for relief and recovery stages. Plans for alternative sources of water, evacuation routes, and communication systems.

— Plans for debris removal, provision of shelter, interim housing, restoration of services, interim business resumption, and plans for building new homes (temporary as well as permanent).

— Implementation of codes relating to land zoning, development of property, construction of buildings and cutting of forests. - Establish requirements for safety, fire control, fire alarm, emergency exits, driveway clearances, gas shut-off valves and evacuation from buildings.

— Strengthen, improve and clean storm drain system to reduce local flooding caused by inadequate storm drainage.

— Plan and conduct staff, citizens and volunteers training addressing emergency readiness, response and recovery operations, management of different types of disasters, damage assessment, public health, first aid and trauma management.

— Make extensive use of websites, newspapers, brochures, radio, libraries and schools for providing emergency preparedness and planning information.

As it is difficult to predict all the problems that may arise, plans need to be periodically put to test. Exercises and drills must be conducted to practise all or critical portions of the plan. A thorough and immediate review after each exercise/drill will point out areas that require improvement.

The first requirement after a disaster takes place is to carry out a rapid need assessment and a rapid damage assessment.

This system needs to be already in place in each town and city. It must be activated, carry out assessment and reports on the magnitude of the event, the level of response and the resources required to conduct life-saving and life-sustaining operations. This is done by pre-designated trained teams equipped with “assessment kits” containing mobile phones, computers, batteries, GPS units and cameras. The teams immediately move out to the affected areas and begin to collect, record and communicate detailed information regarding the disaster.

Each level of disaster management organization must have a designated (full-time) staffed emergency operations centre. The centres maintain complete and updated information about all key persons and organizations. Designated persons of the disaster management organization along with elected representatives and concerned officials of various departments direct and control the emergency operations. Based on need and damage assessment, the required actions such as sounding the alert, declaration of emergency, evacuation, call for help from other organizations or levels, rescue and relief operations, decisions relating to shutdown or restoration of utilities, opening of evacuation/relief routes, medical support etc, are initiated.

This is a vital component of a disaster management system and requires high skills, accurate information and well-rehearsed coordination among a large number of organizations and tiers.

It is essential that only one easy-to-remember emergency phone number (such as 999) be used and advertised throughout the country so that every citizen can easily report an emergency. On the receipt of a report, emergency situations are usually first managed by the emergency services (fire departments, police and municipalities) at the local level. They are among the first to be on the scene of disaster.

All reports are sent to the emergency operations centre of the concerned locality. If any additional assistance is required, the centre makes a request to the next higher level disaster management organization. If the emergency escalates beyond their capabilities, the provinces seek assistance from the federal government.

While the disaster-relief efforts require rapid response, the help must be of the right type and matched with the specific needs of the local people. The October 8 earthquake taught us how the introduction of non-essential items can actually impede relief efforts by clogging distribution channels.

The disaster response in situations involving major damage to buildings and structure would need personnel with specific skills who have mastered basic rescue techniques and can handle rescue equipment including sensors and trained dogs and be capable of tunnelling, cutting, shoring, hoisting with mechanical equipment, searching in confined areas and providing emergency treatment. Additionally, there could be a need for heavy equipment including, cranes, bulldozers, and road clearance equipment. A good disaster response plan would include the number, source and requisition method for such type of equipment in each location.

The recovery phase is frequently under-emphasized in disaster plans, but returning lives and livelihoods to normalcy becomes a primary concern of disaster-affected communities and nations. Traditionally, the recovery phase means returning to a situation that existed prior to the disaster event. Recent definitions of recovery take this process further, with a view to “improving” the pre-disaster living conditions of the stricken community.

Often, in the case of large-scale disasters, there is tremendous time pressure to return to ‘business-as-usual’. Unfortunately, more often than not, the choice made is to rebuild quickly, albeit to a lower standard, in order to cater to large numbers of people for the same cost. We ought to learn a lesson from the fact that almost all government buildings, schools and hospitals were destroyed during the recent earthquake, leaving us with no choice but to build them once again. Clearly, we are rich enough to build them twice over, but not rich enough to build them right. It is, therefore, important to emphasize the need for resilient recovery processes so that the new buildings and infrastructure are safer for use in a future disaster.

The national disaster management plans must, therefore, provide enough information for guiding that post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation policy that is responsive to community needs and local conditions. The designs for temporary/permanent housing suitable to each location must be already available and not prepared at the time of the disaster. The recovery process must extend across all affected sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, economy and social development. It is best to involve all relevant stakeholders in the process.

Pakistan would have taken a huge step forward if it were to develop a national disaster management system and have it in place in the next 12 months. Beginning 2006, let October 8 each year be the day we carry out a nationwide drill to test the effectiveness of our disaster management system.