Better market access

PAKISTAN has sought greater market access from the European Union, the United States and other major Western countries for its exports to offset the negative impact of the earthquake on its economy and growth momentum. These are unusual times for Pakistan, And the request is being made keeping in mind the Herculean task ahead for the country in terms of the enormous economic challenges of relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction that the October 8 tragedy has brought on it. At the moment Pakistan is struggling to maintain its growth rate, which is estimated to be affected by the earthquake to the tune of over one per cent of the GDP. This is going to bring down the growth rate to a little over six per cent against the current year’s target of seven per cent. At the same time, it has to accelerate its foreign exchange earning ability to meet the additional burden on its budget imposed by the recovery demands. This gap of one per cent in the growth rate and the adverse impact on the budget could be overcome to an extent if the rich importing countries were to allow some concessional space in their markets for Pakistan’s exports.

The tsunami-affected Sri Lanka was given special concessions by the EU under the new generalized system of preferences. Pakistan has requested similar concessions for its exports to the EU. One hopes that the EU policy-makers will consider this request in the same spirit in which it had allowed export concessions to Sri Lanka. Similarly, one would expect the US to respond positively to Pakistan’s expectation of increased access of its exports to the American market. In this connection, one would like the US private sector to follow the example of one of its major importer of textile made-ups, which has already announced that it would increase the worth of its orders to Pakistan from the present $50 million to $100 million. Of course, both the US and EU have been very generous in their assistance to Pakistan in this hour of its need. But if Pakistan is forced to accept all the soft loans that were pledged at the November 19 donors’ conference in view of its massive rehabilitation and reconstruction needs, the country is estimated to add another three to four billion dollars to its debt burden which in turn would certainly add to its budgetary deficits in due course of time.

Additional exports to the rich countries would do two things: they would accelerate economic activity to a level that would help the country achieve its growth target of seven per cent for the year; at the same time, it would earn for the country enough foreign exchange to meet the extra burden on the budget imposed by the quake tragedy. Here one would like to point out that we are still a one-export-item country. There is only so much textile made-ups and garments a country, even a rich one can import. Therefore, even if the rich countries agree to open up their markets to the maximum for Pakistan, we would still not be able to make the best of the bargain. So, it has become necessary for us to expand the list of export items and also diversify their destinations.

In the name of security

THE decision by the Council of Europe to open an inquiry into reports suggesting that several European countries provided the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) the use of their airports or prisons to transit or house suspected terrorists held by the US government is a welcome decision. Ever since a US paper reported that, to circumvent US laws that prevent the use of torture, the CIA was holding many suspected terrorists in a network of overseas prisons that it managed, the Bush administration has been facing a barrage of criticism — much of it justified. Several countries are said to be providing this facility to the US government in its war against terror. Pressed for comments, President George W. Bush recently said that the US does not torture its prisoners. While such remarks may hoodwink domestic opinion in the US or a section of its media which makes it a practice not to question much of what the Bush White House says or does, the rest of the world cannot be so easily deceived.

Mr Bush’s doublespeak on this is in fact easily exposed by his administration’s repeated plea to the US Senate to pass legislation allowing the CIA to use torture in certain cases. Besides, the current attorney-general is on record having authored a memo, while he was White House counsel, where he argued that the US president be given the discretion to authorize torture as part of investigation if required in the interest of national security. Mr Bush’s denial does not take away from the fact that the conduct of his administration in Iraq and Afghanistan and in the war against terror in general is such that many would believe terrorism suspects are being tortured. After all, one just has to look at Guantanamo Bay, Iraq’s Abu Ghraib or Afghanistan’s Bagram to see that prisoners in US custody are routinely tortured and that such treatment must be part of a deliberate policy. Torture is wrong anywhere and can never be condoned, especially on grounds as specious and vague as ‘national security’. The US should in fact also launch an independent probe into these allegations and if the reports are correct then such a policy should be immediately discontinued.

Caring for animals

SEVEN weeks after the earthquake, little thought has been given to a significant number of animals that too have been affected. Because so many quake victims depend on their animals for their livelihood and day-to-day sustenance, any threat to the animals is also a threat to people. Were it not for the gallant efforts of organizations like the World Society of Protection of Animals or The Brooke’s, which dispatched teams of veterinarians to treat and care for injured animals, a larger number would have died. Apart from focussing on protecting animals for humanitarian reasons, efforts need to be made to care for animals, particularly livestock. At the moment, many farmers have no choice but to sell their healthy cattle — at far less than the usual amounts — because they cannot care for them. This is a cause for concern for UN World Food Programme officials who are worried about farmers’ future income and their health, as families are losing their only source of fresh protein. Already milk production has drastically fallen, and this has more to do with the fact that those animals that survived the earthquake have not been abandoned.

Statistics suggest that almost a quarter of a million animals died in the earthquake; 75 per cent of affected families had livestock, of which 20 per cent lost all their animals. UN officials estimate that half a million large animals exist — but they desperately need help. Authorities need to realize that by caring for the animals they are actually helping the farmers in the stricken areas. One animal hospital that is treating close to a thousand animals a day has seen how farmers stopped abandoning or selling their animals because they knew they could now get help. The government would do well to work with veterinary groups to save animals, who in turn, will contribute to their owners’ betterment.

An integrated disaster management plan

IF Karachi were to be hit by an earthquake similar to the one experienced on October 8 in Kashmir and parts of the NWFP, it could result in the death of three to five million people and the city being pushed back on the time-line by some 100 odd years. However undesirable, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

We could, however, reduce the loss, damage and suffering by doing some pro-active planning, preparation and taking precautions. The October 8 earthquake extracted a heavy price for our negligence, ignorance and apathy. Are we going to be better equipped to cope with a future disaster? Can Pakistan create an effective disaster management system before we are caught unprepared yet another time? This article proposes a step-by-step approach to building a comprehensive disaster management system in Pakistan.

Such a system involves continuous and integrated multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary processes of planning and implementation of steps aimed at prevention, hazard assessment, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery in relation to natural and manmade disasters. It aims to protect public safety, promote disaster-resilient communities and create public confidence in the ability of the system to manage an emergency or a disaster. There are seven core elements that constitute a disaster management system — a caring state and civil society, a disaster management organization, hazard and vulnerability assessment, mitigation and prevention, planning and preparedness, response, rescue, relief and recovery, rehabilitation and restoration.

Disaster management is linked with how a state perceives its relations with its ordinary citizens. Does it care for them? Does it protect their life, liberty and property in normal times? Does it treat them equally and fairly? Does it work towards improving their quality of life?

A state that does not care for its ordinary citizens in normal times would not be expected to behave differently during crises. With half of the population completely illiterate, 40 per cent living below the poverty line and another 40 per cent not far above it, both state and civil society have very little to show in terms of their care or concern for the ordinary citizens. On the other hand, a very small minority of the rich and powerful, obsessed with its own well-being and ostentatious lifestyle draws all the attention and blessings of the state.

It is absolutely vital that the state should shift its focus from the much privileged and affluent minority to its large burgeoning have-nots. This is the foremost requirement for building a sincere and effective disaster management system in Pakistan.

Did anyone hear of any civilian disaster or relief management organization during or after the October 8 earthquake? Faced with the greatest natural catastrophe in the nation’s history, Pakistan’s disaster management organizations could collectively accomplish less than the two local high school kids who voluntarily directed traffic at a narrow road in Muzaffarabad. This is a sad reflection on the collective incompetence of our institutions. A military general appointed the relief commissioner on the third day after the quake had to struggle hard to discover that the only organization he could order around was the army. Clearly, the disaster management organizations only existed on paper.

The Federal Flood Commission (FFC), the Emergency Relief Cell (ERC), the Pakistan Meteorological Department and the Civil Defence which are the main agencies for disaster and relief management in Pakistan were nowhere to be seen. Modern day disaster management can simply not be accomplished with organizations that do not coordinate their activities and whose personnel are under-trained and poorly equipped. Knee-jerk, reactive responses like the appointment of an emergency relief commissioner and the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority should not be thought of as an alternative to a long-term permanent institutional arrangement.

What is urgently needed is a permanent national disaster management authority that could establish, implement, maintain and improve a disaster management system in Pakistan. This should essentially be a civilian institution, supported by similar organizations at the province, city, town and community levels. It should be headed by an administrator (preferably a civilian) of outstanding management skills. Pakistan would do itself a big favour, if it appoint its living saint, Maulana Abdul Sattar Edhi, to head such an organization.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) must be responsible for developing a national policy, plans, response systems and standards. It should work closely with provincial disaster management organizations and provide the necessary support, funds, tools and training. Additional resources should be provided if the handling of an emergency situation is beyond the capabilities of the provincial response. Full-time national and provincial disaster management operations centres need to be established, equipped with advanced communications for monitoring and coordinating the response to an emergency.

The NDMA should support provincial disaster management organizations, coordinate all resources and responses, and protect the safety of critical national infrastructure such as electrical, gas and oil installations, telecommunication systems, healthcare systems, food safety and stocks, water and transportation systems , dams, ports and airports.

Simultaneously we need to establish provincial, city, town and community disaster management organizations. Each level of organization must be required to plan for, and respond to, emergency situations within their jurisdictions and capabilities. Where required, their capabilities are augmented by the next higher level disaster management organization.

The community plays an important role in disaster management. It knows best about local conditions, people, geography and resources, and is also usually the first to know and the first to reach the place of disaster. Community emergency relief teams (CERT) must be organized at the level of mohalla, village or locality and a volunteer community warden scheme should be launched.

With some organization, training, recognition and compensation, they could play a very effective supporting role in times of disasters and emergencies. Each level of disaster management organizations ensures that it integrates all disaster management plans that fall in its jurisdiction.

The task of implementing a national disaster management programme cannot be undertaken by a few detached people pushing files in an Islamabad secretariat. The NDMA and its associated organizations would need to adopt a highly pragmatic and efficient (non-bureaucratic) management style to accomplish a task that literally needs to be evolved from scratch.

The trick lies in creating a small core group at each level (national, provincial, city and town) of highly-skilled, knowledge-based and well-trained professionals. This core group acts as a nucleus and in turn involves, engages and trains a large number of other organizations to create an integrated disaster management system. The quality and effectiveness of the core disaster management organizations lie in how well they have been able to blend other support components into a unified rapid response network.

Other organizations that are critical components of a disaster planning and response network include the fire, police, health, meteorological, agricultural, irrigation, forest, transport and food departments, ambulance services, telephone and utility companies, hospitals, the armed forces, the coast guards and Rangers, Suparco, the nuclear regulatory body, airport, railways, and seaport authorities, environmental, building control and water management authorities, besides municipal corporations, public and industry representatives, NGOs and volunteer organizations.

The current laws in Pakistan (the National Calamities Act 1958, Emergency Services Ordinance 2002 and Local Government Ordinance 2001) are inadequate and outdated and do not cover the scope of an integrated national disaster management system. They must, therefore, be replaced with a new parliamentary act, at the national and provincial levels, that provides for the establishment of a national disaster management authority, its affiliated provincial, city, town and community branches.

Every city, town and community, may have a different set of hazards depending upon location, population, buildings, topography, climate and a host of other factors. The first step for a hazard management organization is, therefore, to carry out a hazard identification and vulnerability assessment exercise, in order to determine the specific risks in each location.

The first stage in hazard analysis is to identify the types of hazards that may exist in the area under study. These could be events occurring suddenly or gradually, of an atmospheric, seismic, geological, volcanic, biological and hydrological nature. It is best to make a list of possible hazards specific to each town, city or community that may result in creating a disaster.

The next step in hazard analysis is to describe and assess the probability of occurrence of the potentially hazardous event at a specific place, at a specific time, and with a specific intensity and duration, for a vulnerable population and their vulnerable basis for life. It describes and evaluates the degree to which the population, animals, structures and goods would be at risk.

However, before such a detailed study is carried out, it is necessary to establish how far population groups and their bases for life are potentially affected by the event, i.e. how susceptible they are to the event and how vulnerable they are to its resultant hazards. The probability of occurrence of a hazard can be rated either on a numerical scale (say, one to 10) or on a more descriptive one, ranging from low to medium to high.