A bold proposal

PRESIDENT Pervez Musharraf has just offered to open the Line of Control in Kashmir to let people from across the LoC help their stricken brethren in Azad Kashmir. India has welcomed the offer. The modalities will have to be properly worked out because of the sensitivities involved on both sides in the disputed region. This may lead to establishing more crossing points besides the existing Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road when Gen Musharraf’s proposal, made at a media briefing in Muzaffarabad on Tuesday, is formally discussed between the two sides. The offer is obviously motivated by the colossal suffering caused in that area by the October 8 earthquake. There are divided families there that have been grievously affected by the tragedy and would want to help one another.

This is thus primarily a humanitarian gesture, but in view of the weight of history that overlies Kashmir, the political symbolism should not be overlooked. Ever since the current peace process was initiated and India agreed to move away from its rigid position that Kashmir was not a matter open to negotiation, there has been much talk of “soft borders”. The leadership of Indian Kashmir has also been advocating steps in this direction ever since it was recognized that the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference had a central role to play in moving towards a solution to the Kashmir issue. Out of the misfortune that has befallen us, therefore, we might be able to inch towards another confidence-building measure, and Gen Musharraf’s suggestion is both bold and timely.

In fact, the present government has throughout taken the initiative in pointing out several ways in which the hardened Kashmir mould can be broken. This has required both courage and a keen awareness of the changing international and regional environment. The government has had to contend with numerous attacks from the right wing, which has accused it of a “sell-out” without offering any ideas of their own. It has also been confronted with varying degrees of obduracy from the Indian side and shifting responses to many initiatives. We have not been without our own official nitpickers and leaders ready to shoot from the hip. But on the whole there has recently been a consistency in Pakistan’s desire to come to grips with the basic issue of Kashmir that is not matched by a similar readiness from the other side to solve a problem that has held the people of South Asia in thrall for five decades and more. It should be hoped that the LoC opening would be seriously pursued. Islamabad, after some initial hesitancy, has also warmly acknowledged the aid received from India, and some new bridges of cooperation and understanding might have been built. The issue of Indian helicopters, however, has been clumsily handled. It should have been clear from the outset that India would not agree to let us have its helicopters without its own pilots, and since that was our position, the offer should have been quietly and politely declined without attaching any strings. In these days of imaging satellites, most countries are like open books, and the Indian pilots could not have seen more than they are probably already aware of. But such hiccups will no doubt continue to occur because we are dealing with deeply ingrained mindsets on both sides; the important thing is not to let these lead to any convulsive fits and distract us from the search for durable peace.

More land grab by Israel

IT is now becoming increasingly clear that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has no interest in the peace process. Last week, he broke off all contact with the Palestinian Authority following violence in the West Bank. However, far more perverse are his policies that seem designed to kill the very idea of a Palestinian state. To be specific, work on the “separation barrier” and the expansion of Jewish settlements continues fast. The separation barrier — called the Middle East’s Berlin Wall by Yasser Arafat — was declared illegal by the International Court of Justice last year, but in defiance of the ruling, the hard-line Likud government has continued with its construction. When completed, the 420-mile, 26-foot high wall will effectively cut off the Arab quarters of Al Quds with the West Bank and deny Palestinians in the occupied territory access to Islamic holy sites. As for the settlements, 4,000 homes are under construction in the Ariel and Male Adumin settlements close to Al Quds. The completion of work in these two settlements and the separation barrier will mean that the Arab population of Al Quds will be surrounded by these settlements. In the meantime, 14,000 new Jewish settlers have arrived in the West Bank, compared with the 8,500 pulled out of Gaza. As for the territory usurped, in July alone Israel grabbed 23 square miles of Arab land while vacating 19 sq. mi. in Gaza.

The main purpose behind the uninterrupted settlements activity and the construction of the separation barrier is to alter the West Bank’s demographic and administrative character — Menachem Begin used to call this process “creating facts”. The most regrettable part of the phenomenon is America’s approval of these “ground realities”. In fact, President George Bush has assured Mr Sharon that the US does not expect Israel to return to the 1967 border because of the facts on the ground. Once America concedes this, the bottom is knocked out from under the two-state solution to which Washington is committed. How can there be a Palestinian state if Israel is not to return to the 1967 border and give up its occupation of the West Bank? This is the basic contradiction between America’s two-state solution and its support to “realities on the ground” created by Israel.

Health problems for children

RELIEF bodies in the quake-hit zone of Azad Kashmir and the NWFP are voicing concern over the deteriorating health situation in the area and its impact on children, who have been the worst affected by the tragedy. Poor sanitation and exposure to the cold and the absence of proper food and clean drinking water have rendered them vulnerable to a host of diseases, including gastroenteritis, pneumonia and measles. There are also fears that measles could well assume the proportions of an epidemic because the routine immunization coverage of children in the affected areas is 60 per cent, well under the recommended figure of 90 per cent needed to stave off major outbreaks of disease. Since half of the quake victims are children, there is an urgent need to speed up efforts to provide temporary shelters, administer vaccinations and increase supplies of water purification tablets to the affected families.

This would require a more coordinated effort than the one being witnessed at the moment, with relief agencies and volunteers setting apart at least a part of their resources for the specific purpose of protecting children against the threat of disease and malnutrition. What is also needed is effective dissemination of information to the affected families about how to cope with emergencies involving the health of their children, even under constrained circumstances. Useful tips such as apprising health personnel about the vaccination history of the children and ensuring that they are given priority when it comes to the provision of vitamin-enriched biscuits and clean drinking water will go a long way in preventing the outbreak of diseases and ensuring stronger immunity from illness among them.

Managing long-term recovery

WHAT are the long-term consequences of natural disasters? John Stuart Mill, the great 19th century English economist and philosopher and the author of a classic work on economics, made some prescient observations on the long-term effects of natural disasters.

He wrote optimistically about the “great rapidity with which countries recover from state of devastation, the disappearance in a short time, of all traces of mischief done by earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and ravages of war.”

There is a great deal of truth in this observation if it is understood in the context of developed countries. The 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York had a slight overall impact on the nation’s — not even the city’s — GDP and the level of employment. The 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, that killed 6,000 persons and destroyed more than 100,000 houses left little lasting impact. However, the areas that suffered the impact of the earthquake and tsunami that brought such devastation to Southeast Asia and parts of South Asia did leave a lasting economic impact on the region. Mill’s observations don’t apply to poor countries such as Pakistan.

Mill’s belief about the impermanence of natural disasters can bring little comfort to those affected by the recent earthquake in Pakistan. The ability to quickly recover from setbacks is more pronounced in rich countries where such institutions as insurance companies are available to provide immediate relief. In poor societies, the affected have to rely mostly on the members of extended families.

However, such help is not available when disasters attack many members of the same family and whole neighbourhoods as they did in the mountainous regions of Kashmir and the northern parts of Pakistan. The immediate task before the government and the people of Pakistan, therefore, is to provide relief to the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost loved ones, most, if not all, of their assets, and the ability to earn income in the future.

Most, albeit scant, literature on the economics of natural disasters distinguishes between short-term recuperation and long-term recovery elements of efforts to deal with their aftermath. This distinction is necessary since the tools of economics that are employed in the two cases are very different; microeconomics for the former and macroeconomics for the latter. Even the more established principles of economics break down during severe natural disasters. For instance, in the language of economics, demand and supply curves may shift in unexpected ways.

This may happen because of the behaviour pattern of the affected and their sympathizers may change. Shortages of supplies and increase in demand may not produce an increase in price. There is empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis, most of it from developed countries. For instance, expected price increases did not materialize after the Kobe earthquake and in the breakdown of supply chains caused by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, on New York. While price gouging may not necessarily follow a disaster, prices can fluctuate and be very different from region to region.

Managing long-term recovery is even more problematic compared to the provision for short-term recuperation. Most analysts define long-term in the context of disasters as no more than one to three years. Preparing for recovery involves estimating the amount of capital lost as a result of disaster as well as the effect on the stream of income that flows from the assets destroyed or seriously damaged. As discussed in my last column, in estimating loss, assets should include not only buildings and transport systems but also human capital. Some disasters have a disproportionate effect on human assets.

This is certainly the case with diseases and pandemics that take a heavy human toll. For instance, the influenza epidemic of 1918 in British India killed millions of people. The loss of life was so extensive that it created a long lasting demographic impact and brought about a change in the pattern of agricultural output. Some historians also believe that it helped to invigorate the Congress party’s campaign against British rule. Disasters affect politics in unpredictable ways.

Some analysts emphasize the importance of returning income flows to pre-disaster levels rather than recreating the assets that were damaged or destroyed. Some asset owners who are affected by the disaster may decide not to recreate it in the form in which they existed before the disaster. For instance, several companies decided to move away from Kobe after the earthquake of 1995 rather than use the compensation they had received to reconstruct the lost assets in the earlier location.

This decision factored in the probability of a similar occurrence in the future. I believe that the earthquake of October 8 will lead to permanent migration from the affected areas to the large cities of north Pakistan. The government should be prepared for this large movement of people.

Pakistan has dealt with natural disasters before and there are lessons to be drawn from these experiences. The country has had its share of earthquakes and it has dealt with floods, the latter in particular. In the 1950s, Lahore and other large cities of central Punjab had periodic floods. These were caused either by torrential monsoon rains or were the result of the enormous quantities of water that flowed through the country’s many rivers from snow melting in the high mountains to the east. The construction of an extensive network of dykes and levees, combined with changes in the pattern of weather and compounding and diversion of rivers, has made floods relatively rare.

Many lessons an be learned from the experience of the recurrent disasters in the 1950s and 1960s. There are four areas on which the government needs to move immediately in order to take advantage of the international interest in providing assistance. The first, of course, is the creation of an agency that has the power and the expertise to step in when relief is to be delivered to the affected populations. Pakistan does not have such an institution; it must create one immediately. International donor agencies will be prepared to assist both in providing technical assistance for the establishment of such an institution and providing it funding to furnish it with the facilities, equipment and personnel it will need to be effective.

When I was at the World Bank, in charge of that institution’s operations in China, a project was quickly put together to provide relief following an earthquake in the northwestern part of the country. One of the conditions of support was the creation of an emergency relief agency. I believe the World Bank is prepared to help Pakistan to deal with the current situation; its assistance should be sought to establish a disaster management agency.

Given the fact that it is not only Pakistan that lies in the earthquake-prone zone but also Afghanistan, western China, and Indian held Kashmir, it may be useful to think of a multi-country disaster management agency. An important part of this agency’s operation will be to create a chain of supply and storage of non-perishable relief items that are required to meet the needs of the people in emergencies.

The second step that the government needs to take is to ensure that building codes are written and followed for all those areas where earthquakes are likely. The fact that a multi-story building collapsed in the heart of Islamabad and some other have developed structural problems is a clear indication that building codes are not being rigorously observed. They should be followed not only in the major cities but also in the small towns and villages where they should be the responsibility of the local government.

Third, the legislature should write laws required to establish insurance for catastrophic situations. Such institutions don’t exist but there is an enormous need for them. Since the poor will not be able to afford to pay premium to obtain this kind of coverage, the government should be prepared to subsidize it.

Fourth, taking advantage of the donor interest in aiding the country, this is a good time to develop an ambitious plan to improve physical infrastructure in the Northern Areas and in Kashmir. Physical works — new roads, bridges, and tunnels — will be needed to prepare the affected region for the next earthquake. They should be built to provide access to the areas suffering from distress as well as multiple routes of exit for the people likely to be trapped by natural disasters.

What will be the long-term consequences of the October earthquake? I can think of several. People in the country’s major cities will be reluctant to live in high-rise apartment buildings for as long as they don’t have the comfort that they are safe. It will take time to create that confidence and only a tight regulatory mechanism will be able to provide that. Builders will also have to import new technologies that protect high-rise structures from earthquake shocks. As already indicated there will be large-scale internal migration, from the mountainous regions of northeast Pakistan and Kashmir into the plains of Punjab. Some of this may be slowed by the launch of an infrastructure development plan that, to be implemented, will need tens of thousands of workers.

The earthquake will also have political consequences, some of them hard to see at this time. If the government is seen as an effective provider of relief, it will reap political benefits. If it fails, it will come under pressure from those who have worked hard to help the affected people. George Will, a syndicated American columnist, reminds his readers in a recent article that “the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa in what is now Indonesia, fuelled the growth of an extremist strain of Islam, bent on purging society of impurities displeasing to God. That strain has twice recently been heard from Bali.” Pakistan is equally susceptible; something the government should keep in mind.