THE groundbreaking ceremony of the K-2 and K-3 nuclear power plants on the Karachi coast last month took many people by surprise because no government document had ever mentioned the feasibility of such a big project in Karachi or at any other site in Pakistan.

Moreover, some Western diplomats have pointed out that “no reference point” exists for a 1,100MW power plant in China, which means that China has not built or operated a 1,100MW nuclear power plant to date and would be building its first such plant for export to Pakistan.

This is not extraordinary or uncommon in Pakistan-China relations. China’s first export order for a 210MW thermal power plant was meant for Guddu in 1980 followed by three identical plants at Muzaffargarh. Today China is exporting thermal power plants all over the world.

In 1990 when Benazir Bhutto and former Chinese prime minister Li Peng signed the agreement for setting up a 300MW nuclear power plant at Chashma in Mianwali district, China was operating a solitary 300MW nuclear power plant, for which a pressure vessel was supplied by South Korea. When it was known that China would supply a second 300MW plant to Pakistan, all members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) refused to supply the pressure vessel for this plant.

It was said that China would not be able to build the thermal power plant, but China built the pressure vessel indigenously with participation of engineers from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC). Today China has supplied four 300MW nuclear power plants to Pakistan, of which two are in operation and two are nearing completion.

Local contribution to these four plants has progressively increased over the last 20 years as Pakistani engineers and scientists have taken part in the setting up of these plants from the designing stage to construction. Thanks to the expertise and base set up for indigenous contribution to these plants, today Pakistan can embark upon the indigenous construction of 300MW nuclear power plants, including pressure vessels.

It can be said with confidence that revision of the PAEC target of generating 40,000MW nuclear energy by 2050 from 8,000MW by 2030 is not merely building castles in the air, as can be said about several other mega projects in the energy sector, which have been in the pipeline for decades.

It was perhaps by pre-arrangement that on the day after the groundbreaking of K-2 and K-3, senior officials from Pakistan’s nuclear establishment — the Strategic Plans Division, PAEC and the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority — made a rare appearance at a seminar arranged by an Islamabad-based think tank, and addressed possible criticism that was expected about the nuclear project in Karachi.

As K-2 and K-3 are among the few nuclear power plants being set up after the March 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan, they all made frequent references to lessons learnt from Fukushima.

“Seismic, oceanic, tsunami and other related data of the last over 50 years was collected, analysed and incorporated in the design of K-2 and K-3,” Tariq Binori of the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs section at the Strategic Plans Division told the seminar.

Tahir bin Tariq, director safety, PAEC told the seminar that while preparing contingency plans and safety measures for Kanupp (K-1), K-2 and K-3, the tsunami that hit the Gwadar and Makran coast in 1945 was extensively studied. Several additional safety measures have been incorporated based on lessons learnt from Fukushima.

He recalled that in the Fukushima tsunami waves had run over the barricading walls breaking the emergency power system and a hydrogen explosion in the reactor building had led to a meltdown of the reactor core.

The PAEC has provided for higher retaining walls and more than one alternative power system which would be located at higher ground and at a distance. Moreover, hydrogen immobiliser has been provided to prevent accumulation of hydrogen inside the reactor building.

It is also said that facing acute financial problems, funding the nearly $10bn nuclear power projects would be difficult for Pakistan. However, people are unaware that nearly 45pc of the cost would be covered by China, in the shape of state credit and suppliers’ credit. This means that Pakistan would be required to arrange $1bn per annum over the construction period.

The PAEC’s nuclear power plants are being treated by Pakistan as independent power projects, which means that their tariff comprises of capacity payments and energy charges. The energy charges of thermal IPPs have bogged down Pakistan in the vicious circle of circular debt. On the other hand, the energy component of a nuclear power plant is marginal as compared to thermal IPPs as it is only indexed to uranium prices and the cost of fuel fabrication.

Pakistan boasts it has a hydro potential of 60,000MW but has managed to develop only 6,000MW to date while mega projects like Kalabagh, Bunji, and Bhasha dams are still on the drawing board.

It is said that Pakistan has coal reserves which can create 40,000MW for ‘hundreds of years’, yet the country has failed to supply coal for its solitary 150MW coal-fired power plant at Lakhra. The incumbent government announced with great fanfare the setting up of a 6,000MW imported coal-fired power plant at Gadani but recent reports have suggested that the project is being shifted to the Bin Qasim area in Karachi.

Pakistan has failed to develop its hydro potential and coal-based power plants during the last 20 to 30 years. Imagine the scenario if we fail to develop mega hydro potential and indigenous coal reserves in the coming decades, as has happened in the last three decades, while at the same time failing to set up nuclear power plants.

The writer is author of Long Road to Chagai, a history of Pakistan’s nuclear programme.