ISLAMABAD, Dec 10: Faced with a current surplus power of over 2,500-MW and around $3 billion annual fuel import bill, Pakistan is estimated to witness over 1,000-MW energy shortfall in 2005.

This has put the government in a dilemma about the energy forecasts for the next 5-10 years and cost-effective use of indigenous natural resources because of uncertain demand and supply position.

This perception was commonly shared here on Monday at the first meeting of a special task force on energy sector recently constituted by President Gen Pervez Musharraf, official sources told Dawn .

Headed by deputy chairman planning commission Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhry, the task force comprised federal secretaries of petroleum and natural resources, industries and production, water and power, commerce and finance.

The meeting was told that 1,000 MW electricity shortfall was expected in 2005 provided the industrial activity picked up as envisaged under the federal economic forecasts.

The problem was, however, felt in view of the fact that even Wapda’s energy consumption during the current year was far lower than its estimates mainly because of sluggish economic growth and stagnation in the industrial activity. Nobody, however, pointed out that higher electricity rates were also one of the reasons behind low power consumption.

It was noted that power sector’s current capacity utilisation was not more than 9,500 MW because of low demand against estimates of 13,000 to 14,000 MW. Available power generation capacity at present was around 12,500 MW, which means that even today the country had around 2,500 to 3000 MW surplus power, a participant of the meeting said.

Major emphasis of the meeting was the question as to how the fuel import bill be reduced significantly from the current level of $3 billion per annum and agreed that conversion of thermal power plants from fuel oil to gas had the answer, besides exploitation of renewable energy resources. The conversion of motor vehicles from petrol and diesel to compressed natural gas (CNG) was another avenue to reduce import bill.

All the federal secretaries were asked to consult their respective departments and companies to collect data and information about the requirements of industrial sector so that a comprehensive and integrated strategy could be formulated.