WHERE countless controversies have failed, the raging power riots in Lahore and other cities could potentially bring the Gilani government to its knees.

The country’s electricity deficit alone has reportedly surged to 8000 megawatt. It is expected to increase in days and months ahead as demand and supply graph moves in opposite directions.

The situation is no better in other power segments. The CNG stations remain closed for two days in a week to save gas. The private power generation capacity is under utilised and industrial consumers are under immense stress because of gas supply shortfalls.

Experts believe things could have been better had the government implemented recommendations of energy expert group set up by the federal ministry of finance.

“For many areas in the economy, a consensus strategy for development has yet to be evolved. But the energy sector is unique in the sense it has been allowed to deteriorate though the government knew how to arrest the slide,” commented a finance expert who was part of the Gilani kitchen cabinet at one point of time.

The energy sector has a viable set of solutions developed indigenously by local experts of international repute but these have been ignored.

“The fact that the energy strategy was not implemented reveals fissures in the system teetering on the edge,” an expert who sees his future in Pakistan Peoples’ Party tried to neutralise the criticism directed against the Gilani government by generalising the issue of mismanagement of the energy economy.

“What fissures?” a detractor who participated in formulation of the energy strategy exclaimed. “There seems to be no system in place. All you see in Islamabad is chaos. The state institutions are decaying. The government thrives on the culture of patronage and is oriented to create hurdle instead of facilitating development,” he grumbled.

“The energy crisis can easily turn ugly in a violence-prone society. The long power outages infuriate people and de-energise the economic engine. The elected representatives stand to gain politically by resolving the problem. If they fail to give the issue the priority it deserves, no one can save them from facing the consequences of hostile public reaction,” said a member of the government’s economic advisory team hinting at powerful lobbies that have stakes in furnace oil imports and vested interests that sold a stale idea of rental power projects to the government.

“There is no defence for the government at least in this case. But the motive of willful negligence, that entails high political cost, is not clear either. I for one, therefore, seriously doubt the capacity of the current crop of leaders to deliver economic development,” said a frustrated private sector executive.

The integrated energy plan was developed by professionals drawn from industry and led by a corporate executive Farooq Rehmatullah who headed Shell and OGDC. The plan, handed over to the government in March 2009, was designed to achieve greater self-sufficiency by restructuring the sector, making the energy mix sustainable while introducing market based modern management solutions.

It strongly recommended consolidation of relevant entities by merging them all to create the National Energy Authority headed by a secretary who reported directly to the country’s chief executive.

Dr Asim, federal minister for petroleum,identified overlapping of responsibility of energy policy and management by parallel ministries as a key reason for the lack of progress in the field despite the governments’ best intentions.

The said energy plan proposed to change the energy mix to a combination that maximised the use of indigenous resources for meeting energy demand. The document warned that if the high furnace oil dependence was not changed, the projected annual oil import bill by 2025 would touch $62 billion.”We made our projections assuming the crude oil price of $100 a barrel. The current international price has already crossed $120 mark. The country cannot afford to spend scarce foreign resources on rising oil import bill. Energy mix has to change,” Rahmatullah commented when reached over phone in Karachi.

“We suggested run of river project that could have been completed in two years and generated up to 5000 megawatts. It would have suppressed the energy deficit to 3000 megawatts and allowed breathing space for industry and some relief to citizens suffering long hours of power outages in sizzling summers.”

“We made detailed suggestions on modalities of restructuring state-run energy generating and distribution companies (Gencos and Discoc). Nothing happened. As to why, I am not sure. It could be political convenience or issues related to capacities in the government,” he elaborated.

The energy plan proposed to allocate gas using economic criteria based on price parity between competing fuels across users. The thrust, it stated, would be to maximise use of indigenous gas. Using criteria based on value addition, alternative use and secondary benefits, the load management policy was to be crafted.

Based on the current data, power generation should carry the highest weightage followed by industry, commercial users, domestic (for cooking only) and CNG, in gas allocation.

The private sector representatives were too frustrated to offer comments. Kamran Mirza, CEO of Pakistan Business Council commended the energy plan that his forum had also endorsed but expressed disappointment over its non-implementation.

“It is sad that the government did not heed the expert’s advice. I know the working of the government from inside as I sit on boards of several companies, some state-run. The problems cannot be wished away, they need to be dealt with. I do not see problems of circular debt, etc. going anywhere,” Mirza said promising a detailed view later.