ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is estimated to suffer a rare 36 per cent water shortage in the ongoing Rabi season, amid fewer rainfalls and flows in two contributing rivers – Jhelum and Kabul – plunging to a historic low, compelling the authorities to adopt tight irrigation patterns that minimise crop losses.

At an ‘emergency meeting’, the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Wednesday concluded (on the basis of different working papers from all stakeholders) that the overall water shortage during the current season would be 36pc, almost double the shortage (20pc) forecast a month ago.

Hence, the need for best utilisation of limited resources through contingency distribution plan that was approved by the advisory committee.

Irsa spokesman, Khalid Idrees Rana, said the meeting noted the total river flows in October at 4 million acre feet (MAF) against previous estimates of 4.9MAF, showing a 17pc gap.

The water regulator and the provinces had jointly made adjustments during the month to keep outflows 16pc lower that water distribution plan approved on September 29 and ensured 7.3MAF supplies to provinces to help mature Kharif crops.

He said that Sindh had already started wheat sowing while Punjab would follow this week. Total river flows were recorded at 46,000 cusecs on Wednesday which was 20pc lower than 50-year historic averages of Kabul and Indus and almost 94-year averages in case of Jhelum and Chenab.

Sindh and Punjab to receive reduced shares

Likewise, the country’s reservoirs had a total storage of about 5.9MAF as of now which was 30pc lower than historic average.

While reviewing the overall water availability for the remaining Rabi season, the regulator deliberated on three different working papers from Sindh, Punjab and the Wapda and concluded that full season shortage would be around 36pc lower than the availability estimates of water apportionment accord.

Therefore, the total water availability for the remaining part of the season was estimated at 18.3MAF, including 12.4 MAF of river flows and stocks in reservoirs at 5.9MAF.

After accounting for 1.7MAF of conveyance losses, the net divisible water availability was put at 16.6MAF. As such, the total availability for the entire season (including October) was estimated at 23.94MAF instead of 29.5MAF.

Mr Rana said the meeting decided to keep KP (0.7MAF) and Balochistan (1.2MAF) unaffected by the shortage because of their infrastructure limitations and be given a total of 1.9MAF of water.

The entire shortage was then applied to Sindh and Punjab, who would now get a total of 22.03MAF during the entire season. As a consequence of this 36pc shortage, Sindh’s share was curtailed to 9.5MAF, instead of 11.9MAF, as worked out earlier on the basis of 29.5MAF availability estimates.

Likewise, Punjab’s water share was also brought down to 12.6MAF against the previous allocation of 15.73MAF.

The spokesman said the officials of agriculture departments of Sindh and Punjab reported that they were sowing crops on the basis of 20pc shortage envisaged last month and hoped all crop output targets would be met.

Asked if the shortages were unprecedented and what could be the cause, Mr Rana said the flows in most rivers were no doubt unprecedented and particularly Jhelum and Kabul were flowing at their historic lows which may have been caused by global climate change.

He said the country used to carryover 10.5MAF stocks in reservoirs in Rabi season compared to just 8.5MAF this season, showing a gap of 2MAF.

Also, the Irsa had facilitated provinces in maturing Kharif crops with lenient discharges and that too had a contribution to overall availability for Rabi.

Director Irrigation Sindh Abid Qureshi said his provinces requested the meeting to provide its water share as per the provincial demand because the sowing was in full swing and the 36pc shortage be adjusted in the latter part of the season.

Irsa had accepted the demand, he said, adding, that the provincial governments would try to manage its crop targets within the available shortage and ensure that sufficient water reached the tail-enders during ongoing sowing season. He said lower Sindh had already completed 12pc sowing.

Ironically, as the country was facing acute water shortage for the upcoming Rabi season, more than 9MAF of water went down the sea during the recently concluded Kharif season owing to lack of sufficient storage capacity.

On Sept 28, Irsa had estimated about 20pc water shortage for Rabi season, flagged the falling storage capacity as a serious concern and asked the provincial leadership to start building dams on a war-footing.

The Rabi season is during Oct-Dec and ends in April-May. Wheat is the largest, while gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are other Rabi crops.

Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2017