WHEAT sowing in Punjab is running behind the expected schedule and facing dry weather.

Out of a 16.8m acre target, the province has still not managed even 25pc of it, as of Nov 20. This means that the sowing of 75pc of the crop will be late.

The completed 25pc sowing came mainly from the rice belt, where soil had retained enough moisture from the previous crop.

Two areas (barani and the cotton belts) are facing a hard time because one is totally dependent on rain and the other on canal water as the sub-soil water is mainly brackish.

Punjab planners think that the 2.2m acres of the barani area have the potential to dent the final yield. With October and November being completely dry and a meteorological forecast indicating that this trend will hold for the rest of the wheat life-cycle, the situation could worsen for individual farmers in the barani area, even if the national production target is met because of other variable factors.

The situation is similar in the cotton belt, where sub-soil water is brackish and canal water missing by 18pc. To make matters worse, some canals, mainly those feeding cotton areas, were closed during October to save water for the late rabi season, when dams normally get empty.

The current situation could create problems, at both the individual and national levels. The poorest in the barani areas have a limited choice of crops with rains getting more erratic. The new option is to go for technology and markets

This closure stoked off farmer protests as the soil stayed too dry to allow sowing for many farmers. Only a negligible number of farmers, who fall in the sweet water zone and own tube wells, were able to sow wheat.

In the final analysis, Punjab will probably get closer to the target, or even achieve it. Out of all rabi crops, wheat is the only one which receives the government’s price support. The crop is relatively easier to tend to and does not need much investment. Even the fertiliser timing can be chosen depending on the farmers’ pockets. Seed is not a problem: stored domestic seeds are generally used. All these factors encourage farmers during the rabi season to go for wheat.

However, the current situation could create problems, both at the individual and national level. The poorest of the poor in the barani areas have a limited choice of crops with rains getting more erratic due to climate change. The new option is to go for technology and markets.

Punjab has already taken initiatives like turning its rain-fed areas into olive and grape valleys.

Though it has offered huge subsidies for both, the marketing strategy and mechanism is missing. There is no extraction facility in the area that could process olives, or one that could aid in value addition for grapes.

There is a lack of adequate focus on other crops. Pulses are one example. Last year, their production fell by almost 40pc and their prices rose by 30-35pc. Pakistan’s total requirement of pulses is over 1m tonnes, but only 0.6m tonnes were produced last year.

The gram — taken as the only source of lower cost protein for the poor — has seen an even bigger reduction. From a production of 0.82m tonnes in 2006-07, it fell to 0.32m tonnes in 2013, and the output has not recovered since. It’s per acre yield was more in 1947 than what the farmers reap now.

Punjab should identify the reasons behind the success of wheat and the failure of its pulses despite the billions it has spent.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, November 21st, 2016