Agreement to abstain: On Sunday, after weeks of in-fighting, the Socialist Party’s policy-setting federal committee voted 139 to 96 to allow the conservatives to take power. They decided to abstain in a parliamentary vote of confidence on a government led by acting conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy instead of casting their ballot against him as they did in a previous September vote. This gives Rajoy’s government enough traction to see it through a vote of confidence. With the abstention of the Socialists — who have 85 MPs — Rajoy will get the simple majority he needs in the 350-seat lower house.

Kingmaker: With this knowledge in hand, Rajoy will meet with King Felipe VI on Tuesday, a necessary step in the process to have him appointed head of government in a non-caretaker capacity. If Rajoy tells him he thinks he has the necessary backing, the king will nominate him as prime ministerial candidate, possibly as soon as Tuesday evening.

Halloween: Parliamentary speaker Ana Pastor will then decide when to call the required two rounds of parliamentary debates after which confidence votes can be held. The first one requires an absolute majority, which Rajoy will not get. The second one is held 48 hours later, and only requires a simple majority. As such, the first vote could take place on Thursday, Oct 27 or Friday, Oct 28 — and the second and final one will be held on either Saturday, Oct 29 or Sunday, Oct 30. Whatever happens, the vote must be held before Oct 31 under a constitutional timeframe.

A government, finally?: If Rajoy wins the vote, the king will name him prime minister and he will set about forming a cabinet. But he will have a tough task on his hands and will face huge opposition in parliament.

Published in Dawn, October 24th, 2016