IS it a ray of hope or just an illusion? Amidst the acrimony and bombast that has been the Pakistan-India relationship recently has come an exchange of letters discussing the possibility of talks between the two countries. It is a measure of how strained ties are that even though both sides have mooted a very different agenda for potential discussions — thereby all but discarding the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue before it could even begin — the very fact they are talking about the possibility of talks can be seen as a small step in the right direction. While the views from Islamabad/Rawalpindi and New Delhi are clouded by mutual suspicion, it does appear that the dual offer of talks is rooted in a familiar dialectic of domestic politics and international diplomacy.

For the Pakistani government, the offer to India of talks centred on the Kashmir dispute sends a signal domestically that it is willing to challenge Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and will not forget the people of Kashmir under Indian control. Internationally, the offer of talks sends a signal to anxious world powers that Pakistan believes in dialogue — much the same as the Indian government is likely hoping to achieve for itself through its counter offer of talks. Meanwhile, within India, the Indian government’s suggestion for bilateral talks centred on so-called cross-border terrorism will appeal to hawks and those wanting a tough line taken against Pakistan. Yet, from self-serving motives can emerge the smallest of diplomatic breakthroughs and, as the events of the past couple of weeks have so grimly demonstrated, better that India and Pakistan talk about talks than hurl accusations at each other.

Whether the two states are willing to acknowledge it or not, there is an unchanging reality of the Pakistan-India relationship: the Kashmir dispute is fundamental to what Pakistan wants of India, while the terrorism issue is central to what India needs to discuss with Pakistan. If either side tries to exclude the other’s central concern from bilateral talks, it will not get anywhere near its core policy objectives. Perhaps the Indian government should also consider the pointlessness of its verbal attacks against Pakistan regarding Balochistan since the Quetta bombing of last week. Such an approach will either be seen as a threat, or yet another attempt by India to deny the very existence of the Kashmir dispute. In either case, it will strengthen the hand of anti-India hawks inside Pakistan. What possible rational policy objective can Prime Minister Modi and his government hope to achieve from this? When India and Pakistan are thundering at each other, those advocating peace in both countries may seem hopelessly out of touch with reality and marginalised. But dialogue and peace are the only rational options for two states in which live nearly a fifth of all humanity.

Published in Dawn, August 19th, 2016