LEADING business representatives of Karachi believe the investment in manufacturing may start materialising by 2018 with further improvements in energy supply. Till then the private investible funds will keep flowing into short-term, low-risk, high return avenues in trading and construction sectors.

The city’s hardened business community that endured long patches of violence and insecurity now expresses confidence in what it calls the ‘economic revival’ of the country’s commercial capital.

Movers and shakers, reached over phone, say they are watching political developments with interest, but they believe that positive factors currently outweigh negatives. Their sentiments are exhibited in calm commodity and currency markets and range-bound fluctuations in the capital market.They are upbeat over the construction boom supported by inflow of monies of asset owning classes parked overseas.

“An enterprising Karachiite is all set to prove his mettle. For too long the city was kept hostage by militant gangs gagging the voice of dissent. It is good that people are breaking their silence,” said a notable, who spoke to Dawn with gusto, but on second thought called back to let his comment go anonymous.

“I have not sensed angst in business circles, though people are discussing politics and MQM defections. I don’t think these happenings will affect long-term plans of companies,” Ehsan Malik, CEO, Pakistan Business Council commented.

“Yes, the energy situation is improving and low borrowing cost is an inducement for investment but the absence of debt market in Pakistan mars the prospects of raising capital to finance long-term mega projects,” Malik said.

Movers and shakers say they are watching political developments in Karachi with interest, but they believe that positive factors currently outweigh negatives

He contested the perception that the city’s investor is shy. “Businesses do not put their funds to sleep. They plough it back in a measured manner to maximise returns,” he made a point.

Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) President Younus Bashir reaffirmed the prevailing views. “We do not expect the situation to slide into a chaos. At stake is not just this city and people who invested here. Much depends on the future of Karachi, a city that in the worst of times in its recent history actually chipped in more than half of the total tax collection in the government kitty”, he noted.

He was pinning hope on the recent reshuffling in the police and argued in favour of extending the domain of activities of para military force to make Karachi safe and secure.

“The police need to be completely depoliticised if the government wishes for a satisfactory level of performance. I think the induction of Rangers to assist the government in countering the terror threats in the city helped and it should seriously consider expanding their base to control street crimes,” he said over phone.

Pakistan Bedwear Exporters Association President Shabbir Ahmed sounded worried. “Only this week robbers held me at gunpoint in a busy commercial area. A diplomat travelling with me in the car was left shattered. Fortunately, he was left untouched,” he narrated his ordeal.

He said for the last two months the street crime graph has again started climbing and incidents of kidnappings in posh areas have increased. “Many families quietly cut a deal with kidnappers for the safe return of their dear ones. They feel so insecure that they do not report the incident to the police. How can you expect people to make sound investment decisions in this environment,” he lamented.

Association of Builders and Developers (ABAD) President Hanif Gohar was full of hope. “Many mega projects are going full force. Market is up 30pc over the last two years. There is an inverse correlation of Pakistan with the UAE property market. There are fears that another economic crisis is in the making in the Middle East. Without an iota of doubt Pakistanis are bringing back their money they parked abroad,” he said.

“I don’t think investors care for making or breaking of political parties; all they care for is their economic interests. For the time being they see no better option to park their investible capital than real estate,” he said.

Former chairman SITE Association Engineer Jabbar was concerned. “Well the political process matters. I don’t think the weakening of political parties will serve long-term interests of the city or the country. Often in the past the business community has compromised its long term interests for immediate gains,” he asserted.

“Who can say under oath that he has not given protection money to known gangsters in Karachi”, he asked. “You reap what you sow,” he observed.

Majyd Aziz saw better times ahead. “The road to recovery is long and arduous but I believe we are moving in the right direction,” he commented reposing full confidence in the establishment as opposed to the politicians.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, March 21st, 2016