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The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, DC.
THAT Pakistan has thus far managed to steer clear of the fires in the Middle East is no less than a miracle.
The Pakistani government dodged the Saudi request for direct involvement in Yemen last year. But this pressure will sustain. The reason is simple: there is no other Muslim country that has deep links with key Arab regimes and can be coerced to lend an army actually worth its salt.
Quite apart from the Saudi demand, Pakistan also risks being burnt if the principal beneficiaries of the chaos in the Middle East — the militant Islamic State group and its affiliates — extend their reach into South Asia proper. They are already operating in Afghanistan and beginning to do so in Pakistan.
This is hardly surprising: after all, they have old connections here from the time they were part of Al Qaeda; they espouse a sectarian agenda that appeals to Sunni extremist outfits in Pakistan; and any number of militant groups out of favour and under attack from the Pakistani state are in desperate need of a patron that Al Qaeda no longer is.
Pakistan must avoid getting sucked into this mess.
Pakistan must avoid getting sucked into this mess. The starting point for this has to be the recognition that Islamabad’s traditional pro-Arab policy has been overtaken by events.
Iran has made a diplomatic comeback. And since Iran isn’t a regime — it’s a real state with real institutions and a controlled but functioning democracy — it has a greater chance of cashing in on this opportunity to alter the balance of power in the region. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition seems insistent on ignoring the single-most obvious lesson from the post-9/11 wars: use of kinetic force, especially in foreign territory, has not and cannot defeat the kind of non-state actors/dissidents fighting discredited, misgoverned Muslim states.
The present Saudi force-heavy strategy won’t deliver and as the House of Saud’s desperation grows, they’ll inevitably look to crank up the pressure on Pakistan. We’ve already seen hints of a ‘with us or against us’ ultimatum — mercifully so far only from an Emirati minister shooting from the hip.
But when this comes seriously and directly from the Saudis, we’d be stuck — for defying this block beyond a point entails grave costs. Foremost amongst these would be a possible move towards Pakistani diaspora repatriation that is virtually unaffordable given the economic burden it entails and the hardened religious interpretations the expats are likely to bring back with them.
But Arab desperation could also lead to more blatant coercion, most obviously, by stoking sectarian fires within Pakistan. Of course, obliging the Arabs could lead the Iranians to consider the same approach to force Pakistan to rethink such a move.
Pakistan’s only recourse is to play the middle. It should proactively mediate the conflict. Not just by making high-level visits to Tehran and Riyadh. I am imagining a permanent backchannel to identify a middle ground in Yemen that convinces the Arab world to drop their demand for mercenary Pakistani forces.
Meanwhile, the traditional Pakistani direct (physical protection) and indirect (political) support to Arab countries should continue, and perhaps be buttressed further as a reassuring tactic. Arab states beginning to face domestic terrorism will also increasingly need counterterrorism assistance. Pakistan has a wealth of experience to contribute here and should do so eagerly — again, without putting any of its own personnel on the ground.
To Iran, this rather ambivalent Pakistani position must be presented as being contingent on its assurance that the Saudi mainland will not be threatened under any circumstances. For crossing this line would be the surest way to panic Arab regimes and force them to read the riot act to Pakistan if it still remains non-committal.
As for IS, there is no room for complacency. But thankfully, the most critical state response here is already in play. At this stage, you’ve basically got to prevent the IS franchise from becoming a networked group. This requires preventive counterterrorism techniques coordinated between the civilians and the military. This is an area where the security apparatus seems to be doing better than any other.
That said, the one factor that could dent my cautious optimism is negative regional developments.
If the situation in Afghanistan goes further south and spills over into Pakistan or if the eastern border heats up, the state’s attention will be diverted. IS and its affiliates will find precisely the kind of space and time they need. Pakistan should be on the lookout for IS-inspired attempts to create circumstances that could lead a breakdown in Af-Pak or Pak-India relations.
Pakistan has survived the Middle Eastern storm so far. But things will continue to heat up in the Arab world. As they do, the demand for Pakistani presence there as well as the potential for IS to expand outside the Middle East will only increase.
The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, DC.
Published in Dawn, February 16th, 2016
Comments (25) Closed
Excellent article and good advice. Obama attempt to furhter an Arab spring has had negative consequents far wider than Arab countries. It may have reached as far as Indonesia in a negative way. One would hope that no more countries be unsettled by this and the Palestinian issue.
The New Pakistan will not be sucked into the ME turmoil.
I repeat, I said the New Pakistan.
Between a rock and a hard place, the author has pointed out a scenario that is very likely in the near future, have we thought about it?
It's hard to know who's fighting whom in the Middle East.
Excellent analysis and advice. However, its implementation will require a leadership that has Pakistan's best interest in mind, a leadership that unfortunately no longer exists in Pakistan.
Pakistan should clear of this lurking potential to Shia/Sunni warfare. If any of our leaders owe something to SA they should volunteer themselves not Pakistani troops.
Let Pakistan concentrate on its own East/West borders, there is plenty going on that needs attention.
Sohail Qureshi
Ashburn, VA
Very well written. PM announced that Pakistan will appoint a 'peace envoy' after his Saudi-Iran visit. No further development has taken place since. We have capable people like Ashraf Jahangir Qazi who have headed UN Missions and have been directly involved in facilitating peace talks. Him or someone like him can be entrusted with this important assignment.
Pakistan : Between a hard rock and a hard place. The best thing is to stand your ground...with a clear message : any mischief and it would mean crossing the red line, that would entail use of all options by Pakistan.
Plenty of intelligent analysis 'behind' the article, but too subtle (cautious) a style to put all the facts adequately, and charitable solution suggested I'm afraid.
Who needs to announce this recognition? ("The starting point for this has to be the recognition that Islamabad’s traditional pro-Arab policy has been overtaken by events")
What state actors should be doing this? ("It should proactively mediate the conflict. Not just by making high-level visits to Tehran and Riyadh. I am imagining a permanent backchannel to identify a middle ground in Yemen that convinces the Arab world to drop their demand for mercenary Pakistani forces")
I'm unable to criticize the author, plenty of threats out there.
With the dearth of conscience and empathy in current crop of politicians and leaders, Mr. Moeed your suggestions (even though logical) appear too far-fetched.
Pakistan is in between a Rock and a hard place.
The world politics is heading from uni polarity to multipolarity as recently cautioned by Russian leadership.It means situation in ME will further worsen. A sharp and cunning group of experts is necessary to be part of foreign policy makers to safeguard Pakistan's national interests and effectively come up with contemporary political world.
good analysis loved ur article, to the point
and I may add india is in a good position bec if Pakistan does not toe the gulf line then they will try to get close to india just to force Pakistan to do its bidding
already u can see with uae crown prince visit to india last week and all the investment and security agreement and india is a more then willing partner as we need investment and a close relation with GCC for our enery need, investment, expatriate wirking there and put pakistn on the backfoot
now the question is what pakistn will do to stop this, and here Pakistani statesmenship foreign policy will be tested
the author has forgotten what Iran did in early 2000 it came close to India. It was ready to open second front against Pakistan from Iran. Middle ground will put Pakistan in trouble, if Pakistan did not took stand against Iranian terrorism, it will lost its friends and in future will submit before Iran. Today it is not matter of taking side but being humanitarian and helping Syrian people. Though Saudi is bad but right now Turkey and Pakistan need coordination to liberate Syria
When someone pays a huge amount of money, he surely is not expecting a huge smile and thank you, he would like the favour returned when its required. Therefore, one should think before taking someone's favour, but since a favour has been taken it has to be returned as well. If not, then don't expect any help from them in the future. They are no kids who can be distracted by offering lollipops.
Every obligation has a cost : pressure.
Moeed Always keep balance in his views. Pakistan is playing very well so far. Apparently, repatriation of Pakistani Diaspora is not so easy, as doing so Saudi Arabia can lose even its internal security, which is somehow responsibility of Pakistan. In whole world now, Only Pakistani Professional Army has practical experience, ability and skills to fight inland terrorism phenomenon. Although ISIS, Alqaeda etc is created and operated by American Israel Partnership, they will try to extend it where ever they planned. Only Pakistani soldiers have capacity to fight battles, even we see around the world, only Pak Army understand all modern situations of battlefields. The Saudi Govt has made few mistakes dealing with Pakistan. The pressure they are posing to Pakistan, may pose to India in its activities against Pakistan. They made only personal relationships with weak and characterless politicians and given personal benefits only. They hired more Indian workers than Pakistan.
UAE, especially Dubai accommodated more Indians. These are only countries which can given them cheap labour, so they are not beneficent on countries in doing this. On the other side Pakistan is also looking towards Iran as better future friend. There may be corridors through Iran to Turkey and Europe, and Iran can get road-rail links to China and Gawadar. Many things happening, Iran also needs Pakistan all the way for a better future. The good thing is that things are also moving in same side. But till American invasions lose its effect and world will not get irked from american created terrorism phenomenon, uncertainty will remain as it is.
Excellent Article!!! it has been well articulated. The Muslims world has been looking for a mature and strong Leadership who has strong political wisdom to make us united again . The all disputed concern issues could be resolved by mutual understanding with in the Islamic states . we Hope The world Muslims countries would be get united again diplomatically and politically for the great interest of Islamic ummah (Community) for resolving their issues .Iran and Pakistan have diplomatic Experts who have capabilities to resolved the issues peacefully in this region . The both countries have strong institutions and a controlled functioning democracy with in the states . The both countries have strong political leaderships and Foreign policy Experts and have greater chance of cashing in on this opportunity to alter the balance of power in the region diplomatically in the great interests of Islamic world.
An excellent analysis.
A thought provoking cautions for Pakistani State
Well done Pakistan. In spite of all the flak NS is getting his govt. appears to have done well. Good for Pakistani people.
Casual external policy proved too much noxious for internal and external security. There is immense difference between personal relations and relations at the state level. Issue of power and vendetta between two spearheads of Islamic world.We should play a role to dwindle the split between two countries.
@RA Well said. And its realty.
@seeker What's good in it . Pakistan does 't favour to Arab world the Aid Pakistan is getting will be withheld.
Well said sir. No boots on the ground in the Arab countries. Keep on pounding this theme .