HYDERABAD: There seems to be no end in sight to a decline in drought-stricken Thar people’s untold hardship as weather experts warn they must brace themselves again for the fourth drought in a row.

Experts see no significant weather system developing in the southern region of the country in the near future except for a light drizzle for July 18 and 19.

While Tharis are accustomed to harsher climatic conditions, this time round the inclement weather has already taken a heavy toll on them since 2012, leading to deaths of hundreds of children in early 2013 from malnourishment and hunger.

There has been only marginal rainfall and that too in isolated areas in the desert region, which is enough neither for producing fodder nor for seasonal crops of cluster beans, millet and sesame.

“We don’t see any significant weather system developing in the southern parts of the country (Sindh) which includes the Thar desert. We only anticipate drizzle on July 18 and 19. If that is to happen then intensity of drought is bound to become more severe for the desert inhabitants,” said Azmat Hayat, director of the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Centre of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad. “Even current phase of drought is severe in Thar,” he added.

Mr Hayat said that out of the total annual rainfall i.e. 250mm in Thar, 80 per cent came from monsoonal rains. “Our calculation is there will again be a huge deficit in rainfall system because out of 250mm rainfall, 230mm is to be seen in the monsoon. Ground or surface vegetation could not sustain severity of heat. I foresee a graver situation ahead in Thar,” he cautioned.

“Livestock can face more stress. So, it is an impending disaster and we should prepare ourselves for it because if we fail then its impact and scale of resultant destruction might be widespread,” he said.

He believed successive droughts were a direct result of climate change which was evident form extreme weather events in 2010, 2011 and 2012 when some parts of the country witnessed heavy rains and even super floods while others like Thar and Lasbela faced drought.

AN elderly woman leaves her home in search of water.—Dawn

The arid region needs three spells of rainfall in the monsoon to grow seasonal crops and fodder for livestock — main source of livelihood of a large desert population — but there has been no rains over the past three years and only marginal rainfall in isolated areas.

“With 100mm of rainfall farmers expect that only 1.5ft of soil’s layer will get wet. For sowing crop another rain is needed within 20 days of the first rainfall and then another one, which is called ‘baari’ in local parlance, within a month of the second shower to expect productivity in seasonal crops,” said Ali Akbar Rahimoon, whose non-governmental organisation has worked in the desert area for quite some time.

Thar sees seasonal migration of the communities of scheduled caste Kohli, Bheel and Meghwar and Muslim communities like Samejo and others. Last year, the migration activity stepped up because of severity of drought.

The community that had migrated to irrigated areas last year has either returned or is returning along with their livestock after working in sugar cane and wheat fields which they harvest to make both ends meet every year.

“They have returned to their abodes only for ‘Thadri’ or ‘akhari teej’ festival. Otherwise, they will sit idle,” said Dr Sono Khangharani, a noted activist of Thar.

He said that these communities had returned with wheat harvests. “But I can already feel despondency showing among them. They will now again leave for irrigated areas when cultivation of paddy (rice) begins,” he observed.

According to him, millet could be grown even if there were belated rains but there would be lesser productivity. “I think the government should declare the fourth drought right now and quit its practice of declaring it post mid-August,” he said.

Since colonial era, revenue authorities have been declaring droughts if there are no monsoon rains until Aug 15. Then a process for declaring the area as calamity-hit sets in motion with approvals of different layers of procedural formalities.

DIG Dr Sanaullah Abbasi’s report on recent Thar drought conducted under the chief minister’s directive had clearly pointed out the fact that red-tape delayed the relief process.

Mr Khangharani argued that 70 per cent of the area had already been hit by drought, so there should be no further delay in declaring it as such. “But the government is not talking about it. If it is declared calamity-stricken right now then it will automatically kick start relief process not only by the government but by NGOs as well,” he said.

Mr Rahimoon warned that each day passing without rain only increased chances of more widespread destruction in the coming days. “It’s quite clear haris and farmers will not get desired productivity even if there are rains in August or by late July. The ideal period for germination is June which is already past. So, belated rains will be of little help,” he lamented.

Moreover, the belated rains would only be able to recharge groundwater to some extent and help some amount of vegetation to grow. “It has been erratic rainfall. Therefore, we don’t believe that it is going to help people here that much,” he said.

“Unfortunately, we don’t have any data available at government level about actual number of people migrating to irrigated areas each season,” he said.

“It is high time an assessment should be made about vulnerability of people,” he said.

Condition of NIC for receiving wheat irks Tharis The Sindh government has completed six phases of distribution of 50kg wheat bags among drought-hit Thar population but for the seventh phase to start the deputy commissioner of Tharparkar has attached a difficult condition.

He wants every recipient of relief wheat to produce national identity card of husband and wife to be able to get wheat.

The condition has though been challenged by three lawyers of the District Bar Association, arguing that with illiteracy rate so high in the desert region many people usually do not have NICs and in case of a widow it will become next to impossible for her to produce her NIC and that of her deceased spouse.

Published in Dawn, July 18th, 2015

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