WITH Punjab sowing cotton on 5.7m acres against a target of 6m acres, things seem to be looking up for the crop.

All the crucial signs that ultimately help determine the yield size have been favourable, except for the timing of the sowing. Most of the crop was sown late, as the harvesting of wheat was delayed by almost three weeks. This was followed up by heavy rains; as a result, most of the sowing was delayed till mid-May and extended till the end of June.

Apart from the timing, the most crucial factor, which had caused huge troubles in the past, was the availability and quality of the seed. This year, Punjab had 100pc availability of seed, according to the federal seed certification department (FSC). The province required 31,000 tonnes of seed for 6.2m acres, while 30,755 tonnes of seed were available.

However, there were slight differences between federal and provincial estimates for seed requirements. The FSC had calculated the seed requirement at 5kg per acre and the acreage target for Punjab at 6.2m acres. The province had fixed the target at 6m acres and had been recommending 6kg of seed per acre.

But ultimately, both calculations got squared up when one considers that Punjab ended up sowing the crop on around 5.7m acres, even if the farmers used 6kg of seed per acre.

Another problem with the FSC’s projections is that they only reflect availability of the input, not actual sales. It should have advised the Pakistan Seed Association to come up with actual sale figures.

Among other positive factors, water availability has been the most heartening this season. The national water flow has been so huge that water planners are finding it hard to manage the inflows.

By the end of May, the country had a record storage of close to nine million acre feet (maf), with Tarbella Dam having 3.484maf, Mangla Lake 5.17maf and Chashma 0.264maf. It was this back up water that supported cotton sowing throughout June. And healthy rains were in addition to this.

Temperatures during the period were also good. The weather factor helped germination at two levels. The everyday spike in mercury remained short lived and was followed by a substantial drop in temperatures. Throughout the period, the nights remained cooler and temperatures remained around 20 degrees Celsius. Right now, central and southern Punjab present a healthy look of crops and plants.

There have been reports of localised attacks of white fly, mite and bollworms, but these have been within manageable limits. The peripheral districts of southern Punjab are currently reporting a bollworm attack, but it is in isolated fields and has not gained any momentum. The farmers are on the watch and have been managing it so far.

With the metrological department forecasting less-than-normal rains this monsoon, the planners hope that things should remain manageable. They know that predicting anything about the cotton crop is difficult till the last picking. But early clues indicate that Punjab may get close to its 10.50m bales.

Despite these healthy signs, no one in Punjab thinks that the province would be able to achieve the production target; history is not on its side. However, further investment is expected now that the federal government has reduced the general sales tax on pesticides by 10pc.

The farmers, the industry and the experts believe that Pakistan has the potential to achieve over 20m cotton bales from the same acreage with the right policies and investment.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, July 6th, 2015

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