NEW DELHI: Two more Indian states — Haryana and Maharashtra, this time — went to polls on Wednesday and both, according to the standard analysis by the local media on such occasions, are a key test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.

It is another matter that the country has had several state polls and by-elections since Mr Modi’s resounding victory in May and, as such, continued to replenish his jingoistic zeal. In both state polls where he campaigned hard, unlike the in-between ones in which he fared poorly, it was Pakistan, and not so much his domestic political opponents that was in Mr Modi’s crosshairs.

The outcome, according to exit polls, looks encouraging for all the efforts the prime minister exerted for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is likely to emerge as the largest party in both states; stopping short of majority though.

The Congress Party and former defence minister Sharad Pawar’s National Congress Party, which were ruling Maharashtra for 15 years before they split ahead of the elections, were projected to lose heavily while Shiv Sena was predicted to emerge as the second largest party.

One exit poll conducted by ‘Today’s Chanakya’, however, gave a clear majority to BJP in both Maharashtra and Haryana.

Maharashtra, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned extensively, addressing 27 rallies, appears to be heading for a BJP government for the first time in the state’s history. Previously it had supported a Shiv Sena-led coalition.

According to C-voter exit poll telecast on Times Now and Zee News channels, BJP was projected to get 129 out of 288 seats in Maharashtra. Its erstwhile ally Shiv Sena was projected to get 56 seats while Congress was predicted to bag 43, NCP 36, MNS 12 and others 12. For a majority, a party has to get 145 seats.

In the outgoing assembly, BJP had 47 seats while Shiv Sena had 45. Congress had 82 seats, NCP 62 and MNS, the parochial offshoot of Shiv Sena, had 12.

Exit poll conducted by AC Nielson for ABP channel gave BJP 127 seats, Shiv Sena 77, Congress 40, NCP 34 and MNS 5.

An exit poll telecast on India TV gave BJP between 124 and 134 seats, Shiv Sena 51-61, Congress 38-48, NCP 31-41 and MNS and others 9-15 each.

Today’s Chanakya exit poll telecast on News24 channel gave BJP a clear majority with 151 seats while Shiv Sena was given 71. Congress was given 27 while NCP 28. MNS was projected to get 11.

The same pollster projected clear majority for BJP in Haryana, giving it 52 of the 90 seats. INLD comes second with 23 seats, Congress 10 and others 5.

In the outgoing assembly, Congress had 40 seats, BJP had only four, INLD 31 and HJC 6. Others had 9.

Exit poll by C-Voter projected 37 seats for BJP in Haryana, 28 for INLD, 15 for Congress, 6 for Haryana Janhit Congress and 4 for others.

AC-Nielson gave 46 to BJP, Congress 10, INLD 29, HJC two and others three.

If the projections come true, BJP will be forming the government in Haryana for the first time ever.

Mr Modi campaigned extensively in the state, addressing 11 rallies. Results are expected on Sunday. And before relations begin to improve with Pakistan, delayed elections in Jammu and Kashmir will be searching for a polarising agenda.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2014