In what some experts term as a surprising move, the Economic Survey of Pakistan has increased the contribution of livestock sector to country’s agricultural economy to 55.9pc. These agriculture experts had been questioning even the previous figure of 51pc. They thought it was engineered to hide failure on the agricultural front.

“No one is prepared to accept this whooping increase of almost 4pc within two years as true.“It is a plain case of figure fudging to meet certain criteria set by the lenders,” they insist.

The livestock sector has always been a weak area for policymakers for two reasons: state failure to count heads and absence of other credible mechanisms to ascertain animal population and their contribution to the economy.

According to the economic survey, the livestock contributed Rs776.50bn in 2013-14 against Rs756.30bn last year, or an increase of 2.7pc

The only way to arrive at a credible figure of animal population in the country is to count each and every head which does not happen for years It is a grey area, where the government can claim economic laurels with impunity to draw political mileage.

Secondly, the crop contribution, which forms basis of the overall agricultural role in the economy, goes through the different layers of checking. The revenue machinery, the canal revenue departments, the provincial food departments, the industry (PCGA and APTMA in case of cotton and flour mills in case of wheat), international bodies like FAO and national bodies like the Suparco play a role in collecting figures of crop contribution. There exists no such mechanism in case of livestock.

In the absence of both, the bureaucracy has devised its own mechanism to arrive at new figures — both for the

animal population and economic role they play in the national economy. They had been increasing both at roughly 2.5pc, just above the population increase.This year as well, they did precisely the same. According to the economic survey, the livestock contributed Rs776.50bn against Rs756.30bn last year, or an increase of 2.7pc.

A cursory look at the animal population also reveals the trend. According to the survey, the buffalo population was 29m in the country in 2007-08. It has now gone up to 34m. The cattle population increased from 31.8m to 39.7m during the same span of time. Goats saw the figure increasing from 56.7m to 66.6m and sheep population has increased from 27.1m to 29m. Camel has not been lucky and has been constant at 1m for the last six years and so are the mules at 200,000. How much these figures are credible and how were they arrived at is the point of debate.

The experts falsify these claims through backwards integration to the market realities and point out huge gaps in them. They insist that if the country has over 170m animals, why has meat, beef and milk prices been skyrocketing in the country. All of them multiplied at neck-breaking speed in the last many years. Animal population is increasing, and so is their market scarcity. Pakistan is producing 53bn litres of milk. With milk flooding the local market, as claimed by the policymakers, import of milk (mainly dry) and its products is also increasing. The critics see a huge disconnect among different official claims and market realities, which neither politicians nor the bureaucrats are ready to appreciate for their own reasons.

An equally scathing claim is about the fodder. Where is it coming from? The fodder acreage in the country has been constant at around 5m acres for the last many years. If internationally accepted ratio of six-animals-to-one-acre is accepted, this population would need at least 1.2m acres of fodder to survive, which is more than double the actual sowing. When the government revised its figures upwards, the debate on the issue was re-kindled.

Punjab, however, has taken some initiative to correct marketing aberrations, like creating structures at district level that ensure transparency, convenience and competitiveness. It should have salutary impact on the market and correct basic picture with credible population figure, breed purity, health coverage (more of preventive rather than curative) and link them to international and local markets.

The government must realise that livestock is not only about animal population, but is directly linked with poverty in rural areas. The current policy of importing animals might help a few investors but would not touch massive majority of poor. Only correction in domestic market would provide them some relief and correct figures are the first step towards that kind of planning.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, June 23rd, 2014