AS President Hamid Karzai visits Pakistan after a year and a half, expectations are low but behind the scenes some serious work can be done if the two sides work on convergences, instead of playing up their differences. The expected focus of the meetings will be how to get the tattered reconciliation process back on track, whether in Doha, Qatar, or, as speculation increasingly suggests, in another country. President Karzai’s key demand in any reconciliation process has always been for his government to play a lead role in talks with the Afghan Taliban. But, as is widely known, the Afghan Taliban have preferred to deal with the Americans first. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s principal leverage are the Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistani custody and, less publicly stated, the sanctuary and hideouts the Afghan Taliban have in Pakistan. In the best-case scenario, then, the Pakistan and Afghan states have something to offer each other.
The problem is that the best-case scenario in Afghanistan never quite seems to materialise. In fact, the opposite is often the case. At the moment, on both the Afghan and Pakistani fronts there are more than usual complications. Mr Karzai is set to leave the presidency next April, but little about the presidential election process is clear, not least who are the leading contenders for the job. In the meantime, Mr Karzai appears determined to not be sidelined and furthermore to find some kind of way to stay relevant, and safe after April next year. On the Pakistani side, the new political government has not quite got its foreign-policy house in order, neither having established a clear pecking order at the Foreign Office nor having seriously dipped into matters of foreign policy yet. Meanwhile, the army is preparing for a change of command at the top, a change that does not fundamentally alter the army’s institutional outlook but does matter significantly for an organisation where the apex is from where all decisions flows. Hope for the best, but prepare for continuation of the status quo — that may be the best approach as President Karzai arrives in Islamabad.
