FOR the last over four years, the country has not been able to add even an acre to its existing cultivable land area, and the entire agricultural activities remain limited to 55.5 million acres.

The limiting factor is the shortage of water which restricts the country to bring more land under cultivation.

Since the commissioning of Tarbella Dam some 30 years ago, there has been no increase in water storage capacity. According to a survey of dams, the country instead has lost 28 per cent capacity (around four million acre feet) of existing dams.

According to the post-Tarbella planning, the country should have increased reservoir capacity at seven per cent per year, or around one million acre feet a year. An additional reservoir capacity of around 30maf should have been built in the country, whereas, it has lost 4maf of its original capacity – a loss of 34maf in a country where the total availability is 80maf to 110maf only, depending on the hydrological conditions.

The water supply situation can affect the final yield of any crop up to 50 per cent. And the yield of almost every crop, except a few, is on the decline. For example, the production of wheat per hectare was 2,667kg in 1999-00, which, in 2007 dropped to 2,500kg. With the increasing population at a rate of around 3.5 million per annum, the causes of present food crunch is not difficult to decipher.

The staple food picture becomes grimmer when taken in the context of experts’ view on the potential of the current seed variety (Inqalab-91) and the yield our farmers are getting from it. Experts say that Inqalab-91 has the potential to yield 70 maunds per acre, despite being 17-year-old and prone to diseases and losing vitality. Our common farmer is getting 25 maunds and a progressive farmer, who may be next door neighbour, around 45 maunds per acre. The difference between the potential yield, yields procured by a common farmer and a progressive farmer also explains the food crisis.

Similar is the case with rice production. The ‘super variety’ of rice has a potential to produce 45 maunds per acre. The common farmer gets only 25 maunds whereas the progressive farmer gets up to 35 maunds. The other cash crop, cotton, suffers from the same malady; the seed yield potential is 45 maunds against common farmers’ production of 17 maunds and progressive farmers’ output of 23 maunds.

If the existing gap between the lowest and the highest yield is bridged, Pakistan would not only come out of food crisis, but also have surplus for export.

Take the case of wheat, if the current national average of wheat can be increased by five maunds per acre, the total production (from current sowing on 20 million acres) would go up by almost two million tons, which, at the current price factor, would add Rs65 billion – or $1 billion to the economy. Similarly, if rice production goes up by five maunds per acre, the national and rural economies would get a benefit of around 30 billion from its currently crop sown on six million acres. A similar increase in cotton can pump Rs35 billion in the economy.

One can imagine the effect of $2 billion being added to the economy with a minimal effort on three crops only.

Agriculture experts reckon that it is achievable within next eight to 10 years provided the government makes a concerted effort in this direction. Simply what is needed is formulation of a sound policy with regard to provision of water, fertiliser, insecticides, certified seeds and technical and professional training to the farmers.

According to them, water plays 50 per cent role in agriculture, fertiliser 35 per cent, seed 25 per cent, and insecticide 25 per cent and cultural practices contribute 25 per cent. If the policy-makers can ensure that farmer gets required water, applies balanced fertiliser, uses certified seeds, applies weedicide and pesticides properly and timely and his cultural practices are in tune with the times, Pakistan would come out of the current food crisis.

Two areas are the most crucial to realise the goal of food autarky --. research and extension wings of the government. Research alone can make a lot of difference in the final yield through developing new high-yielding varieties of seeds and improving cultural practices. The agriculture planners will have to redefine their concept of research; it also includes management practices with developing new seeds. Research can also play a decisive role in increasing the yield and solving food shortage.

The extension service, which is supposed to take results of research to a common farmer, can also make over 60 per cent difference in yield by educating farmers on balanced use of fertiliser, weedicide and pesticides.

The government on its part should develop water resources so that farmers get water on time. No private sector would ever invest in the farm infrastructure without ensuring windfall profits, which Pakistan’s agriculture can hardly afford. Similar is the case of research. There is also need to re-energise extension services to educate, train and keep farmers informed about the latest technologies and practices.

The future of the farm economy depends on how we respond to the situation; take it as a doomsday scenario or an opportunity to rise to the occasion.