KARACHI: Osama bin Laden may be in Iran. One of the most senior American diplomats in Pakistan has said the US believes Osama may have been intercepted and detained against his will by Iranian agents while travelling along the border between eastern Iran, Balochistan and Afghanistan.

It is a journey already tried out in the past by several Al Qaeda members, may be even by Osama himself, and therefore considered safe, explains the diplomat, who agreed to talk on condition of anonymity.

According to the diplomat, the "Osama in Iran" theory already features in American intelligence reports Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan or Afghanistan. "Until last September we knew, we were sure, that he was in south Waziristan. Now we think Iran, or Yemen. These are the theories they are putting forward," he explained.

For this reason, the United States is no longer putting as much pressure on Pakistan for the military operations to continue in south Waziristan or to open up new fronts in other areas on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the diplomat said. "To open new fronts along the border risks destabilizing Pakistan and there is no reason to do that, given that we are no longer sure Osama is in that area."

The Yemen theory indicated that Osama had fled to the Gulf country, driven partly by the desire to personally head up the new Al Qaeda offensive across the border in Saudi Arabia. But the most convincing hypothesis, considering the climate of tension between Washington and Tehran over the nuclear issue, is surely the Iranian one. And this is the one the diplomat insists on pursuing.

In the past there has been talk of the possible presence of leading Al Qaeda figures in Tehran, in a militarized compound directly controlled by the Pasdaran (Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards corps).

Al Qaeda number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and one of Osama's sons are the most illustrious names rumoured to be held there. Some say the Al Qaeda men are kept in conditions of "genuine hospitality", while others say Tehran is enforcing an "obligatory stay" and keeping them "under surveillance".

Further fuelling these rumours was an announcement last year by Hassan Rohani, secretary general of the Iranian National Security Council, that Al Qaeda-linked arrests have been made and that these would lead to a future trial.

"They [the Iranians] have played these games in the past, letting whoever they pleased come and go, and freeing those who were no longer useful to them," the diplomat said.

Yet this time, Osama bin Laden himself could have become trapped in one of the Iranian intelligence "games". The Al Qaeda leader may have tried to seek temporary refuge in Iran after being forced to abandon south Waziristan, following the Pakistani and US military offensive and the arrest of a series of Al Qaeda members who could have revealed the exact location of his hiding place. Probably entering Iran through Balochistan and possibly passing through the border city of Taftan, Osama may have been taken into custody by agents from Tehran.

If that's the case, the Iranians may be considering using him as a bargaining chip to stave off possible military action from the United States. "It is a possible scenario.

They could do it, of course. What remains to be seen is how we will react," the diplomat, said, adding however that the capture of Osama no longer tops the list of Washington's priorities. "After Bush's re-election, it is no longer a priority aim. The stabilizing of Iraq and the Iranian nuclear threat come first."

The diplomat declined to comment on rumours that the United States is organizing commando operations against Tehran, using Pakistan, and in particular Karachi and the province of Balochistan, as a support base - a scenario described in a recent investigative report by the American weekly the New Yorker.

That same scenario has been confirmed by Pakistani military sources, and its plausibility is further strengthened by indications of the construction of two new American military outposts in Balochistan: the first in the vicinity of the Khuzdar airbase, and another closer to the border with Iran, at Dalbandin.

In recent weeks, the Pakistani press has also reported the presence of American commandos in Karachi, in light of the possible action on Iranian territory. According to the reports, it has been chosen as a training ground because of its geographical layout, which is very similar to that of Tehran. However, Pakistani military sources who confirmed the reports, refused to comment on what kind of action the American troops are planning. - By arrangement with ADNKRONOS-Italy.