PAKISTAN’S latest food trade figures highlight the persistence of a disturbing trend that policymakers have ignored for years: a country where nearly half the workforce is tied to agriculture is becoming increasingly dependent on imports to feed its population. The sharp rise in the food import bill, coupled with a steep decline in exports, reflects agricultural policy failures. The surge to over $7bn in food imports within nine months of the present fiscal year is difficult to digest for a country endowed with vast arable land, diverse climate and a large workforce. That this increase is driven by items such as sugar, edible oil and pulses makes it even more troubling. These are staples that Pakistan should, with the right policies, be producing in sufficient quantities domestically. This growing reliance is, in many ways, self-inflicted. For decades, Pakistan’s agricultural strategy has revolved narrowly around major crops, including wheat, cotton, sugarcane and maize. While these crops are important, the policy bias in their favour through subsidies, support prices and water allocation has pushed farmers away from other critical areas such as oilseeds, pulses and high-value crops.

Equally worrisome is the decline in food exports, underscoring not just external market pressures but also stagnation in productivity, quality and value addition. If current trends persist, the food import bill is unlikely to stabilise let alone decline. Climate change pressures, rapid population growth and persistence of global price volatility will worsen our vulnerability. For a low-income country grappling with external financing constraints, Pakistan’s rising food imports are a major drain on its meagre foreign exchange reserves. Continuing on the current path is untenable. A country that cannot sustainably feed itself risks undermining both its economic sovereignty and social stability. We have the resources and potential to correct course, but doing so will require admitting to past policy failures and acting decisively to correct them. The rice sector shows private investment in seeds and supply chains can significantly boost yields, exports and rural incomes. However, such a transition requires a policy reset, one that promotes diversification, innovation and private sector participation in other crop categories, particularly oilseeds and pulses, where our import dependence is most acute. We must align our agricultural priorities with food security, crop diversification and export competitiveness.

Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2026