WHEN the army chief speaks, listening can be instructive, especially if the chief is dilating on issues of national security and foreign policy.
In more normal times, Gen Raheel Sharif’s speech to fresh graduates of the military academy in Kakul would have been a routine affair, but context can be everything.
With violence along the LoC and Working Boundary having flared up recently, tensions with India still high, a military operation in North Waziristan looking set to continue into the winter, a new dispensation in Afghanistan and civil-military relations having taken more than a few knocks in recent months, Gen Sharif’s words were all the more important. And it is more than likely they indicated state policy direction on key issues in the near future.
On India, the message was not quite a dismal one – given the aggressive tone emanating from New Delhi under the Narendra Modi-led BJP government. But it certainly suggests that Pakistan and India are back to square one, with Pakistan insisting that normalisation and peace can only take place in an environment where the Kashmir dispute is placed front and centre.
Yet, nothing Gen Sharif said suggests that the army-led security establishment is quite looking for a solution on an urgent or innovative basis. By reiterating that the Kashmir dispute must be resolved “in accordance with the will of Kashmiri people as enshrined in the UN resolutions” the army here has signalled that it is not in fact really seeking any forward movement on Kashmir.
In reality, principled and legal as Pakistan’s long-standing formulation on Kashmir has been, the original fair and just solution is a virtual non-starter now.
Anything that does nudge the Kashmir dispute closer to resolution – as opposed to a return to the non-violent impasse of the past decade – would have to be the so-called out-of-the-box solution that Pervez Musharraf semi-championed. Clearly though, the army leadership does not believe – and it may well be right – that the Modi government is remotely interested in pursuing peace right now, let alone a resolution of the Kashmir issue.
On Afghanistan, meanwhile, Gen Sharif sounded a more conciliatory tone, essentially welcoming the Ashraf Ghani-Abdullah Abdullah governance experiment and even suggesting that the Pakistan Army will support the Afghan security forces, despite long-held reservations about the size, purpose and viability of the foreign-funded Afghan National Army.
While the army’s Afghan policy may not fundamentally have changed as yet, there are signs that if the Afghans find a way to establish relative peace and stability in their country, Pakistan will not intervene against or scuttle an internal Afghan settlement.
Finally, on internal security and Operation Zarb-i-Azb, Gen Sharif suggested that “cohesive, dedicated and timely involvement of all stake holders and state institutions is essential” for peace. But then, what has the army really done to encourage civilian input?
Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2014