LAHORE, April 15: With harvesting scheduled to be launched by the prime minister in Deepalpur (Okara) on Wednesday, planners forecast a bumper wheat crop for the fourth year running.

At the beginning of the Rabi season, the federal government had set the production target for 2003 at 19.754 million tons, which was later revised up to 20.63 million tons.

The Punjab, which produces around 80 per cent of the crop, had set a target of 15.637 million tons, which was revised up to 16.5 million tons.

In all likelihood, the experts believe, the produce would surpass the target by another million tonnes because of three crucial factors. Weather conditions have been ideal for the crop. The three-week fog spell in January saved the crop from heat and evaporation of vital subsoil moisture. Rains came at a time when the two major dams of the country had almost touched the dead level. They not only allowed second watering of the crop but also storage of enough water for the third and final watering. Had there been no rains, Pakistan would have faced a famine-like situation, they said.

Use of certified seed also made a difference. Farmers have finally been convinced about the utility of certified seed, claimed an official of the Punjab Seed Corporation (PSC).

An official of the Punjab Agriculture Department said there had also been better weed control this year. Around 40 per cent of the total area under the crop was properly rid of weeds against less than 30 per cent last year. Use of fertilisers also improved. Use of urea went up by 14 per cent and that of phosphate by five per cent.