Pakistan is blessed, and this needs to be more widely known, with about 50,000 megawatts of unutilized hydroelectric potential (two and a half times present installed power capacity), and huge water storage sites.

Yet it has suffered from shortages of electricity, as well as water, unbearably high electricity tariffs, together with the burden of billions of dollars of oil imports.

A world class water and power development organization with an excellent record upto 1976, was deliberately turned into a thermal power organization, corrupted and inefficient.

The hydel/thermal mix was degraded from 70:30 to about 30: 70. About 40 per cent of the population are still without electricity. One of Prime Minister Jamali’s first acts was to take notice of the unaffordable electricity tariffs.

In an earlier article, starting with the history of the power sector, I had explained the reasons for the criminal neglect of hydroelectric development as well as the decline of Wapda, and its abdication of its primary role of water power development. I had drawn attention to my 26 years mission for the development through hydroelectric development.

Water Power Programme: To my mind, the greatest achievement of President Pervez Musharraf’s government is the launching of Wapda’s Vision 2025 programme for water power development. The government itself does not appear to be sure of this, I gather from my conversations at the highest levels.

The decisions taken since August 2000 on water resources development are of momentous import and will have far-reaching effects on the economy. They are the best development for the country in over 26 years. Wapda’s record before 1976, is replete with tremendous development, but this programme is greater than anything it has undertaken before.

With this programme,we are finally embarked on a venture based on the fact that our most important national resource is our rivers, particularly the Indus and its tributaries falling rapidly from about 8000 ft and creating a colossal amount of stored energy (no less valuable than oil) — secure, perpetual, environmentally clean and almost free.

Furthermore, Wapda has once again been brought back to its original task of water resources and hydropower development. The deliberate impeding of the country’s water resources development has finally ended. After a brief description of the Vision 2025 programme, pointers to what further needs to be done are being given below.

Under the first part of the National Water and Power Resources Development Programme approved by the federal cabinet in August 2000, Wapda has started work on firming up the engineering studies of the first ranked and non-controversial project, Basha, which will produce 3360 MW power and 5.70 maf water storage, (as well as seven canal projects in other parts of the country). A major portion of the Basha studies have already been completed.

In January 2001, the Chief Executive approved Wapda’s proposals for undertaking studies of 15 water storage sites of Part II of Vision 2025, including Skardu over 4000 MW and a huge storage of 15.5maf, Sanjwal 3.6 maf, Akhori 3.6 maf, Bahater 0.8 maf, Rohtas 5.75 maf, Chiniot 1.40 maf and Dhok Pathan 8.50 maf and 516 MW. In Balochistan Hingol, Mirani and Naulang. In the NWFP, Gomal Zam and Kurram Tangi; and in Sindh Gaj Nai, Mol and Khadeji.

In Part III of Vision 2025, 20 sites for water storage and hydel development studies have been approved including Yugo 1000 MW; Kalam 110 MW and Khazana 110 MW; Mir Khani 150 MW; Naran 219 MW, Suki Kinari 652 MW and Patrind 133 MW. Also included are 13 more water storage sites in Balochistan, Punjab, the NWFP and Sindh.

Furthermore, undertaking the detailed designing upto tendering stage of Mangla raising, as well as that of 8 hydropower projects: Jinnah 96 MW; Malakand III, 81 MW; four off Indus sites: Allai Khawr 121 MW; Khan Khawr 72 MW; Duber Khawr 130 MW; Golen Gol 106 MW. Also Upper Jhelum Canal 97 MW and Pehur High Level, 12 MW. Feasibility studies of 591 small hydropower projects on canals and barrages have also been authorized.

The total 52 projects include the 42 very large, large and medium as well as small projects that I have been pushing. They also include the eight large projects identified in the Ranking Study of the Indus sites. Besides the first ranked Basha the programme also consists of the second ranked project Dasu 3728 MW, followed by Thakot 2415 MW, Bunji 1500 MW, Patan 1172 MW, Yugo 1000 MW; Rahikot 670 MW, Yulbo 710 MW, etc. on the main gorge of the river Indus.

The first 5 of these is the largest component: 15,887 MW. Besides these there are 11 more projects which include Munda 740 MW ; Chakoti 139 MW; to Azad Pattan 222 MW; Karot 240 MW; Mahl 245 MW; and the above-mentioned Naran, Suki Kinari and Patrind. These projects are also to be undertaken by public/private sector or as joint ventures.

The Vision 2025 also has 10 other generation projects totalling 6,497 MW to be undertaken by public/private sector or as joint ventures. These include the aforementioned Mangla 180 MW; Thal/CJ link 52 MW; Doyian 425 MW; Neelam-Jhelum 969 MW; Kohala 740 MW; Matiltan 84 MW; Gulpur 116 MW; Rajdhani 86 MW and Abbasian 245 MW. near Kohala on river Jhelum.

Way ahead: Funding. Where will the funding for these projects come from? Here the point that needs to be made is that at present the programme consists only of completing the investigations, feasibilities and engineering of the projects. The cost for all phases is only about Rs4 billion, spread over 3 to 5 years.

It is important to note that Wapda is bearing most of the cost of these feasibilities itself. Considering its projected revenue this year is Rs190 billion, it can afford this. Had there been the will, this could have been done years ago.

The encouraging fact is that the work of feasibilities and engineering on many of these projects, including most importantly, Basha, has already started. The main focus over the next over 15,20 years would have to be the waterpower sector.

The following developments augur well: Over the last two years conditions exist that make Pakistan attractive for investment. In any case, the power business is known for excellent returns.

Interest has been shown and offers made by international lending agencies and friendly countries in financing the water power programme including the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, Saudi Arabia, China, and the Asian Development Bank.

The World Bank has also shown interest in part financing. It is said that financing is also being discussed directly with China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. Interest has also been shown by well-known foreign construction firms and equipment suppliers from China, Russia, Sweden, Germany, France, Czech Republic, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, Japan and Hungary.

Interest shown in projects include Gomal and Mirani dams; and five high-head hydel projects in the NWFP. A well organized and coordinated effort is necessary for raising the required finances for all the medium and the large projects. Basha, needs to be given very high priority.

Fast track: Undoubtedly this grand development programme is the largest that has been undertaken in Pakistan. It is estimated to cost $45 billion, add 27,000 MW of power as well as 65 million acre-feet (maf), of additional water storage capacity. What is required of the new government is to get the feasibilities and engineering of these projects on the fast track, followed by their rapid construction.

With will and commitment, Basha and Dassu can have their feasibility refinement, engineering and construction completed in 6 to 7 years, as Wapda’s own documents will show.

The 10 to 15 years being mentioned ignore the tremendous progress brought by computers and GPS as well as the advances in concrete construction technology for dams. Wapda needs top management that can imbue it with the same spirit it had in its golden age, and again make it into a world-class organization.

Chinese experience: The information on low construction costs and short construction periods achieved by our great neighbour China in their hydroelectric programmes in the last three decades, has been given in other articles of mine. The methodology has to be worked out to shorten the construction periods of the medium-sized projects up to 200 MW, to the 30 to 40 months, and with efficient management ensuring that the costs are no more than $595,000 to $833,000 per MW, which the Chinese have been able to achieve.

Only cheap hydroelectricity would enable us to lower the electricity tariff. The citizens will get relief. Industry and agriculture would benefit. It should very greatly reduce our dependence on imported oil.

Railway electrification started in the 1960s needs to be extended throughout the country. Electric trolley buses should be utilized for intra-city transport.

Another tremendous related resource that has been ignored for too long and could a great boon to the economy, and on which work needs to be started, is inland waterways.

Self-reliance: An essential part of reducing poverty and raising living standards is to create employment opportunities. Water power projects can create employment for millions of Pakistanis.

It is very important that right from the beginning determination is shown that these projects will be done with maximum self-reliance. We must not again make the mistake of getting the feasibilities and engineering done solely by foreign consulting companies, nor the construction done by foreign contractors on a turnkey basis. For such a gigantic programme we need to build on our own resources of engineering and construction as well as industry, outside help can be sought in specific areas.

Equipment manufacturing: For the addition of around 40,000 to 50,000 megawatts a colossal amount of equipment will be required including turbines, generators, switch-gear, transmission materials and protection control and telecommunications equipment. It should be very attractive for large corporations to set up these industries here.

The advantages would be manifold: bringing in investment, technology as well as large-scale employment. In the engineering and construction of these projects hundreds of thousands of people would, of course, be employed. Because of these factors this water power development programme has the capacity to transform the economy and raise the living standards of the people.